Worst Day For Momentum Since "Vax Day" 2020
PremiumWorst Day For Momentum Since "Vax Day" 2020
Earlier today, we showed that it's shaping up as one of the worst days for momentum stocks in a long time, with the Goldman High Beta Momo basket suffering a more than 10% drop,
275,000 US Jobs Added February—Interest Rates Be Darned
America’s employers delivered another healthy month of hiring in February, adding a surprising 275,000 jobs and again showcasing the U.S. economy’s resilience in the face of high interest rates.
Last month’s job growth marked an increase from a revised gain of 229,000 jobs in January. At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked up two-tenths of a point in February to 3.9%. Though that was the highest rate in two years, it is still low by historic standards. And it marked the 25th straight month in which joblessness has remained below 4% — the longest such streak since the 1960s.
Yet despite sharply lower inflation, a healthy job market and a record-high stock market, many Americans say they are unhappy with the state of the economy — a sentiment that is sure to weigh on President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election. Many voters blame Biden for the surge in consumer prices that began in 2021. Though inflationary pressures have significantly eased, average prices remain about 17% above where they stood three years ago.
Friday's report drastically revised down the government's estimate of hiring in December and January from what had been blockbuster increases to still-solid gains. The report also gave the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve what could be a dose of encouraging news: Average hourly wages rose just 0.1% from January, the smallest monthly gain in more than two years, and 4.3% from a year earlier, less than expected. Average pay growth has been exceeding inflation for more than year, but when it rises too fast it can feed inflation.
The latest figures reflected the job market’s sustained ability to withstand the 11 rate hikes the Fed imposed in its drive against inflation, which made borrowing much costlier for households and businesses. Employers have continued to hire briskly to meet steady demand from consumers across the economy.
The February figures will likely make Fed officials more comfortable about cutting rates sometime in the coming months. With December and January job gains revised sharply down, wage growth easing and the unemployment rate up, the Fed's policymakers aren't likely to worry about an overheating economy. Most economists and Wall Street traders expect the first rate cut to come in June. The Fed stopped raising rates in July and has signaled that it envisions three rate cuts this year.
The unemployment rate rose last month in part because more people began looking for a job and didn’t immediately find one. The Fed will be reassured by the influx of job seekers, which typically makes it easier for businesses to fill jobs without having to significantly raise pay.
Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services, said he was impressed by the breadth of hiring last month: Among industries, health care companies added 67,000 jobs, government at all levels 52,000, restaurants and bars 42,000, construction companies 23,000 and retailers 19,000.
By contrast, factories cut 4,000 jobs. And financial companies, including banks, insurers and real estate firms, added just 1,000.
When the Fed began aggressively raising rates in March 2022 to fight the worst bout of inflation in four decades, a painful recession was widely predicted, with waves of layoffs and high unemployment. The Fed boosted its benchmark rate to the highest level in more than two decades.
Inflation has eased, more or less steadily, in response: Consumer prices in January were up just 3.1% from a year earlier — way down from a year-over-year peak of 9.1% in 2022 and edging closer to the Fed’s 2% target. Unemployment is still low. And no recession is in sight.
The combination of easing inflation and sturdy hiring is raising hopes that the Fed can achieve a so-called “soft landing” by taming inflation without causing a recession — a scenario consistent with Friday's numbers.
Faucher said he expects average monthly job growth to decelerate to around 150,000 and for the unemployment rate to rise to slightly above 4% by year's end. A cooling labor market, he suggested, will allow the Fed to start cutting rates this spring.
Many Americans are exhibiting confidence in the economy through their actions: Consumers, whose average wages have outpaced inflation over the past year and who socked away money during the pandemic, have continued to spend and drive economic growth. The economy’s gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — grew by a solid 2.5% last year, up from 1.9% in 2022. And employers keep hiring.
In the meantime, the job market’s modest slowdown is happening so far in perhaps the least painful way: Companies are posting slightly fewer job openings rather than laying people off. The number of Americans filing for weekly unemployment benefits — a rough proxy for the number of layoffs — has remained low, suggesting that most workers enjoy solid job security.
Wage growth still remains slightly high from the Fed’s perspective. Some economists argue, though, that pay increases don’t need to drop so much: A surge in productivity that started last year — as companies invested in machines and used their workers more efficiently — means that employers can pay more and still reap profits without raising prices.
Share:More In Business Load MoreTen Wrexham Players Who Could Leave This Summer—Two Triple-Promotion Winners at Risk
Ten Wrexham Players Who Could Leave This Summer—Two Triple-Promotion Winners at Risk
The Red Dragons have already said goodbye to two club greats during the summer transfer window.Rich Fay|
Wrexham will have to say goodbye to several more players before they can think about making new signings this summer.
The Red Dragons have already announced that club legend Paul Mullin has left by mutual consent, while triple-promotion winner Tom O’Connor has departed to join Peterborough United.
It is an unfortunate byproduct of Wrexham’s remarkable rise that the club has outgrown many of the players who helped carry it from the National League to the Championship. Their rapid success has inevitably left some of those heroes behind.
Even after the departures of Mullin and O’Connor, Wrexham still have 31 senior players under contract. With only a 25-man squad permitted for the EFL season, several more exits will be required before Phil Parkinson can seriously consider adding new faces.
