The Next Oil Rally Could Be Driven By Stockpile Refilling
Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,
The Middle East conflict has disrupted more than 1 billion barrels of oil supply, but China's massive strategic crude stockpile helped offset the shock by sharply reducing imports, preventing oil prices from surging even higher.
Countries are now racing to build or replenish strategic petroleum reserves, with the IEA planning to refill the 400 million barrels it released during the crisis and major importers like India looking to expand their emergency stockpiles.
This wave of reserve rebuilding could create a major new source of oil demand, supporting crude prices once the Middle East crisis fully subsides as governments prioritize energy security alongside the energy transition.
The war in the Middle East has cost the world over a billion barrels in cumulative supply losses. Yet luckily, China had built a reserve of about the same size before the closure of Hormuz, so it stopped buying so much oil, arresting the inevitable price jump. Now, everyone wants to build an oil reserve—or needs to replenish the ones they already have.
Back in March, soon after the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran began, prompting the latter to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the International Energy Agency said it would release 400 million barrels of crude from its joint emergency reserve. The reserve was set up, along with the IEA, as a response to the Arab oil embargo and other supply disruptions from the 70s, when the world was even more dependent on Middle Eastern crude than it is today.
The release announced in March worried oil market observers because it was set to be the largest ever made, much larger than what the IEA member states released in 2022 when Western sanctions on Russia following its incursion into Ukraine prompted a price spike. Back then, the IEA only released 182 million barrels. Now, member states stood ready to release 400 million barrels, plus millions of barrels from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve.
All these millions of barrels would need to be replenished once the crisis is over, or even before it is over if it drags on. Analysts have been warning about it and about the potential of this replenishment drive to lift international prices, which have remained stubbornly depressed, even amid fresh reports of new strikes between Iran and the United States. Yet on top of the replenishment drive, there are nations seeking to build their own strategic reserves to insulate themselves from future shocks.
Reuters noted in a recent report that nations that had limited oil reserves at home had felt the pain from the closure of Hormuz more sharply than those with ample reserves. Such a conclusion is, of course, a no-brainer, but it is indicative of something besides the obvious, namely, that crude oil remains the ultimate fuel of the global economy, regardless of the acceleration of transition efforts in the past decade.
Multiple reports following the outbreak of war in the Middle East said it would prompt energy importers to switch to things like wind and solar in order to reduce their dependence on those imports of crude from the Middle East. Indeed, many governments across Asia—the most vulnerable region—did double and triple down on wind and solar, but at the same time signaled they are aware these cannot replace hydrocarbons to any meaningful degree. So they also started thinking about building an oil reserve. China was the inspiration.
There seems to be a pretty comprehensive agreement among energy analysts that China played an instrumental role in keeping the world from drowning in three-digit oil prices. It did this thanks to its tendency to plan well ahead and prepare for adverse events, such as a war in the Middle East. China had been buying oil on the cheap from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela for years, building the most massive oil reserve in the world. Funnily enough, reports about the gap between Chinese crude imports and refinery run rates served to keep a lid on prices, keeping oil cheaper for longer, helping China build its reserve. And when the war came, China slashed imports and dug into its oil inventories.
Following China’s example may be quite a challenge, though it seems simple on the face of it. The challenge, of course, is financial. India, for instance, wants to boost its own oil reserve, which is currently unacceptably low, covering just eight days of imports. The government has already instructed state major ONGC to add 13 million barrels to its crude reserve, but those 13 million barrels will not go a long way in case of shortages—and buying enough oil to help in case of shortages would cost tens of billions of dollars. India, by the way, is not the only large oil importer thinking of boosting its oil reserves. And China will need to refill its reserve, as will IEA members.
What this means is that demand for crude oil is about to rise the moment there is an indication that the crisis in the Middle East is over, for real this time. Even the International Energy Agency—of peak oil demand fame—said in its latest monthly oil report that it expected global oil demand to rebound to 2 million barrels daily in 2027, after dipping by 1.1 million barrels daily this year due to the crisis and its effect on supply and prices. In good news for buyers, the news of stronger demand would probably push oil prices lower.
Badenoch blasts 'moaning' female Labour MPs over Burnham jobs 'quota'
Kemi Badenoch has told Labour women to earn a job in Andy Burnham's Cabinet instead of demanding they are handed jobs because of their gender.
The Tory leader lashed out today amid reports that female MPs are demanding the de-facto new prime minister introduce a 50:50 gender split 'quota' in his government.
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister also complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts.
But in a scathing article in the Times today Mrs Badenoch told them to 'stop moaning' and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'.
'There are many, many reasons why you shouldn't have any Milibands in the cabinet,' she said.
'But complaining that the boys haven't given them the right jobs or that the boys are taking all the jobs, just shows that Labour's women still don't get it.'
The idea of quotas was also attacked by Baroness Jacqui Smith, Labour's Skills Minister.
Asked by Times Radio if Mr Burnham should reserve jobs for women, she said: 'No, I think what Andy Burnham should be doing is building the very best team around him to change this country.'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband (above, right, in 2010) is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts
But Mrs Badenoch told them to pipe down and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party and seen by the BBC has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs after he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer.
