Why are the Orioles a (not even quite) .500 Team?
Story by
I shouldn’t mislead you: the Orioles are not hovering at .500 right now, because they’re actually sitting at 35-41 (.461), fourth in the AL East, staring up at the Yankees, Rays, and even the Blue Jays. I can’t even analytics our way out of here: their Pythagorean record, the model that predicts wins based on runs scored versus runs allowed, comes out to exactly 34-41. No BABIP mirage here.
No, this team is behaving in all ways like a mediocre team; it may, in fact, be one. But why, exactly? A few thoughts.
AdvertisementAdvertisementThe lineup is a frequent source of disappointment: case in point, Tuesday and Thursday’s one- and zero-run offensive no-shows in Seattle. But that doesn’t quite work. Astonishingly (look, I was surprised, at least), only two AL teams have scored more runs than the Orioles, New York and Minnesota. The team has seven lineup players with an OPS above .711: in descending order, Pete Alonso, Adley Rutschman, Samuel Basallo, Blaze Alexander, Taylor Ward, Gunnar Henderson and Leody Taveras.
The lineup may lack consistency on the daily, but we can agree on some good individual performances already. Kudos in particular to Adley, in the middle of arguably his best power season yet; Samuel Basallo, already looking like the prospect the system promised; and Pete Alonso, who’s started to resemble the hitter Mets fans once fell in love with. Less predictable was the sudden excellence of guys like Taylor Ward, acquired as a depth/buy-low piece; Blaze Alexander, with a .310 batting average in 63 games, way outstripping his career high with Arizona (a .247 line in 74); and seven-year veteran Leody Taveras, delivering unexpectedly stable production.
It could be noted that, while the Orioles’ approach at the plate was meant this year to turn on patience—and they are walking at an AL second-best rate—the strikeouts are still unacceptable, the fourth-highest in the game. This might still be contributing to unproductive AB’s with runners aboard.
Anyway, a Top 5 offense in the AL isn’t explaining the mediocre product we’re seeing on the daily. The deeper problem seems to lie on the other side of the ball. In terms of ERA, this is one of the worst pitching staffs in the game: only Minnesota and Houston are doing it worse in the American League, and Houston is down practically a whole stable of pitchers. The team ERA sits at 4.57, and the staff is one of the five worst at striking batters out. The bullpen, to my surprise, is not much better, with a nearly equal 4.58 mark.
AdvertisementAdvertisementBut it’s worth noting that stats do suggest a real upturn, pitching-wise, over the last few weeks and it’s not just a mirage. Since May 20, the Orioles have a 3.48 starter ERA, sixth-best in all MLB. Shane Baz is looking sharper, with a 2.05 ERA in that period. Brandon Young a 2.20 mark in that time. Kyle Bradish, for his part, 3.77, and that’s marred by a few stinkers. Trevor Rogers clocks in at 4.50, however, nothing special.
The bullpen, for its part, is not experiencing a miraculous renaissance; it’s just kind of average, 19th in ERA in that stretch.
So could this run of starting-pitching brilliance continue? Baz and Young will not likely carry a 2.00-ish mark though the season, but Bradish might sustain this path, while Trevor Rogers could continue to improve on what’s been a terrible start.
It’s fair to say, too, that the defense, much talked about, is another source of mediocrity. By Statcast measures, Baltimore’s fielding run value sits around -2 (18th in MLB), their outs above average around -10 (22nd), and their 41 errors are the 10th-most in the league, with a .984 fielding percentage that ranks 21st. While this could be more disastrous, it’s true, it helps to explain a .461 win percentage, especially when the pitching was bad for the first two months of the season. The outfield in particular has been a sore spot, with defensive runs saved there near the bottom of the league. Some of that traces to lineup construction: Dylan Beavers has been out, Tyler O’Neill disappointing, Colton Cowser ice-cold until recently. That explains Jeremiah Jackson and Blaze Alexander wearing outfielders’ gloves: it plugs one hole, but another leak springs open.
AdvertisementAdvertisementOne more angle on the O’s collective mediocrity: the league’s collective mediocrity. The AL is unusually flat outside its two or three genuine top-tier clubs. The Yankees and Rays have pulled away at the top of the East, but below them is a long, mushy middle. Toronto sits at .493, Texas is at .473, the Athletics at .486, Minnesota at .474, Houston is at .461 (the same winning percentage as Baltimore). Nine of the league’s fifteen AL teams are within a handful of percentage points of .500 in either direction. So parity is real, although it fails to explain the Orioles, specifically, are on the wrong side of that pack. Houston, for instance, has been gutted by injuries and performed just the same.
So, is there finger-pointing to do? It’s true that building a rotation that could, not just hold up over 162 games, but compete deep into the playoffs has been the organization’s Achilles’ heel for years. But this year, it felt fair to expect that Trevor Rogers, Zach Eflin, Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish would attain a greater level of competence than they have so far. The hitters’ approach could be questioned, but the run production has not been that bad. The defense, yes, maybe a casualty of too much platooning and creative substitutions.
The Orioles’ mediocrity thus far: bad luck? Bad roster construction? Bad coaching decisions? All could be true at once, I suppose. Deciding whether the team becomes deadline sellers or buyers is the first question; after that, self-examination.
Badenoch blasts 'moaning' female Labour MPs over Burnham jobs 'quota'
Kemi Badenoch has told Labour women to earn a job in Andy Burnham's Cabinet instead of demanding they are handed jobs because of their gender.
The Tory leader lashed out today amid reports that female MPs are demanding the de-facto new prime minister introduce a 50:50 gender split 'quota' in his government.
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister also complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts.
But in a scathing article in the Times today Mrs Badenoch told them to 'stop moaning' and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'.
