Why Penn State's 2026 Season Is 'Seemingly Impossible' to Predict
Why Penn State's 2026 Season Is 'Seemingly Impossible' to Predict
The Nittany Lions could be one of the Big Ten's best stories or one of its average teams. Mark Wogenrich|
In this story:
Penn State Nittany LionsPenn State's 2025 football season began with so much narrative clarity. The Nittany Lions retained their starting quarterback, returned a seasoned roster filled with potential All-Americans and hired a defensive coordinator in Jim Knowles whom James Franklin called "arguably the best" in college football.
Those national-championship predictions melted beneath three straight Big Ten losses that prompted Franklin's firing and reset the entire program. Matt Campbell arrived at Penn State to undertake a massive roster rebuild, during which he brought in 55 new players, 40 of them transfers from 17 different schools.
As a result, Penn State's 2026 season is much more difficult to project. ESPN's Bill Connelly illustrated this point with his Big Ten preview that includes a muddy view of the Nittany Lions.
Connolly ranks Penn State 17th nationally and sixth in a top-heavy Big Ten that includes three of his top-five teams overall: Ohio State at No. 1, Oregon at No. 2 and Indiana at No. 5. However...
'Penn State is seemingly impossible to project, especially since the Nittany Lions will be more Iowa State than PSU this season under new coach Matt Campbell," Connelly wrote. "They could indeed be a borderline top-15 team or they could stumble out of the top 40 — neither would surprise me much."
Indeed, Penn State is an enigmatic team gathering higher expectations based more on its schedule than its roster. Statistically, Penn State brings a mid-level roster, from a recruiting rankings perspective, into one of the easiest Big Ten schedules. Connelly ranks Penn State's strength of schedule 59th nationally and conditionally as the friendliest in the Big Ten, since it does not include Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana.
According to the 247Sports Composite, Penn State's incoming 2026 class (recruits and transfers) ranks 34th nationally and eighth in the Big Ten. In the long term that's a concern, since Penn State's hastily assembled 2026 recruiting class ranked 65th nationally.
However, Penn State brought in the nation's fourth-ranked transfer class, helmed by 24 former Iowa State Cyclones, including fourth-year starting quarterback Rocco Becht. Who just happens to be the most experienced quarterback in the FBS.
Penn State's overall SP+ rating (15.6) is not far behind that of Michigan (16), which the Nittany Lions will visit in October. Connelly gives Penn State a 99.2-percent chance to win six games (highly likely) but a 13.6-percent chance to win 11+.
Because of that Big Ten schedule, against a roster of eight opponents that went a combined 72-77 last season, the Nittany Lions have the fourth-highest conference-wins average (6.2) in the Big Ten.
Penn State's biggest positives are:
- A highly galvanized offense that brought its coordinator and five potential starters from Iowa State.
- A quarterback in Becht who leads returning FBS signal-callers with 26 career wins.
- A defensive coordinator in D'Anton Lynn who understands Big Ten offenses from a West Coast perspsctive (having coached at USC the past two seasons) and built a personnel package to compete right away.
However, the Nittany Lions also have some concerns:
- A wide receivers room with five transfers (albeit two who were Iowa State's leading wideouts last season) that already is on its second coach in Kashif Moore.
- A completely overhauled defensive line with seven transfers and no lead edge rusher.
- A backup quarterback situation behind Becht that is tenuous at best, with only one player who has thrown an FBS pass. And he (Alex Manske) missed spring drills while recovering from an injury.
To be a College Football Playoff contender, Penn State must capitalize on that schedule. Connelly noted this by calling the Oct. 10 Penn State-USC game at Beaver Stadium an "elimination game of sorts."
"PSU could announce itself as a dark horse with a win here, and USC, coming off home games against Oregon and Washington, will either be trying to stay in the title race or simply stay afloat," Connelly wrote.
Campbell himself said that it's "too early too tell" whether Penn State will contend for a playoff spot.
"Are we ready? Are we capable?" Campbell said. "We had a lot of injuries, and a lot of guys didn't practice this spring, so did we gain real momentum? I think this is a team that, if it’s going to reach its full potential, it's going to have to be able to be its best.
"Sometimes being your best is being a little lucky with injuries, being groomed to be its best physically and play its best in critical moments. I think those things are still out there. Like, what kind of team are we really? I think fall camp will tell us a lot more about who we are and where we're at."
The Nittany Lions open training camp in early August and their compelling first season under Campbell against Marshall on Sept. 5 at Beaver Stadium.
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Published Jun 19, 2026
MARK WOGENRICHMark Wogenrich is the editor and publisher of Penn State on SI, the site for Nittany Lions sports on the Sports Illustrated network. He has covered Penn State sports for more than two decades across three coaching staffs, three Rose Bowls and one College Football Playoff appearance.
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Badenoch blasts 'moaning' female Labour MPs over Burnham jobs 'quota'
Kemi Badenoch has told Labour women to earn a job in Andy Burnham's Cabinet instead of demanding they are handed jobs because of their gender.
The Tory leader lashed out today amid reports that female MPs are demanding the de-facto new prime minister introduce a 50:50 gender split 'quota' in his government.
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister also complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts.
But in a scathing article in the Times today Mrs Badenoch told them to 'stop moaning' and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'.
'There are many, many reasons why you shouldn't have any Milibands in the cabinet,' she said.
'But complaining that the boys haven't given them the right jobs or that the boys are taking all the jobs, just shows that Labour's women still don't get it.'
The idea of quotas was also attacked by Baroness Jacqui Smith, Labour's Skills Minister.
Asked by Times Radio if Mr Burnham should reserve jobs for women, she said: 'No, I think what Andy Burnham should be doing is building the very best team around him to change this country.'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband (above, right, in 2010) is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts
But Mrs Badenoch told them to pipe down and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party and seen by the BBC has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs after he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer.
'We are asking you to demonstrate this change from day one and address the toxicity and misogyny within our own party and government,' it said.
Labour has never had a female leader, while the Conservatives have had three, and Mrs Badenoch urged the government to follow its meritocratic example.
'If you run a meritocracy, then you do not have to worry about jobs for the boys,' she wrote.
'Every woman who is a Conservative MP, every woman who has ever won the leadership, has had to fight to get where she is.
'By contrast, Labour women are demanding guarantees from Burnham. But the truth is he doesn't have to give any guarantees.
'If none of Labour's women are prepared to get their hands dirty and challenge him for the leadership, their demands are toothless.'
'In fact, it's quite revealing that the women's parliamentary Labour Party has written to Burnham asking him to commit himself to at least 50 per cent female ministers.
'This has nothing to do with meritocracy. It is yet more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country.'
