NHL Offseason

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NHL UFA guide: Which teams should add in free agency, which should sit it out

Anaheim Ducks defenseman John Carlson takes a slap shot.

Defenseman John Carlson is one of the top free agents and would look good with the Hurricanes or the Lightning. Kiyoshi Mio / Imagn Images

By Dom LuszczyszynJune 30, 2026 6:00 am EDT Updated

With free agency opening up tomorrow, it’s a good time to check in with where every team currently stands entering the offseason.

Should your favorite team buy or should they stand pat? That all depends on their needs, their timeline, their cap space and whether or not they’re anywhere close to contention.

The goal of today’s team offseason guide is to figure all of that out, first by separating teams into loose tiers of contention. Think of this as a short preview before everything changes tomorrow and the real season previews start dropping in September.

Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier. Projected cap space is a rough estimate assuming each team’s RFAs are signed to their projected contracts via AFP Analytics.

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Contenders

Carolina Hurricanes

Timeline: Contention
Needs: None
Projected cap space: $3.7 million

The Hurricanes won it all last season and they don’t look to be going away anytime soon. The youth of many of their key pieces means the window is just opening and they look likely to enter the year as the team to beat.

That doesn’t mean the team will rest on its laurels, though, and they showed that by acquiring John Carlson’s UFA rights. He could be a huge offensive addition to an already-stacked blue line, one that would push the Hurricanes even further ahead of the pack.

Signing Carlson could mean Alexander Nikishin shakes loose, but that’s a more than worthy trade-off given the value Carlson still adds.

Other than that, the team looks set with everyone but Frederik Andersen returning.

Winners and losers from the 2026 NHL DraftScott Wheeler

Colorado Avalanche

Timeline: Contention
Needs: Top-nine forward
Projected cap space: $4.8 million

This roster looks fairly set without much need, though they could use a high-end top-nine player after all the shifting in the bottom six. The depth looks a fair bit weaker after shipping off Ross Colton and Jack Drury, though Zachary L’Heureux is an underrated addition. The Avalanche will remain a Central Division heavyweight next season regardless of what they do this summer.

Dallas Stars

Timeline: Contention
Needs: None
Projected cap space: -$4.7 million

In an exploding cap environment, almost every team has a ton of flexibility to work with — except Dallas, whose projected RFA contracts for Jason Robertson and Mavrik Bourque push its projected cap space into the negatives.

Something’s gotta give here and that makes Bourque a serious offer-sheet threat. He’s worth roughly the same as Mackie Samoskevich, who was traded for a first and a second; the $4.78-7.16 million offer sheet tier could be seriously prohibitive for Dallas. Heck, four late firsts might just be worth it for Robertson, too.

Dallas is one of the closest teams to Carolina as is, but the likelihood of losing one of Robertson or Bourque makes it a much more precarious position. Losing either would be a sizeable hole that would be tough to fill with no money to do so.

Is Tyler Seguin movable? That might be the only way out of this jam — aside from some cap space shenanigans in a potential Thomas Harley for Zach Werenski swap, that is.

Edmonton Oilers

Timeline: Contention
Needs: Two top-six forwards, goaltending
Projected cap space: $5.9 million

It’s truly incredible how inefficiently the Oilers have spent money throughout the Connor McDavid era. That he gave the team a $7.5 million pay cut and they spent it on Tristan Jarry and depth pieces is deplorable.

The Oilers, because they have three of the best players in the world and play in the league’s softest division, remain a contender going into next season. But they’d be a lot closer to the teams to beat with some legitimate top-six talent on the roster. That they’re this good while being two shy is a testament to McDavid and friends — and a stain on a front office that has continuously failed to surround the top players with capable talent.

Edmonton may have enough money to add one big forward piece and that could do the trick. Two difference-making pieces would be a lot more ideal. That’s where a Darnell Nurse trade comes in, and that could make all the difference here. The Oilers need to do something up front.