'There are many, many reasons why you shouldn't have any Milibands in the cabinet,' she said.
'But complaining that the boys haven't given them the right jobs or that the boys are taking all the jobs, just shows that Labour's women still don't get it.'
The idea of quotas was also attacked by Baroness Jacqui Smith, Labour's Skills Minister.
Asked by Times Radio if Mr Burnham should reserve jobs for women, she said: 'No, I think what Andy Burnham should be doing is building the very best team around him to change this country.'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband (above, right, in 2010) is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts
But Mrs Badenoch told them to pipe down and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party and seen by the BBC has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs after he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer.
'We are asking you to demonstrate this change from day one and address the toxicity and misogyny within our own party and government,' it said.
Labour has never had a female leader, while the Conservatives have had three, and Mrs Badenoch urged the government to follow its meritocratic example.
'If you run a meritocracy, then you do not have to worry about jobs for the boys,' she wrote.
'Every woman who is a Conservative MP, every woman who has ever won the leadership, has had to fight to get where she is.
'By contrast, Labour women are demanding guarantees from Burnham. But the truth is he doesn't have to give any guarantees.
'If none of Labour's women are prepared to get their hands dirty and challenge him for the leadership, their demands are toothless.'
'In fact, it's quite revealing that the women's parliamentary Labour Party has written to Burnham asking him to commit himself to at least 50 per cent female ministers.
'This has nothing to do with meritocracy. It is yet more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country.'
Venezuela Fury and Noah Price subsidising their life by livestreaming
Venezuela Fury and her husband Noah Price look to be making their own way in the world by raking it in from their lucrative social media accounts.
The influencer daughter of Tyson and Paris Fury, 16, has become an internet sensation after tying the knot with her husband Noah, 19, earlier this year.
Since getting married and moving in together the couple have been earning thousands of pounds a month, livestreaming their life as newlyweds in their static caravan in the East Riding of Yorkshire.
And fans can't get enough of their regular life updates on TikTok and Kick, which have proved to be very profitable for the pair.
They look to be supporting themselves after Noah denied that he was given £5million by Venezuela's family as a wedding gift.
Despite his wife's huge family wealth, an estimated combined £160 million, Noah recently told his Kick followers that he 'pays for everything' for the couple.
Making light of the claims about Venezuela's millionaire financial status, Noah said: 'I actually pay for everything unfortunately. You'd expect the millionaire to pay for it wouldn't you.'
Venezuela Fury and Noah Price are earning thousands livestreaming their caravan life - after her new groom insisted he pays all the bills and denied he had £5m handout from her dad
The influencer daughter of Tyson and Paris Fury , 16, has become an internet sensation after tying the knot with her husband Noah, 19, earlier this year
Venezuela then asked their fans: 'Do you think I am a millionaire?'
Noah joked: 'She isn't a secret millionaire guys', before she broke into song and sang: 'But I live like a millionaire!'
But it seems according to estimated calculations from their social media work, Noah and Venezuela can more than afford to support themselves.
Noah has been livestreaming on platforms such as Kick and TikTok, where viewers can send paid gifts or donations.
He was previously encouraging viewers to send gifts on his honeymoon during livestreams, suggesting this is one revenue stream.
Both Noah and Venezuela have built substantial followings on Instagram and TikTok. They can potentially earn money through sponsored posts, brand collaborations, affiliate links and creator payouts.
Kick allows its creators to take home 95 per cent of the £4.99 subscription cost that fans pay.
Streamers keep 100 per cent of direct tips and donations, minus minor standard payment processing fees.
It is unclear how many subscribers Noah currently has because this information is hidden, but he does have 7,200 followers which is publicly viewable.
An industry insider has suggested Noah is making around £400 per video on TikTok, while Venezuela is likely to make £2,000 due to her following count of 1.3 million.
An industry insider has suggested Noah is making around £400 per video on TikTok, while Venezuela is likely to make £2,000 due to her following count of 1.3 million
In one video on their honeymoon, Noah asked his followers if they'd give them some more gifts now that they were married.
In a TikTok live viewed by 20,000 he said: 'Keep liking our videos people, keep sending gifts.'
After saying thank you to several of his followers he joked they should stick around on the livestream and 'watch Venezuela punch me in the mouth'.
The other half of the honeymooning couple said: 'I am, honestly!'
Noah previously confirmed that the pair don't share their finances after they were asked whether they have a shared bank account.
'She earns her money, I earn mine,' said Noah, as Venezuela joked: 'Yeah, what you gonna do about it.'
Noah went on to debunk the rumour that Tyson gave him £5million when he tied the knot with his daughter as he insisted: 'No Tyson did not give me £5million'.
Meanwhile Venezuela is being eyed up by executives for a fly on the wall TV series.
Noah went on to debunk the rumour that Tyson gave him £5million when he tied the knot with his daughter as he insisted: 'No Tyson did not give me £5million'
Boasting 1.3 million TikTok followers, Venezuela is already entertaining fans with her honest musings and candid moments, from cooking to kitting out her and Noah's static caravan home.
And following the success of the Netflix series At Home With The Furys, it is no wonder bosses are wanting to draw on the Fury popularity.
A TV insider said: 'The couple are not A-list celebrities but everyone has become obsessed with their love story.
'People are genuinely intrigued by them. Whether it’s the fact they have married so young, Venezuela’s famous family or their gypsy lifestyle, they have the ‘X factor'.
'Several TV executives think a proper fly-on-the-wall series following their lives as newlyweds in the gypsy community would be fascinating,' they told The Sun.
It is thought Netflix would be likely to produce the series due to their already established relationship with the Furys.
Venezuela's representatives told The Daily Mail: 'We have many offers on the table regarding Venezuela which we are discussing.'
