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Cup 2026

World Cup review and predictions: What surprised us in round two and what we’re expecting next

Will Kevin De Bruyne's Belgium be one of the biggest teams to exit in the group stage? Matt McNulty - FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images

That’s 48 games down, 56 more to go.

At the end of the second of the three sets of group matches, seven teams have made it into the knockouts — Argentina, Colombia, France, Germany, Mexico, Norway and the United States — and five have been eliminated: Haiti, Jordan, Panama, Tunisia and Turkey.

Lionel Messi of Argentina looks, improbably, as good as ever at 39 (it’s his birthday today) and leads a star-studded Golden Boot race with five goals, ahead of Kylian Mbappe (France) and Erling Haaland (Norway), who are both on four.

If you want to understand which teams are going through, how the bracket is shaping up and what the results of round two mean for your team, then have a look at The Athletic’s bracket and projection model.

But before it begins, we asked some of our writers to tell us one thing that surprised them in round two and make one prediction for round three.

This is what they said.

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One thing that surprised us in round two

Oliver Kay: I’ve been pleasantly surprised by how open so many of the games have remained. There have been so many goals, and while some people might put it down to the number of smaller nations due to the 48-team format, the reality is that we have seen high-scoring matches across the board. There’s a real lack of jeopardy, but so far the group stage has been a lot of fun.

Jacob Whitehead: I did not think South Korea would be as bad as they were against Mexico, having begun the tournament with an excellent display against the Czech Republic. They may recover to make the knockout stages, but relative to expectations, it was possibly the poorest performance of the World Cup so far.

Phil Hay: The quality of fringe, or less sexy, goalkeepers (when I say sexy, I mean fashionable). Eloy ‘Boom, shake the’ Room was record-breaking for Curacao against Ecuador, Iran’s Alireza Beiranvand pulled off the save of the tournament against Belgium, Vozinha is part of a Cape Verde squad who look like a proper football team.

Carl Anka: Senegal’s defensive capitulation against Norway. Few things are more frustrating than watching a national team who stick by their old guard instead of trusting the new blood on the bench, and Pape Thiaw’s decision to pick Kalidou Koulibaly has backfired badly. Senegal need a four-goal victory over Iraq to have a chance of sneaking out of their group as one of the best third-place sides. A disappointing end for one of Africa’s best sides.

Lukas Weese: Curacao. Losing 7-1 to Germany is a tough start to the World Cup. Not many people gave them a chance against Ecuador, a team who needed a result after losing to Ivory Coast. But Curacao rallied to put on a tremendous defensive performance in a 0-0 draw, earning the country its first ever point at a World Cup.

Tomas Hill Lopez-Menchero: Sweden being thrashed against Netherlands by the same 5-1 scoreline they produced against Tunisia in matchday one. I knew Graham Potter’s side weren’t as accomplished as their first opponents had made them seem, but the Dutch proved they cannot get by on just their star-studded attack.

Felipe Cardenas: Uruguay’s chaotic start. And it’s not that I didn’t expect Marcelo Bielsa’s side to be a cardiac-inducing problem for its fans. It’s that the results are not going Uruguay’s way, which is typically the case at a major tournament. Uruguay are on the brink of elimination after draws against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. No one saw that coming.

Austin Green: I’ll go the flip-side of Felipe and say Cape Verde’s draw against Uruguay. It’s not only that they somehow got a result against another past World Cup champion, it’s that they did so in a dramatically different way than against Spain on matchday one. Vozinha, as great as he was in that opener, was hardly the hero on Sunday, and instead was picked up by a bold, daring attack ready to pounce on Uruguay’s mistakes.

One prediction for round three

Kay: I’m fascinated to see what happens between Algeria and Austria in Group J. A draw would pretty much guarantee a place in the knockout stage for both, but, as Colin Millar explained here, it might prove more advantageous to finish third than to come second and play the winners of Group H (likely to be Spain). An infamous carve-up between Austria and West Germany, known as “The Disgrace of Gijon”, knocked poor Algeria out of the World Cup in 1982. Saturday in Kansas City promises intrigue galore.

Whitehead: Belgium will be the big-name team to exit the tournament after failing to beat New Zealand — finally forcing the country to move on from its Golden Generation. A sad ending to one of the teams that animated the 2010s.

Hay: My tip for round three of group-stage matches: the heroes in Capes progress to the last 32.

Anka: What if Cape Verde were the dark horses for the World Cup all along? If they beat Saudi Arabia and finish second in Group H, it’ll send huge ripples across the knockout brackets. They’re brave on both sides of the ball and have the wind in their sails. Let’s get it.

Can Scotland knock Brazil (above) out of their stride? (Dylan Martinez/Reuters)

Weese: All three World Cup co-hosts win their group. Yes, that means I think Canada will draw Switzerland in Vancouver. A host hasn’t won their group since Brazil in 2014. The United States, Canada and Mexico are trying to follow in the footsteps of Japan and South Korea in 2002 as co-hosts to win their respective groups.

Hill Lopez-Menchero: Scotland to cause an upset by drawing with or beating Brazil. ‘Vinicius Junior vs Nathan Patterson?’, I hear you ask — but I still think there’s a way they can frustrate Carlo Ancelotti’s galacticos.

Cardenas: England makes its case as a bona-fide Cup contender. We see the talent on this England side. We know Thomas Tuchel has a tournament-winning pedigree. Forget the goals England conceded versus Croatia. Start the hype train.

Green: A heavily rotated USMNT side still defeats a dejected Turkey. Everything else has gone right for the U.S. this tournament. Why not a statement win for pride against the team many thought would be their harshest competition in Group D?

World Cup Tracker Groups and standings Bracket forecast Tournament schedule, scores and results Forecasts for all 48 teams Jun 24, 2026

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