Florida Panthers

Timeline: Contention
Needs: Goaltending
Projected cap space: $6.1 million

Florida’s forward group: Flawless.

Florida’s defense corps: Strong, if the top pair can bounce back.

Florida’s goaltending: Uhhh, nonexistent. Literally, with both Sergei Bobrovsky and Daniil Tarasov unlikely to return as UFAs.

With only $6.1 million in space, the Panthers have put all their resources into their skater group — as they should. But this problem currently being unsolved means Florida isn’t quite on Carolina’s level at the moment.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Timeline: Contention
Needs: Top-six forward, No. 1 defenseman
Projected cap space: $10.0 million

The love affair between my model and the Lightning continues going into next season, even after they face-planted in the first round in a winnable playoff series.

John Carlson could put this team over the top depending on what Victor Hedman has left to offer. But if that doesn’t work out (especially as the Hurricanes have traded for his rights), a top-six forward add would be the team’s best use of space. Tampa Bay’s depth has improved over the last year, but the Lightning could still use a legit player to play with their big five talents.

Dark horses

Buffalo Sabres

Timeline: Ascending
Needs: Franchise forward
Projected cap space: $5.3 million

At long last, the Sabres are a playoff team. And even without Alex Tuch in the fold, they should stay that way next season — though a hyper-competitive Atlantic Division may have something to say about that.

Buffalo doesn’t have much current cap space to make a big splash and the team’s biggest need doesn’t really look like something that can even be addressed this summer anyway. What the Sabres need most is a forward who can push Tage Thompson down into a more appropriate fit as a top sidekick. It’s high-end talent up front that’s the biggest separator between Buffalo and the teams above.

Minnesota Wild

Timeline: Contention
Needs: Two top-six forwards, one top-nine forward
Projected cap space: $12 million

If Mats Zuccarello is indeed heading to market, it makes the prioritization of Michael McCarron on a bloated contract even more perplexing.

Without Zuccarello, the Wild will be two top-six forwards short, leaving the team in a precarious position toward contention — even with all that star power. The Wild will have around $12 million to play with and two major holes to fill. Suddenly, spending almost $9 million on a fourth line doesn’t look so hot.

With the ascent of Jesper Wallstedt, moving Filip Gustavsson feels like the best bet to free up cap space, but he’ll be out to start the season. As things currently stand, the Wild look way too thin up front to belong in the next tier. With Quinn Hughes’ contract status looming, that’s a vulnerable position to be in.

Montreal Canadiens

Timeline: Ascending
Needs: Top-six forward, top-nine forward
Projected cap space: $5.5 million

The Canadiens are a team on the rise, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them take a slight step back next season after several career years. Even with that in mind, they look like a solid playoff team as is.

Montreal will be a little tight on cap space once its RFAs are signed, though offloading half of Brendan Gallagher’s deal helps. The Canadiens’ biggest needs will be beefing up the middle six. I like their core four, but there’s a steep drop-off after them that was exposed against Carolina.

Vegas Golden Knights

Timeline: Contention
Needs: Forward depth, defensemen depth
Projected cap space: $11.7 million

Vegas always finds a way, but I can’t say I’m enamored by the Golden Knights shipping Pavel Dorofeyev away in the middle of their contention window. If they did that in order to overspend on Rasmus Andersson, it’ll be an even bigger blight. It’s the reason Vegas sits in this tier and not the one above.

Having said that, this is still a strong team with a solid top nine and top four (I believe in Kaedan Korczak), where the only small needs are depth around the edges. A solid third pair and one more third-liner is all Vegas really needs.

Washington Capitals

Timeline: Win now
Needs: Franchise forward
Projected cap space: $17.1 million

On paper, Washington’s roster looks fairly set after the acquisitions of Alex Tuch and Jordan Kyrou; the Capitals look like a solid playoff bet next year as a result. I worry about the ultimate ceiling, but make no mistake, this is going to be a good team that should be among the league’s deepest.

