NFL offseason power rankings: No. 26 Atlanta Falcons showed some progress, but can it carry over?

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As nice as it was for the Atlanta Falcons to beat the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams last season, and as encouraging as it was for them to win their last four games, it also showed something had to change.

Being the type of team that could beat the Bills and Rams yet finish 8-9 in one of the worst divisions in NFL history was a glaring sign of underachievement. Many teams might have stuck it out with head coach Raheem Morris after that final four-game winning streak. The Falcons rightfully wondered where that level of play had been all season and fired Morris. They hired Kevin Stefanski, who had just been fired by the Cleveland Browns, to replace him.

"At the end of the day, I didn't think we achieved the level that we're capable of," Falcons owner Arthur Blank said, via the team's site. "The expression that I often use is: Good is the enemy of great. I think we're capable of getting to another level."

The Falcons are a conundrum. They have some very talented players, including running back Bijan Robinson and receiver Drake London, who just signed a four-year, $141 million extension. They also have plenty of holes on offense around those stars. The defense was better last season but probably won't be good enough to carry the team where it wants to go. Things got murkier on that side of the ball when 2025 first-round draft pick James Pearce Jr. was charged with multiple felonies after Pearce allegedly stalked WNBA player Rickea Jackson and caused a collision as Pearce pursued Jackson in a car (those charges can be dropped if Pearce completes an intervention program, though he still could face NFL punishment).

And the quarterback situation went from promising to a complete mess in a year. The Falcons thought they were onto something with Michael Penix Jr. after a fairly good finish to the 2024 season. Then Penix struggled and his season came to an end when he suffered a knee injury that led to ACL reconstruction surgery, continuing his spotty health history dating back to college. The Falcons got Tua Tagovailoa cheaply as the Dolphins pay all but the veteran's minimum portion of his salary this season, but Tagovailoa's play has fallen off the past two seasons. It's worth the $1.2 million the Falcons are paying to see if Tagovailoa can be a reliable insurance policy, but it's not like Atlanta should expect much more.

It didn't help that the Falcons practically sat out of free agency and didn't have a first-round pick due to a 2025 draft day trade with the Rams that was ripped at the time and looks even worse now after Pearce's offseason. The Falcons signed only two outside free agents to more than $5 million total this offseason: kicker Nick Folk and punter Jake Bailey, who each got two-year, $9 million deals. Don't get too excited, Falcons fans.

Stefanski could be a good hire. He didn't ultimately succeed as Browns head coach, but that has been an impossible job for decades. Stefanski won two NFL Coach of the Year awards, and while that award is confounding at times, it shows he's a competent leader.

It wouldn't take much for the Falcons to stumble into a division title. Spoiler alert: We'll see all four NFC South teams pretty low on this countdown. There is enough talent on hand to achieve the modest goal of winning the NFL's worst division, especially if Penix is healthy and continues to grow.

But nothing seems bankable for the Falcons. Are they the team that went 4-0 to end the season or the one that was 4-9 to start it? Are Robinson, London and tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. enough to lead a better offense, or will lack of depth and quarterback issues drag them down? Is Stefanski the answer? What's the ceiling for the defense? How do things get better on a roster level after practically sitting out the offseason?

With all those questions, it's a good thing the Falcons don't play in a better division.

Offseason grade

The Falcons didn't have much salary cap space before free agency. But other teams were in a similar bind and managed to make some moves. Signing Kyle Pitts Sr. to a three-year, $54 million extension was logical and was practically the extent of the Falcons' significant free-agent moves. The Falcons signed a kicker and punter to matching two-year, $9 million deals and the rest of the additions were even cheaper deals on veterans looking for a chance, like offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor, running back Brian Robinson and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Some of those moves could work out, but nothing on paper moves the needle.

The NFL Draft class was thin because the Falcons made the impetuous decision to trade a 2026 first-round pick to the Rams to move up 20 spots from the second round and draft James Pearce Jr. in 2025. The pick Atlanta traded away ended up being 13th overall. The Falcons didn't draft until No. 48 when they took cornerback Avieon Terrell, the brother of Falcons star A.J. Terrell. Avieon might end up starting across from his brother because Atlanta has a big need there. The only other pick the Falcons made in the top 133 was third-round receiver Zachariah Branch, a tough evaluation because he is athletic but an overwhelming amount of his touches came at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Falcons lost linebacker Kaden Elliss and cornerback Dee Alford, and a good backup running back in Tyler Allgeier. New Falcons general manager Ian Cunningham clearly wanted to get the cap in order. But unless you're a huge fan of kicker Nick Folk or punter Jake Bailey, what other grade can you give this curiously quiet offseason?

Grade: F

Quarterback report

The first question in the Falcons' quarterback room is whether Michael Penix Jr. will be ready for the start of the season after ACL surgery in November. He was participating in the offseason program by mid-May, which is a good sign.

If Penix is ready, then the Falcons will have a decision to make.

Penix hasn't done enough in 12 starts to establish himself as the team's quarterback of the future. He hasn't been terrible, but the Falcons need more out of the eighth pick of the 2024 draft. Tagovailoa is an interesting case. He led the NFL in passer rating in 2022, passing yards in 2023 and completion percentage in 2024. But his play fell off the past two seasons as concussions became a big part of his NFL story. That's why Miami cut him, taking on an NFL record $99.2 million dead cap hit just to move on.

The Falcons have way more invested in Penix and that has to give him an edge if the competition is close. Atlanta is hoping one of their quarterbacks emerges as a solid starter.

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