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Jul 01, 2026

America's favorite beers — and the jobs tied to them — are at the center of a brewing trade fight

Trade

America's favorite beers — and the jobs tied to them — are at the center of a brewing trade fight

Economists argue 74% of Mexican beer's economic value already flows to American workers

Amanda Macias By Amanda Macias Fox News Published July 1, 2026 6:00am EDT close Tariffs would mean one of two things for beer drinkers—neither is good, economist says Video

Tariffs would mean one of two things for beer drinkers—neither is good, economist says

A new economic analysis warns that tariffs on Mexican beer could either drive up prices for consumers or reduce investment that supports thousands of American jobs.

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As the Trump administration weighs implementing tariffs on Mexican beer, a new report argues the move would hurt the very American workers it is intended to protect by squeezing one of the U.S. beer market's most profitable segments.

The report, authored by Unleash Prosperity co-founder Stephen Moore and economist David Ozgo, comes as the Trump administration continues to expand its tariff agenda, which officials say is aimed at re-shoring manufacturing, reducing trade deficits and strengthening American industry.

"There probably are some products for which tariffs are appropriate — products where there might be national security implications," Ozgo told Fox News Digital. "But obviously, beer is not one of those products."

While Mexican beer is brewed south of the border, Ozgo said most of the jobs it supports, like distribution, wholesaling and retailing, are in the United States.

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A Modelo beer can is seen on ice.

The brewer of Modelo claimed the No. 1 spot in June 2023, when Modelo Especial surpassed Bud Light on dollar sales, and it continues to rank among the country's best-selling beers (Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images)

The report backs that claim with data showing the U.S. beer business supports roughly 1.74 million jobs, but only about 5% are directly involved in brewing. Most workers are employed by wholesalers, retailers, restaurants and suppliers that handle beer after it is brewed, jobs that remain in the U.S. even when the beer is imported.

"If you end up slapping tariffs on Mexican beer, you're not protecting American workers," Ozgo said. "What you're really doing is cutting into the most profitable segment of the beer market right now and in turn putting U.S. jobs at risk."

According to the report, Mexican beer already sells for about 52% more than mass-market domestic lagers in grocery and liquor stores. The authors say those higher prices mean bigger profits for U.S. distributors, retailers, restaurants and bars, helping support more American jobs than cheaper domestic lagers.

Those higher prices create more value across the U.S. economy, the report notes.

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A woman is seen pouring beer from a tap at a bar.

Economists say the beer industry could see job cuts as tariffs increase costs for brewers and importers. (Artur Widak/NurPhoto/Getty Images)

The authors estimate that every gallon of Mexican beer generates about $26.27 in economic value. About $19.42 of that — roughly 74% — goes to U.S. businesses and workers through distribution, retail, transportation, marketing, taxes and other domestic economic activity. By comparison, leading domestic beers generate about $15.76 in total value per gallon.

Ozgo said tariffs would ultimately force brewers to either absorb the added costs, reduce investment, or pass the costs on to consumers through higher prices.

"Either the company itself has to eat the cost of the tariff, or they pass the cost to the consumer," he said. "Either outcome isn't very good."

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