Did MLB change the balls again? Plus: *This* Willson Contreras ejection was actually earned
Did MLB change the balls again? Plus: *This* Willson Contreras ejection was actually earned
The league insists the uptick in home runs is not due to the baseballs, but a “variation in performance.” Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today
By Levi Weaver and Andy McCulloughJuly 1, 2026 2:02 pm EDT UpdatedThe Windup Newsletter ⚾ | This is The Athletic’s MLB newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Windup directly in your inbox.
The baseballs have seemingly changed yet again, and the home runs are flying. Plus: Benches cleared in Boston, Andy McCullough returns to the mailbag and Chris Paddack’s agent has the opportunity to do something very funny. I’m Levi Weaver — welcome to The Windup!
Drag Rates: Is MLB changing the balls again?
Last week, I saw a tweet by our Eno Sarris suggesting that lower drag in June was causing a huge uptick in home runs.
Today, Sarris and Evan Drellich posted their findings. It’s not great!
Let’s start with this visual, courtesy of Baseball Savant:
So, what are we looking at?
In layman’s terms, the higher up on that chart we go, the more drag — aka, how much the air slows down a ball in flight — on batted baseballs. The lower the point, the less drag — which means batted balls go further.
Back in 2019, players were ahead of reporting on this, telling anyone who would listen that baseballs were flying further than usual.
- The numbers bore that out: 6,776 home runs were hit that year, breaking the previous record of 6,105 in 2017, and jumping by nearly 1,200 from 2018.
- In no other year before or since has that total surpassed 6,000.
- (2018, by the way, is when MLB became part owners of ball manufacturer Rawlings.)
- In 2021 and 2022, the reporting caught up to the players. Bradford Willam Davis worked with astrophysicist Meredith Wills, and reported that MLB used two different balls in 2021, and as many as three in 2022.
But back to the chart. In 2019, as expected, the drag was very low. You can see how it increased in those years reported by Davis and Wells, too. You can also see how the drag has drastically dropped from May to June this year. And the home runs are flying out at the rate you’d expect, given those numbers. So what’s happening?
MLB acknowledges a manufacturing error, but says it’s only superficial — that a problem with the yarn caused some balls to be slightly more yellow in color. The league insists the balls are within the acceptable range of quality control, and we’re just seeing a “variation in performance.”
Hmm …
More on this: Eno and DVR hopped on “Rates & Barrels” to explain further what we know.
Middle Relief: Optimism in New York?
Today, Andy McCullough makes his grand return from paternal leave to answer your questions in our MLB mailbag. Here’s one about the Yankees:
The Yankees have played pretty well while Aaron Judge is on the injured list. What personnel changes will they make when he returns? — James P.
I’m not sure I’m as optimistic about the current Yankees product as you are, James. The team suffered a four-game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox last weekend. The starting pitching has taken its lumps. And the offense, of course, misses Judge, who likely won’t be back until August, at the earliest. Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice have cooled off. Jazz Chisholm Jr. still hasn’t heated up.
A lot can happen between now and whenever Judge returns. Specifically, a lot of other injuries can happen. But Jasson Domínguez has not hit well since replacing Judge in right field. If he does not catch fire, the team could just option him back to the minors.
Read our full mailbag for more on the Mets, Rockies, Ronald Acuña Jr. and World Cup fans in MLB ballparks.
Contreras Drama, Cont’d: Benches clear in Boston
Willson Contreras was ejected for the second straight game in last night’s 8-1 loss to the Nats.
But let’s back up. On Monday, first-base umpire Nic Lentz tossed Contreras for simply tapping his helmet as he walked back to the dugout after a strikeout. It was the wrong call, and, quite frankly, an embarrassing one for Lentz.
Then Contreras was ejected again last night. Except this one was more deserved.
Yesterday, in the bottom of the fourth inning, Nationals pitcher Cade Cavalli struck Contreras out looking and then shouted, “Sit down, boy!”
Contreras initially looked confused as he started walking toward the mound, asking, “Are you talking to me?”
I’m not sure what Cavalli said after that, but it set Contreras off. He tried to bull-rush Cavalli, throwing his helmet in the direction of the pitcher (he missed by quite a lot).
The beef between Cavalli and Contreras could’ve been started by Contreras in the first inning, as suggested by Cavalli’s postgame comments and a helpful camera angle.
As bench-clearing incidents go, it was more than the minimum push-and-shove. But aside from the helmet and a few players thrown to the ground, it didn’t escalate any further.
