What happens next - three ways Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham battle for No 10
What happens next - three ways Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham battle for No 10
The Greater Manchester Mayor's victory sets up what could be a bruising battle for the Labour leadership
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Add us as preferred source Comments By Martyn Brown, Political Editor 05:56, Fri, Jun 19, 2026 Updated: 06:03, Fri, Jun 19, 2026 
Andy Burnham - ‘The King of the North’ - is finally heading to Westminster for his showdown with Keir Starmer. His dramatic by-election victory in the early hours paves the way for a clash of the Labour heavyweights.
While it might not quite be the Rumble in the Jungle or the Thriller in Manila, this ding dong for Downing Street is sure to pack a punch. Both men have been shadow boxing around each other for what seems like months now and Burnham’s convincing win over Reform UK in Makerfield means the gloves are likely to come off when he properly enters the ring in the coming days.
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- Makerfield by-election LIVE: Andy Burnham wins in huge blow to Keir Starmer and Reform
- Andy Burnham victory speech hijacked in Makerfield by-election chaos
Sir Keir has vowed to fight to remain as Labour leader and Prime Minister and is understood to have assembled a support team to do just that. We will find out very soon whether he can withstand the inevitable onslaught that is coming his way.
There are many schools of thought as to how this could play out.
A lightning strike by Burnham, carrying on the momentum he has from Makerfield.
That would involve Sir Keir quitting, perhaps with the help of his Cabinet turning against him, in the coming days if he sees the writing is on the wall.
A second scenario could emerge with the Prime Minister and his newest MP set to hold face-to-face talks in which they could thrash out some kind of “deal”.
In the coming weeks there are NATO and EU summits on July 7 and 22 and there’s the Greater Manchester Mayoralty election, to replace Burnham, on July 30.
Sir Keir has already suggested that he wants his rival to “play a big part” in that - in other words, back off until after then.
That could mean there is a somewhat orderly transition between the two between now and the Labour Party conference.
A third, and potentially most damaging, option is a full-blown leadership contest involving Starmer, Burnham, Wes Streeting, Al Carns and anyone else who fancies chucking their hat into the ring.
That has the potential to tear the Labour party apart, infuriating the public further.
So where does Makerfield leave Nigel Farage’s Reform UK?
Make no mistake about it, Robert Kenyon’s defeat was a bitter blow for the party which had thrown the kitchen sink at trying to win it.
It wasn’t even that close in the end, with the vote share of Restore Britain ultimately not proving to be decisive.
It was always going to be difficult for Reform, taking on the Burnham machine in an area he grew up in.
But the constituency was a Brexit supporting gift for them and despite the rhetoric, they simply didn’t get the numbers out.
Talk of Reform having already reached its peak is premature - last month’s local elections serve as a reminder of how influential they are in British politics - but party strategists will need to regroup after this.
It is the second high-profile Manchester by-election they’ve been unable to win, after Zack Polanski’s Green Party won in Gorton and Denton.
They need to figure out the formula to succeed as there is likely to be several more by-elections between now and the next general election which is scheduled for 2029.
Perhaps the most stunning of last night’s three by-elections came with the Conservatives winning Aberdeen South in a major boost for Kemi Badenoch.
The Tories convincingly defeated the SNP, heavily targeting the seat in recent weeks in a masterclass of how to win.
Badenoch blasts 'moaning' female Labour MPs over Burnham jobs 'quota'
Kemi Badenoch has told Labour women to earn a job in Andy Burnham's Cabinet instead of demanding they are handed jobs because of their gender.
The Tory leader lashed out today amid reports that female MPs are demanding the de-facto new prime minister introduce a 50:50 gender split 'quota' in his government.
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister also complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts.
But in a scathing article in the Times today Mrs Badenoch told them to 'stop moaning' and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'.
'There are many, many reasons why you shouldn't have any Milibands in the cabinet,' she said.
'But complaining that the boys haven't given them the right jobs or that the boys are taking all the jobs, just shows that Labour's women still don't get it.'
The idea of quotas was also attacked by Baroness Jacqui Smith, Labour's Skills Minister.
Asked by Times Radio if Mr Burnham should reserve jobs for women, she said: 'No, I think what Andy Burnham should be doing is building the very best team around him to change this country.'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband (above, right, in 2010) is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts
But Mrs Badenoch told them to pipe down and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party and seen by the BBC has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs after he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer.
'We are asking you to demonstrate this change from day one and address the toxicity and misogyny within our own party and government,' it said.
Labour has never had a female leader, while the Conservatives have had three, and Mrs Badenoch urged the government to follow its meritocratic example.
'If you run a meritocracy, then you do not have to worry about jobs for the boys,' she wrote.
'Every woman who is a Conservative MP, every woman who has ever won the leadership, has had to fight to get where she is.
'By contrast, Labour women are demanding guarantees from Burnham. But the truth is he doesn't have to give any guarantees.
'If none of Labour's women are prepared to get their hands dirty and challenge him for the leadership, their demands are toothless.'
'In fact, it's quite revealing that the women's parliamentary Labour Party has written to Burnham asking him to commit himself to at least 50 per cent female ministers.
'This has nothing to do with meritocracy. It is yet more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country.'