And yet the team still has $17.1 million in cap space left over with a glaring need for high-end talent. Some of that could end up with Alex Ovechkin should he come back. Otherwise, the Capitals have franchise-forward money leftover and no one available who fits the bill. Does Jason Robertson make sense here?

Playoff hopefuls

Boston Bruins

Timeline: Win now
Needs: Two top-line forwards, one top-four defenseman
Projected cap space: $7.9 million

While I’m not particularly high on the Bruins and expect some regression next season, they should remain firmly in the playoff mix thanks to their collection of star players.

JJ Peterka was a nice start, but he still only profiles as a second-line player. David Pastrnák needs a lot more help than that up front. The Bruins would probably need to reacquire their third-round pick to get into the offer-sheet game, but that could be an interesting route for a team that could use an influx of prime-aged talent.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Timeline: Ascending
Needs: Franchise forward
Projected cap space: $6.9 million

It’s impossible not to feel for Blue Jackets fans with the latest news that neither of the team’s two best players, Zach Werenski and Kirill Marchenko, are likely to re-sign after their next deals are up. Every time the team gets close, the best guys bail — and yes, the Blue Jackets look close going into next season.

As the team currently stands, they’re near the top of the list of playoff hopefuls, especially in a very soft Metro Division. The addition of Valeri Nichushkin was big and the team has some really strong depth that’s on the rise, as they showed last season.

If winning is all Werenski and Marchenko care about, I wonder if it’s worth being patient to show them that’s a real possibility in Columbus. If it’s something more, an ascending team is in a very tough spot: on the cusp, just as the top dogs are about to jump ship. Blue Jackets fans deserve so much better.

Los Angeles Kings

Timeline: Should consider rebuilding
Needs: Top-line forward, top-nine forward, forward depth
Projected cap space: $12.8 million

On the plus side, the Kings might be the third-best team in the Pacific on paper. On the downside, that sure isn’t saying much and they have the two other California teams nipping at their heels, very likely to usurp them — if not this year, then definitely beyond. The Kings are on the precipice of purgatory.

The Kings could buy their way out of this jam with some forward additions, but even adding the best three available doesn’t change anything. They’d still be a non-contender sitting behind Edmonton and Vegas in the Pacific hierarchy.

The other direction may be the savvier option for a team with an extremely limited ceiling that looks to have botched its mini-rebuild. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but even tougher would be building toward nothing just to get back to this point.

New Jersey Devils

Timeline: Win now
Needs: Franchise defenseman, top-six forward
Projected cap space: $3.4 million

New Jersey’s needs are well-documented by now, with the Devils needing help up front for Jack Hughes and for his brother Luke to step up himself. If those two things happen in unison, the Devils should be a solid playoff team, but they may need to do some contract wrangling to squeeze in a legit top-six forward.

New York Rangers

Timeline: Declining
Needs: One top-nine forward, two top-four defensemen
Projected cap space: $22.6 million

Everyone knows what the Rangers need and it’s an entire second pair. Adam Fox is great and Vladislav Gavrikov was defensively strong in his first season. But the rest? Yuck.

Their options aren’t great, which is unfortunate in a year where they actually have the money to find it. Another year of mediocrity looms if they don’t. The Rangers having elite pieces like Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox means there’s more ceiling than a team like the Kings. With clear places to add big wins on defense, there is a path back to competing, no matter how slim, and the addition of Pavel Dorofeyev helps.

Worth noting for any offer-sheet hopes: The Rangers do not have their second-round pick next year, which limits them to $7.16 million. Alexander Nikishin may be the only guy who fits the bill.

Ottawa Senators

Timeline: Win now
Needs: Franchise forward, fourth-line depth
Projected cap space: $9.3 million

Ottawa’s defense remains stacked and the Senators have a pretty strong top nine too. Even with Brady Tkachuk, though, the problem was at the top of the lineup. Hard to see a big addition coming there with Jason Robertson unlikely to join, but Ottawa should still find strength in being a deep team. The Senators will need some key bottom-six adds to realize that.

