World Cup odds, picks for Thursday’s knockout games including Spain and Portugal

A soccer player in a white jersey holds out one finger on his right hand.

Lamine Yamal and Spain are heavily favored to beat Austria and advance in the 2026 World Cup. David Ramos / Getty Images

By Dan SantaromitaJuly 2, 2026 5:00 am EDT Updated

The knockout stage has produced plenty of drama so far. There’s no stopping yet, with three more World Cup elimination matches on Thursday.

Spain and Portugal are in action on a day that has a distinct European flavor. Five of the six teams in action are from Europe.

Here’s a look at the odds and storylines for Thursday’s games plus picks from our betting staff.

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Spain-Austria

Time: 3 p.m. ET

TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.

Spain hasn’t wowed anyone like France or Argentina yet, but La Roja didn’t allow a goal in the group phase. Spain’s attacking ability can be put into question after being kept goalless against Cape Verde and only scoring on a goalkeeper mistake against Uruguay. Its ability to control games can’t be questioned.

To this point, Spain hasn’t faced top opposition yet, and that doesn’t exactly change against Austria either. The Austrians made it to this match with the most dramatic finish of any match so far, scoring on the last play shortly after falling behind Algeria when a loss would have eliminated them. Austria was dispatched by Argentina while managing just six shots worth 0.53 expected goals.

It’s possible Spain will struggle to score again, but it doesn’t seem likely Austria will be able to create much. That’s why Spain is such a heavy favorite (-750) to advance.

In a World Cup where the biggest stars have continued to show up in the biggest ways, Spain’s Lamine Yamal has been relatively quiet with one goal in a 4-0 win against Saudi Arabia. Yamal has played in all three games, but returned from injury off the bench in the first group match. Will this be a game where he shows he’s one of the best players in the world?

Portugal-Croatia

Time: 7 p.m. ET

TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: BMO Field, Toronto

This is a meeting of two of the generation’s best players at the end of their careers. Even at 41 years old, Cristiano Ronaldo still gets a lot of the attention despite playing as part of a star-studded Portugal team. Meanwhile, Croatia’s Luka Modrić is trying to add another memorable win for his country at 40 years old.

Neither is the singular force they once were, but both are still important to their teams.

Ronaldo will be eager to prove himself after a couple of forgettable performances in the group stage. He scored twice against Uzbekistan, but was unable to make a mark against the stronger sides of DR Congo and Colombia.

Modrić and Croatia saw England run around them at will in the opening match. The 4-2 loss raised questions of whether it was one tournament too many for the midfielder. However, Croatia managed to beat Panama and Ghana to advance.

Portugal are clear favorites to advance (-270), but it’s more balanced than many of the matches in this round.

Switzerland-Algeria

Time: 11 p.m. ET

TV: FS1 (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: BC Place, Vancouver

World Cup after dark is back in the knockout round. This late kickoff features the tightest match of the day on paper. Switzerland is favored to advance, but at just -200. Both teams are plus-money to win in regular time.

The Swiss won in Vancouver in their last group match, topping co-host Canada to win Group B and take this match. Canadian fans hoping to see their team have flooded the resale market with tickets they no longer want, making this the cheapest match of the round. Granted, the home team not being involved takes a ton of the juice out of this one, and Switzerland-Algeria isn’t exactly a powerhouse matchup.

Switzerland recovered from a shocking draw against Qatar in its first match to win the group. Algeria endured a wild 3-3 draw with Austria to advance as a third-place team.

The Swiss have often made the final 16, losing in this round in the last three and five of the last eight World Cups. Algeria has made that round once, in 2014, and has never won a knockout match.

Best bets

Dan Santaromita: Spain-Austria under 2.5 goals, -102 (FanDuel)

Spain’s defense is so good because Spain doesn’t let the other team have the ball. I’m more afraid of Spain scoring three to ruin this than Austria getting one to make this really tight.

Mike Hume: Portugal-Croatia to go to a penalty shootout, +600 (FanDuel)

Portugal may have blasted Uzbekistan, but in the last two matches against teams of quality (Colombia and DR Congo), they posted draws. Croatia may not be the elite side it once was, but it absolutely remains a team of quality. Just a gut feeling here that this one goes past extra time and gets decided on penalties. Might even toss in a low wager on Croatia to win on PKs as well (+1300).

Dean Jones: Marcos Llorente assist, +550 (bet365)

His quality often pays off in key moments for club and country. We see him make key breakthroughs at Atletico Madrid, and in Spain’s last game he recorded an assist in the 1-0 win. His key passing stats are as good as anyone in the tournament, and it would be no surprise to see him produce a significant pass that leads to a Spain goal.

Vik Chokshi: Spain to win in regulation and Spain-Austria under 3.5 goals parlay, -115 (DraftKings)

I echo Dan’s sentiment about the Spain under, but buying the extra goal there to be safe and parlaying it with Spain to just take care of business in regulation. This is a get-right game for Spain. I see them dominating this one from the jump.