The Most Deceptive Numbers Behind Predictions of a Bears Collapse

In this story:

From the very start of the offseason, the demise of the Bears in the NFC North has been predicted by analysts as well as fans of the other divisional teams.

The familiar argument goes along the lines of the Bears won too many close games last year with Caleb Williams' heroics and can't possibly do it again. They're playing the toughest schedule in the NFL. Those who like digging a bit deeper will go to the NFL's top turnover differential and their NFL high of 33 takeaways and say it can't be done again.

All of these look like valid arguments on the surface. They seem logical and even could be tied to mathematical probability.

After all, the odds Caleb Williams and Co. were going to beat Green Bay before going on to win the NFC North before Josh Blackwell recovered an onside kick were calculated at half of 1%, then it happened.

The Bears should not be required to beat such steep odds to get back to the playoffs this year despite all of the naysaying.

As Mark Twain is credited with saying, "History doesn't repeat itself, it rhymes." Actually, no one can find evidence he said this but it was Theodor Reik who wrote it in the 1960s. Whoever really did, it was astute and applicable here.

Of course it won't be exactly the same for the Bears. It's not the same circumstances, schedule or players. Nothing would be the same, but the end result can still be similar with an 11-6 or 12-5 record. There are faults with logic saying the Bears can't make the playoffs again.

1. Strength of schedule fallacy

This one gets repeated so often it has virtually become a chant. The Bears have the hardest schedule in the league going into 2026. Their opponents for this year had a .550 winning percentage last year and that is the highest winning percentage for any team in the league.

It also doesn't matter.

They're not playing last year's teams. They're playing this year's teams. The NFL changes from year to year so much that these SOS records from the prior season are essentially worthless.

An example: The Bears last year played the fourth-easiest schedule based on opponents' winning percentages at the end of the season. They played opponents with a .454 winning percentage. Only New England (.386), Denver (.426) and Dallas (.436) had easier schedules.

However, prior to last season all of the preseason predictions came out and pointed to Johnson's team facing a terribly difficult schedule. Bears opponents going into 2025 had a .571 winning percentage based on their 2024 records, even though the Bears had the last-place schedule.

It was said to be tied for the second-toughest schedule based on winning percentage. Yet, it wound up being the fourth easiest.

This happens all of the time in the NFL. Too much changes from one season to the next to pin anything on last year's records.

2. The Flawed Turnover Argument

The Bears did lead the NFL in takeaways and this argument says they'll decline because they can't possibly be turnover kings again. Compounding this is they lost key players who let them lead in takeaways.

The Bears would be only the fourth team in 40 years to lead in successive years, if they did lead in takeaways. However, who says they have to lead it again?

The Twain quote can be applied perfectly here. Just because you don't lead the league in takeaways again doesn't mean you can't be among the best at it again. If four teams did it in 40 years, you're saying there's a chance.

Also, Dallas was No. 1 in takeaways in successive years with Bears secondary coach Al Harris handling the DBs there.

San Francisco led in turnover differential in 2022 and fell off in 2023. The 49ers were third in turnover differential then in 2023. Wow, what a collapse. What's wrong with finishing in the top five if you don't lead? Nothing, really.

Former Bears coach Matt Eberflus had his Colts defense in the top 10 for takeaways four straight years. Current Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen did virtually the same thing with the Saints defenses, ranking top 10 for takeaways four out of five years between 2017-21.

Defenses that play effectively can get to the football in successive years. It doesn't matter if it's No. 1 in the league or No. 3 or 5. If they consistently go to the ball, they can be consistently among the best at takeaways.

The added argument about how they lost their top takeaway artists on defense needs to be amended slightly. They chose to get rid of those players. They weren't lost.

The Bears easily could have brought back Nahshon Wright or found a way to keep Kevin Byard. While Byard did have an NFL high in interceptions, there also were only four NFL players who gave up more touchdown passes than the seven he allowed, according to Pro Football Reference. And he tacked on another year older for 2026 at 33. The Bears got younger and faster with Coby Bryant and Dillon Thieneman.

In the last nine seasons, the only team to lead the NFL outright in turnover differential and failed to make it to the playoffs the next year was New England, when Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay (2020).

3. Close Calls Debunked

The favorite of skeptics is to look at what the Bears did in tight games and proclaim they can't do it again. They don't plan to need to do it again and shouldn't.

For one thing, the Bears weren't even one of the top five teams in winning percentage for games decided by a TD and conversion or less. This only shoots down the theory they were lucky from the start.

They did have wild finishes but were 7-4 in one-score games, so they weren't always so fortunate. That was a worse winning percentage than the Broncos (11-2), Eagles (8-4), Panthers (7-3), Patriots (7-3), Steelers (7-3), Chargers (6-2) Seahawks (6-3), and Jaguars (6-3). The seven wins was tied with four other teams for third most wins by one score. The same skepticism doesn't build up around the Broncos as it does the Bears, but shouldn't it after they won 11 times by one score or less? It just doesn't fit the narrative of Packers, Vikings and Lions fans.

Beyond that, winning in one-score games one year doesn't mean anything about the next year beyond they might have a chance to be a good team again. Some of the best teams do it well enough year to year that it becomes habit. However, other really good teams do it one year and then not the next or next two years. It's not a random number but not a requirement for being a playoff team. You just can't be terrible at it.

Kansas City is a good example. The Chiefs ranked among the best at one-score games four times this decade but not two other years. They still have been the best team overall. Green Bay has been like this., rating about half the time in the top 10 and half out.

The Eagles and Steelers, on the other hand, have made it a habit of being near the top every year at winning one-score games. Philadelphia has done it four straight years. The Steelers have been top 10 four out of five years, although it didn't translate to the playoffs for them.

The Vikings are the classic case of a team doing it one yoear, then not being able to do it the next year and completely collapsing.

There are a few cases like this but in general teams do not win a lot of close games one year and then not the next. It's more of a random number and this merely reflects flow of games. Sometimes they're in a lot of close games, sometimes more blowouts. Even better teams today don't get a lot of blowouts. The 1985 Bears are a thing of the past.

When the Eagles are in a lot of close games, no one accuses them of being a fluke.

Some of it can be traced back to coaches. They know how to handle teams in tight battles. That's how the Eagles, or Mike Tomlin's Steelers appeared up there year after year.

The Bears have not been among the better one-score teams until Ben Johnson became coach. When he was Lions offensive coordinator, Detroit had six wins by a score or less in 2024 and five in 2023. They made the top 10 both times. Last year, his Bears were top five in total wins with seven.

Is this a fluke or a trend? It's tough to say, because this is so random. but it sure looks like an uptick.

It's the same way with records of previous year's opponents and turnover differential. They say nothing about eventual win totals other than numbers can be twisted.

Like former Bears defensive coordinator Greg Blache once said, "Numbers are like your brother-in-law, they lie; they need to."

May you like

Fever coach condemns 'absolutely unacceptable' online harassment of Alys...

Indiana Fever coach Stephanie White spoke out against the online harassment Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas has been receivi...

Rescuer Finds A Plastic Backpack Sitting In The Sun — And It Isn't Empty

Daily DodoCatsRescuer Finds A Plastic Backpack Sitting In The Sun — And It Isn't EmptyIt was the hottest day of the year.By Elizab...

SCOTUS ruling ‘major setback’ to 2026 Dems, could wipe out Platner and T...

SCOTUS ruling 'major setback' to 2026 Dems, could wipe out Platner and Talarico's midterm edge...

Sign Up For the Bears Daily Digest - OnSI’s Free Chicago Bears Newsletter

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.