Philadelphia Flyers

Timeline: Ascending
Needs: Franchise forward, franchise defenseman
Projected cap space: $18.5 million

Zach Werenski really would be the perfect fit here. Franchise types — at both forward and defense — are really all the Flyers are missing from a team that looks extremely deep otherwise. I wonder if they go the offer-sheet route to get it because otherwise, free agency has very little to offer the Flyers.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Timeline: Should be rebuilding
Needs: Top-pair defenseman, goaltending
Projected cap space: $34.9 million

Last year was awesome, but it still ultimately ended in a short opening-round defeat. Now reality sets in as lightning feels unlikely to strike twice.

If the Penguins do add, it’s defense that they need desperately — especially as Kris Letang’s game continues to sag. They have all the money in the world to spend, but there also aren’t many legit options to help with their problems. It’s probably not worth the future headache.

St. Louis Blues

Timeline: Win now
Needs: Middle-six forward, top-four defenseman
Projected cap space: $4.2 million

The Blues are really tough to judge because they have ended each of the past two seasons showcasing a ton of potential for elite-level play. The end result ends up being several shades of mid, but those flashes are tantalizing.

The Blues won’t have a lot of room after re-signing RFAs, so they will probably have to choose between their two major needs. Even with the addition of Brandon Carlo and the way Logan Mailloux finished last season, my inclination would be to add a defenseman here.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Timeline: Win now
Needs: Franchise defenseman, two middle-six forwards
Projected cap space: $14.8 million

The Leafs have had a strong offseason so far that should get them back into the playoff mix. But in a tough Atlantic, they still remain on the outside looking in. If the goal remains to win a Stanley Cup in this era, getting Auston Matthews to stay is imperative and that means convincing him this team can still contend. They need to add.

Nabbing Werenski is the obvious home run that can get the Leafs back on track. But even beyond that, Toronto has a lot of cap room to beef up their middle six; that should be their primary goal on July 1.

Utah Mammoth

Timeline: Ascending
Needs: Franchise defenseman, fourth-line options
Projected cap space: $18.5 million

Credit to the Mammoth: they played a sharp first round against Vegas. Aside from Mikhail Sergachev being miscast as a No. 1 defenseman and some weak fourth-line options, there’s a lot to like here.

A top-six addition could help, but it may be best to stay the course unless Utah can take a big swing. The Mammoth would be an interesting offer-sheet candidate, but aside from that, it may not be worthwhile to spend big in free agency.

Winnipeg Jets

Timeline: Declining
Needs: An entire second line
Projected cap space: $14.6 million

If Connor Hellebuyck is in peak form, the Jets should flirt with a playoff spot next season. The question is whether they should want to. For market reasons, it may be tough to pivot to a rebuild, but if the Jets are aggressive about it, the move may be easier to sell than the current reality of being a mild wild-card threat.

If the Jets can add a 2C this summer, sure, go nuts. Otherwise, it might be prudent to start exploring what the haul for some of their stars would be to jump-start a rebuild. That starts with Hellebuyck, but it should not end there. No half measures.

On the rise

Anaheim Ducks

Timeline: Ascending
Needs: Top-pair defenseman, top-four defenseman, top-nine depth
Projected cap space: $21.3 million

I like a lot of Anaheim’s core, but it’s tough to put them in the tier above given all the holes on the roster. Yes, they made it to the second round last year, but that was in a soft division where they entered the playoffs with the worst goal differential among playoff teams. The Ducks are further than they look based on last year’s results and it doesn’t help that they’ve lost a lot of talent this offseason.

In particular, the team’s defense corps looks to be in shambles. Jackson LaCombe is fantastic, but he may be the team’s only legit top-four option. Jacob Trouba and Radko Gudas may not be much, but the alternative currently looks much bleaker.