Here are ten players that could be heading for the exit door.
Arthur Okonkwo
Wrexham are in the market for a goalkeeper this summer, making it almost certain that one of their current options will have to leave.
Okonkwo appears to have a brighter long-term future than Danny Ward and Callum Burton, but with just one year remaining on his contract, it would make sense for Wrexham to cash in on the 24-year-old if he is not going to be the first-choice goalkeeper.
At this stage of his career, Okonkwo wants regular first-team soccer and may be reluctant to sign a new deal without assurances over his role. Having recently earned his first senior cap for Nigeria, he knows consistent playing time will be essential if he is to establish himself with the Super Eagles.
Conor Coady
Coady only joined Wrexham a year ago but appears destined to leave this summer.
The 33-year-old was comfortably the easiest of the club’s 13 summer signings to complete last year, with all parties eager to finalize the deal. There was understandable excitement around adding a player of his caliber and experience.
However, he was dropped after a difficult start to the season in which the Red Dragons conceded ten goals in their opening five league matches. Coady lost his place following Dom Hyam’s deadline-day arrival from Blackburn Rovers and went on to make just six appearances before joining Charlton Athletic on loan in January.
Dan Scarr
Scarr remains one of Parkinson’s most trusted leaders, but he could be allowed to leave this summer in search of regular playing time.
Even though he was recalled for the final five matches of the Championship, he only made 24 appearances last season, with only three of those appearances coming in defeats. Scarr is extremely talented and arguably underrated, but it still feels like his future lies elsewhere.
The 31-year-old has attracted interest from several Championship and League One clubs, and his departure could pave the way for another center back as Wrexham look to strengthen competition in the squad.
Sebastian Revan
It is remarkable that Revan is still only 22, yet he is already viewed as surplus to requirements in North Wales.
He joined League One side Burton Albion on loan last summer and established himself as a regular starter before a hamstring injury sidelined him for much of the holiday period.
Revan returned earlier this year but suffered another setback that required surgery in March, ruling him out for the remainder of the season. Another loan move, with regular playing time, appears to be the best option for his development.
Ryan Barnett
Barnett is another triple-promotion winner who is expected to leave this summer.
The 26-year-old has been a key figure throughout Wrexham’s rise from the National League but made only 18 appearances in all competitions last season.
With the Red Dragons looking to strengthen at wingback, a permanent move appears to be the best solution for all parties. Barnett can leave with his head held high, having established himself as an experienced EFL player who should have no shortage of interest.
Harry Ashfield
Ashfield presents something of a dilemma for Wrexham this summer.
As one of only three Under-21 players in the first-team squad, he would not need to be registered for next season and would effectively provide an extra squad option. However, with only nine senior appearances to his name, another loan spell appears to make the most sense.
The Welsh youth international impressed during his loan at League Two side Cheltenham Town, scoring two goals and providing one assist in 17 appearances. He has attracted interest from League One clubs Peterborough United and Barnsley this summer.
Wrexham’s preference is another loan move, although permanent offers are also expected.
Elliot Lee
The emotional farewells could continue with Lee’s departure this summer.
The 31-year-old has entered the final year of his contract, making either a mutual termination or another loan move until his deal expires a realistic possibility.
The triple-promotion winner was an unused substitute during the first four Championship matches of the season and made three League Cup appearances before an injury effectively ended his hopes of regular involvement. He later joined League One side Doncaster Rovers on loan, contributing three goals and two assists in 18 appearances.
Davis Keillor-Dunn
Keillor-Dunn only returned to Wrexham during the winter transfer window but could be on the move again this summer.
Parkinson would like to assess the 28-year-old during preseason, but there is an acceptance that he is unlikely to play a regular role next season.
He was primarily signed as cover to facilitate other departures earlier in the year, and with Sheffield Wednesday and Leicester City both showing interest, Wrexham could part ways with a player who made only six substitute league appearances after returning to the Racecourse Ground.
Ryan Hardie
Hardie joined Wrexham from Plymouth Argyle following promotion to the Championship but slipped down the pecking order after a disappointing start.
He scored just once in ten appearances before joining League One side Huddersfield Town on loan during the winter transfer window.
Hardie scored twice in six appearances before suffering a serious injury that prematurely ended his season. With two years remaining on his contract and Wrexham planning to sign another striker, another loan move appears to be the most logical outcome.
Mo Faal
Faal has made just 16 senior appearances for the Red Dragons since becoming the club’s then-record signing two years ago.
He spent the first half of last season on loan at League One side Port Vale before dropping into League Two with Cheltenham Town.
Now entering the final year of his contract, Faal appears unlikely to play another competitive match for Wrexham. A permanent transfer is the preferred outcome, although another loan until his contract expires also remains a possibility.
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Published 41 minutes ago | Modified 41 minutes ago
RICH FAYRich Fay is a Sports Illustrated freelance writer covering Wrexham AFC. He was born in Wrexham and raised in North Wales, but spent nine years covering Manchester United and Manchester City for the Manchester Evening News and National World. Rich is also the co-host of the RobRyanRed Wrexham podcast and featured in the Welcome to Wrexham docuseries. When he is not at matches, he is a keen hiker as well as a cook, and thinks he would do surprisingly well on the Great British Bake Off.
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