'We are asking you to demonstrate this change from day one and address the toxicity and misogyny within our own party and government,' it said.
Labour has never had a female leader, while the Conservatives have had three, and Mrs Badenoch urged the government to follow its meritocratic example.
'If you run a meritocracy, then you do not have to worry about jobs for the boys,' she wrote.
'Every woman who is a Conservative MP, every woman who has ever won the leadership, has had to fight to get where she is.
'By contrast, Labour women are demanding guarantees from Burnham. But the truth is he doesn't have to give any guarantees.
'If none of Labour's women are prepared to get their hands dirty and challenge him for the leadership, their demands are toothless.'
'In fact, it's quite revealing that the women's parliamentary Labour Party has written to Burnham asking him to commit himself to at least 50 per cent female ministers.
'This has nothing to do with meritocracy. It is yet more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country.'
Venezuela Fury and Noah Price subsidising their life by livestreaming
Venezuela Fury and her husband Noah Price look to be making their own way in the world by raking it in from their lucrative social media accounts.
The influencer daughter of Tyson and Paris Fury, 16, has become an internet sensation after tying the knot with her husband Noah, 19, earlier this year.
Since getting married and moving in together the couple have been earning thousands of pounds a month, livestreaming their life as newlyweds in their static caravan in the East Riding of Yorkshire.
And fans can't get enough of their regular life updates on TikTok and Kick, which have proved to be very profitable for the pair.
They look to be supporting themselves after Noah denied that he was given £5million by Venezuela's family as a wedding gift.
Despite his wife's huge family wealth, an estimated combined £160 million, Noah recently told his Kick followers that he 'pays for everything' for the couple.
Making light of the claims about Venezuela's millionaire financial status, Noah said: 'I actually pay for everything unfortunately. You'd expect the millionaire to pay for it wouldn't you.'
Venezuela Fury and Noah Price are earning thousands livestreaming their caravan life - after her new groom insisted he pays all the bills and denied he had £5m handout from her dad
The influencer daughter of Tyson and Paris Fury , 16, has become an internet sensation after tying the knot with her husband Noah, 19, earlier this year
Venezuela then asked their fans: 'Do you think I am a millionaire?'
Noah joked: 'She isn't a secret millionaire guys', before she broke into song and sang: 'But I live like a millionaire!'
But it seems according to estimated calculations from their social media work, Noah and Venezuela can more than afford to support themselves.
Noah has been livestreaming on platforms such as Kick and TikTok, where viewers can send paid gifts or donations.
He was previously encouraging viewers to send gifts on his honeymoon during livestreams, suggesting this is one revenue stream.
Both Noah and Venezuela have built substantial followings on Instagram and TikTok. They can potentially earn money through sponsored posts, brand collaborations, affiliate links and creator payouts.
Kick allows its creators to take home 95 per cent of the £4.99 subscription cost that fans pay.
Streamers keep 100 per cent of direct tips and donations, minus minor standard payment processing fees.
It is unclear how many subscribers Noah currently has because this information is hidden, but he does have 7,200 followers which is publicly viewable.
An industry insider has suggested Noah is making around £400 per video on TikTok, while Venezuela is likely to make £2,000 due to her following count of 1.3 million.
An industry insider has suggested Noah is making around £400 per video on TikTok, while Venezuela is likely to make £2,000 due to her following count of 1.3 million
In one video on their honeymoon, Noah asked his followers if they'd give them some more gifts now that they were married.
In a TikTok live viewed by 20,000 he said: 'Keep liking our videos people, keep sending gifts.'
After saying thank you to several of his followers he joked they should stick around on the livestream and 'watch Venezuela punch me in the mouth'.
The other half of the honeymooning couple said: 'I am, honestly!'
Noah previously confirmed that the pair don't share their finances after they were asked whether they have a shared bank account.
'She earns her money, I earn mine,' said Noah, as Venezuela joked: 'Yeah, what you gonna do about it.'
Noah went on to debunk the rumour that Tyson gave him £5million when he tied the knot with his daughter as he insisted: 'No Tyson did not give me £5million'.
Meanwhile Venezuela is being eyed up by executives for a fly on the wall TV series.
Noah went on to debunk the rumour that Tyson gave him £5million when he tied the knot with his daughter as he insisted: 'No Tyson did not give me £5million'
Boasting 1.3 million TikTok followers, Venezuela is already entertaining fans with her honest musings and candid moments, from cooking to kitting out her and Noah's static caravan home.
And following the success of the Netflix series At Home With The Furys, it is no wonder bosses are wanting to draw on the Fury popularity.
A TV insider said: 'The couple are not A-list celebrities but everyone has become obsessed with their love story.
'People are genuinely intrigued by them. Whether it’s the fact they have married so young, Venezuela’s famous family or their gypsy lifestyle, they have the ‘X factor'.
'Several TV executives think a proper fly-on-the-wall series following their lives as newlyweds in the gypsy community would be fascinating,' they told The Sun.
It is thought Netflix would be likely to produce the series due to their already established relationship with the Furys.
Venezuela's representatives told The Daily Mail: 'We have many offers on the table regarding Venezuela which we are discussing.'