San Jose Sharks

Timeline: Ascending
Needs: Two top-pair defensemen
Projected cap space: $40.1 million

Everyone in hockey knows exactly what the Sharks need. While I don’t think they’re as close to competing as last year’s point total suggests, it’s hard to deny the level of young talent they’ve already amassed led by Macklin Celebrini. With him, the Sharks project to have an above-average forward group next season.

Defense is obviously a different story. The Sharks need some true top-four options, preferably even stronger than that. Right now, the Sharks have a bottom-five group. They need to aggressively add here.

Lottery hopefuls

Calgary Flames

Timeline: Rebuilding
Needs: High-end talent
Projected cap space: $13.4 million

One of the few bottom-feeding teams that understands where they are right now. Good on them.

Chicago Blackhawks

Timeline: Still rebuilding
Needs: Two top-six forwards, two top-nine forwards, two top-pair defensemen, one top-four defenseman
Projected cap space: $32.0 million

For most of the lottery hopefuls, the needs are “high-end talent” to denote what the goal should be: adding a blue-chip building block via the draft. Since the Blackhawks are convinced it’s time to leave that stage, I’ve decided to list every hole in this team’s lineup. And that’s probably being generous.

If the Blackhawks can add all those pieces this summer via free agency, they can make a play toward relevancy. Seismic growth from their youth movement could help, too. But as things stand right now, it sure feels like the Blackhawks are hitting the accelerator too early. They’re not ready and that’s an okay thing to accept. It’s still early in the process and while the Blackhawks should add to get away from the malaise of the league’s bottom three, they should be realistic about where that leads them next season and not be overly aggressive. The present is still too bleak to risk a still bright future.

Detroit Red Wings

Timeline: Back to the drawing board
Needs: Franchise forward, middle-six depth, two top-four defensemen
Projected cap space: $21.2 million

Here’s the ugly truth: Even with Dylan Larkin around, the Red Wings would be a lot closer to this tier than any other as the obvious worst team in the Atlantic.

That’s a tough pill to swallow after 10 straight years of futility, but it may be a blessing in disguise if the Red Wings can right the wrongs of 2022 and go back to the drawing board. The Red Wings left the accumulation stage of the rebuild too early and have paid the price for it.

Detroit needs to start re-accumulating, and fast, to time it right with the primes of Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider. Otherwise, the Red Wings may end up right back here in five years. They’re not getting out of this jam via free agency and half measures that just lead to 80-point seasons.

Nashville Predators

Timeline: Should be rebuilding
Needs: High-end talent, top-pair defenseman, top-four defenseman
Projected cap space: $20.7 million

While I like the two pieces new GM Chris MacFarland has brought over from Colorado, neither Ross Colton nor Jack Drury is enough to make the Predators a threat next season. With an aging core that looks less capable with each passing year, the Predators should be focused on the future starting this year.

New York Islanders

Timeline: Should be rebuilding
Needs: High-end forward talent, top-pair defenseman
Projected cap space: $8.6 million

Good on the Islanders for sticking around in the playoff race for so long last year on the back of a heroic season from Ilya Sorokin. But if Matthew Schaefer’s electric debut has shown us anything, it’s that the front office owes it to a loyal fanbase to do this thing right and build around Schaefer. Properly.

With an aging roster that doesn’t look particularly close to competing, the goal should be to add at least two more top-five picks over the next few years to add to Schaefer. Plugging holes with Band-Aid solutions via free agency won’t do much.

Seattle Kraken

Timeline: Should be rebuilding
Needs: High-end talent
Projected cap space: $22.3 million

Many out there commend the Kraken for taking a big swing in an attempt to land Jason Robertson. Not me. While Robertson is what the Kraken are missing, Seattle is nowhere close to being just one piece away. It’s not that Robertson alone doesn’t bring Seattle close to contention; it’s that he alone doesn’t even make them a playoff team — the Kraken would literally still be in this tier! And it sure seems like Robertson knows that, given he turned down $120 million.

It’s time to accept reality here. No sense buying to finish just outside the top five again; Seattle needs to commit to a proper rebuild.