In addition to Contreras, interim manager Chad Tracy was also ejected (for the first time in his career) after a long conversation with umpires, seemingly upset that Cavalli wasn’t punished for instigating. Red Sox outfielder Nate Eaton and Nats pitcher Miles Mikolas were also ejected.
Making matters worse for the last-place Red Sox: Starter Connelly Early left the game with “elbow discomfort,” which is not a phrase you ever want to hear about your starting pitcher.
More context for beef: Jomboy’s breakdown of the Austin Hedges-Josh Naylor beef shows that Naylor started the conversation, making Hedges’ response a bit more understandable.
Hear Me Out: Chris Paddack, gun for hire?
Before Monday’s game in Cleveland, the Rangers announced their signing of Chris Paddack to a big-league deal. That night, he followed opener Tyler Alexander and pitched a respectable four innings, allowing two runs on seven hits, one strikeout and no walks.
Yesterday, the Rangers announced they designated Paddack for assignment.
Isn’t that an expensive move though? A guaranteed league-minimum salary for four innings?
Not exactly: MLB contracts are guaranteed, but Paddack started this season with a $4 million salary from the Marlins. He was DFA’d and subsequently released in early May, meaning any team who signs him pays a prorated percentage of the league minimum, for however long he stays on the roster. That amount is then subtracted from the Marlins’ bill.
So when the Reds signed him on May 13, then DFA’d and released him last week, they paid about a month’s worth of the league minimum for six games from Paddack. For the Rangers, the one-day stint cost — I believe — 1/187th of the league minimum of $780,000, or roughly $4,171.
Listen, I am anti-collusion. I need to say that, because what I’m about to propose sounds a lot like collusion.
But it would be funny (for me, if not particularly for Paddack and his family) if teams would continue to take advantage of this situation, signing Paddack on days when they need a spot starter, paying $4,171 for the service, then cutting him loose to be available for the next team in need of a one-day breather for their staff. Cubs?
Paddack is already more than halfway to the record for most teams played for in one season (Five teams, done by three players: Oliver Drake in 2018, Mike Baumann in 2024 and Jose Ureña last year).
Jokes aside: The fact that two of those three record-holders came in the last two seasons is no coincidence. As Britt Ghiroli writes in an expansive bit of analysis here, we’re seeing the effects of MLB shuttering 40 minor-league teams a few years ago.
More Rangers (kinda): In last night’s 4-2 win, Texas took the lead when Guardians left fielder Cooper Ingle, playing in his fourth big-league game, threw the ball into the stands after catching a fly ball that he mistook as the third out. It was, in fact, not the third out.
Handshakes and High Fives
From buyers to sellers, and the “hinge” teams in between, here are our Trade Deadline Tiers 1.0.
Ken Rosenthal caught up with John Mozeliak for a Q&A about how he sees the Angels job, and what he plans to do with a franchise that hasn’t had a winning season since 2015.
Keith Law has his top 100 draft rankings today, with Roch Cholowsky still in the top spot. Dan Hayes spoke to No. 4 on that list: infielder Grady Emerson.
Early in this season, Tatsuya Imai’s difficulties adjusting to life in the states were well-documented. Chandler Rome tells us how the Japanese pitcher has turned that narrative — and his season — around in Houston.
Tarik Skubal versus the Yankees went a bit differently in Round 2: Skubal made things look easy, outdueling Cam Schlittler in a 9-3 win that extended the Yanks’ losing streak to six games.
Rays third baseman Junior Caminero (who has home runs in five straight games) was announced as the first confirmed participant in this year’s new-look Home Run Derby. Caminero was runner-up to Cal Raleigh in last year’s contest.
Here are your month-of-June leaders in a few categories:
- Home Runs: 13, Hunter Goodman (COL)
- Hits: 39, Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC)
- Stolen Bases: 11, Bobby Witt Jr. (KCR)
- Strikeouts: 45, Jacob deGrom (TEX)
- Saves: 12, Jacob Latz (TEX)
- Team Record: Miami Marlins, 20-6
Milestones: Bryan Woo set a Mariners record with 32 straight scoreless innings at T-Mobile Park, while Dodgers manager Dave Roberts became the fastest manager to 1,000 wins, doing it in game No. 1,606.
Streak watch: Royals catcher Carter Jensen’s hit streak is 20 games, with a home run last night; 14 to go to hit Benito Santiago’s all-time rookie hit streak record (set in 1987).
Most-clicked in our last Windup: Jen McCaffrey’s story about Contreras’ previous ejection.
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