Deaths will now outnumber births every year in England and Wales

Deaths have begun to outnumber births in England and Wales as the start of July marked a grim milestone dubbed ‘Death Day’, according to new analysis.

Official projections showed deaths would outpace births every year from 2026 and researchers said Britain entered a ‘new demographic era’ as this threshold was crossed yesterday.

The public will now attend more funerals than christenings as 450,000 more deaths than births are projected over the next decade due to a ‘collapse’ in the birthrate.

Earlier this year the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revised down estimates for the growth of the UK population in the coming decades due to declining birthrates and a fall in net migration.

New Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) analysis of official projections suggests the threshold at which deaths started to outnumber births in England and Wales was crossed on 1 July. This will now be the new normal.

Edward Davies, the think tank’s research director, described it as a ‘worrying milestone’ that reflects ‘decades of failure to adequately support family life’.

The fertility rate - the average number of children women are expected to have - has been falling steadily since 2012 and it hit the lowest level ever recorded last year at just 1.39.

This is well below the 2.1 children per woman required to maintain a stable population without immigration and a far cry from the concept of ‘2.4 children’ in a stereotypical British nuclear family.

The fertility rate has fallen to just 1.39 children per woman - well below the 2.1 children per woman required to maintain a stable population without immigration (stock image)

Falling birthrates have been blamed on couples delaying plans to have children due to the cost of housing and childcare, more women prioritising careers and couples opting to have smaller families.

The CSJ has warned that that the birthrate ‘collapse’ will cause government spending to soar, with public debt forecast to his 270 per cent of GDP in order to pay for Britain’s ageing population.

The think tank said that if Labour attempted to maintain today’s ratio of workers to pensioners, the state pension age would need to rise such that children aged 8 and under today would not retire until they are 75.

Mr Davies said: ‘For as long as family continues to be the F-word of politics, the government will not be in control of the seismic demographic shifts which are wreaking havoc on the public finances and depriving millions of their dreams of parenthood.’

He added: ‘We need to prioritise marriage, help young men step up to the plate, and make it easier for couples who want children to afford to have them.’

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Deaths set to outnumber births in the UK: 'Hard questions for the future'

Deaths have outnumbered births in just a handful of years since the late 1890s - in 1976, during the pandemic in 2020, and again in 2023. However this is now projected to be the case every year after 2026.

Declining birth rates in recent years have been masked by record levels of immigration, which has seen the population grow rapidly despite births and deaths remaining roughly level.

The proportion of babies born in the UK to foreign parents has also increased during that period. Official figures show that four in ten babies born last year had at least one parent who was born outside the UK.

Meanwhile some areas such as the West Midlands and London have seen the number of births increase, while other places including the North East and South West have seen a decline in the number of births.

Overall, the population is expected to grow by about 1.7 million people by 2034 up to a total of 71 million, with this increase driven entirely by migration.

The population is projected to begin to decrease in the mid-2050s, sooner than previous estimates which suggested it would continue to grow until 2096.

These projections were revised downwards due to the birth rate and falling net migration - the difference between the number of people coming to the UK and those leaving - following a record high in 2023 dubbed the ‘Boriswave’.

Burnham calls for grooming gang leader to be deported

Andy Burnham has said that ‘nothing is off the table’ as pressure grows for the leader of the notorious Rochdale grooming gang to be deported.

The prospective prime minister weighed into the row after it emerged that Shabir Ahmed, 73, will be freed from jail on Thursday.

Despite his conviction in 2012 for multiple rape and sexual offences against young girls, his victims have been told that he cannot be deported to Pakistan.

They have also expressed fears for their safety once the Rochdale gang leader is out of prison after serving 14 years in jail.

Ahmed had dual British-Pakistani citizenship and was stripped of his British citizenship following his conviction.

Mr Burnham – who is expected to replace Sir Keir Starmer by the end of this month – has said he would ask senior ministers to find a way to deport him.

He tweeted: ‘Like everyone, I want this vile criminal out of the country. Victims must come first.

‘I will ask the home and foreign secretaries to review all possible options - and they should consider nothing is off the table.’

Shabir Ahmed, 73, will be released from prison on July 2 - but cannot be deported

In 2022, when he was mayor of Greater Manchester, Mr Burnham called on the Tory government ‘to do everything within [its] power’ to deport grooming gang members.

The failure to deport members of grooming gangs has caused deep anger in communities and among victims.

In 2012, Sir Keir – then head of the Crown Prosecution Service – oversaw the jailing of the gang.

But last year, one of those jailed – Abdul Aziz – won a human rights battle that prevented his deportation to Pakistan.

Justice minister Jake Richards told the BBC's Politics Live there were long-standing issues with ‘our ability to deport foreign national offenders to Pakistan’.

‘We need to try and work on that and see whether it's possible, but in this case, it seems unlikely,’ he said.

When asked if the law should be changed to allow the deportation, he said: ‘I think it's very difficult to change the law to look retrospectively.’

But he added he was ‘absolutely looking at this individual and if he is to be released from prison, looking at what we are doing to ensure, firstly, to look after his victims and keeping the community safe’.

Meanwhile, one victim – identified only as ‘Ruby’ – said: ‘I’m scared for my safety and my kids’ safety.

‘The main ringleader is getting out of prison, who is well known in Rochdale, Oldham and Middleton, so even if he’s not in that area, he still knows people and has a chance to talk to people from that area and that makes me unsafe.’

She said victims of abuse had been given ‘false promises’ and left to ‘fend for themselves’ through a lack of support from the authorities.

Documents published online – understood to be from the Probation Service – state that he cannot be deported back to Pakistan due to provisions in the Immigration Act 1971 which bar his removal.

These are that he arrived in the UK before 1973 and has lived in the UK for at least five years before his deportation was considered.

A national inquiry into grooming gangs was announced earlier this year after the Government came under increasing criticism.

The Home Office said Ahmed's crimes were ‘appalling’ and that he would be subject to stringent licence conditions upon his release from prison.

He must initially live in supervised accommodation 24/7 and will be subject to an ‘exclusion zone’ centred on Rochdale.

Ahmed was jailed for 19 years in 2012 at Liverpool Crown Court as one of nine men in the Rochdale grooming gang convicted of offences against five girls.

Police said as many as 50 girls could have been victims of the gang, and that many of them had come from ‘chaotic’, ‘council estate’ backgrounds.

Judge Gerald Clifton said victims were treated ‘as though they were worthless and beyond any respect’ because they were not part of the gang's community or religion.

Greater Manchester Police said at the time there was no ‘racial or cultural’ element to the crimes.

A report later found that police had not acted despite multiple concerns being raised. It said there had been ‘serious multiple failures’ by police and local authorities.