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Jun 24, 2026

Very little separates Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe in World Cup Golden Boot odds

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Very little separates Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe in World Cup Golden Boot odds

A soccer player reaches out his right arm while looking over his right shoulder.

Lionel Messi is the leading scorer at the 2026 World Cup and is favored to win the Golden Boot. Charlotte Wilson / Getty Images

By Dan SantaromitaJune 24, 2026 5:00 am EDT Updated

The 2026 World Cup has been all about stars so far. The biggest names in the sport have delivered in a big way, and a few of them on multiple occasions already.

Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé played on the same day twice in the group stage. On both days, all three players scored multiple goals. Mbappé got two goals in France’s opener, followed by two goals from Haaland for Norway and then topped by a Messi hat trick against Algeria. On Monday, all three players did it again, scoring twice.

That leaves Messi as the top scorer in the World Cup so far with five goals. Mbappé and Haaland are right behind with four. Throw in Harry Kane, who had two goals in England’s opening match but was held scoreless against Ghana on Tuesday, and Cristiano Ronaldo, who struggled in Portugal’s opener but scored twice against Uzbekistan on Tuesday, and the Golden Boot race is shaping up to be generational.

For context, five goals is the same tally that won the Golden Boot in 2010 and 2006. The last time a Golden Boot winner scored 10 was in 1970 (Germany’s Gerd Müller). Messi already has five, and someone reaching 10 doesn’t seem that unthinkable given the numbers the top players have put up so far.

As for the betting odds, they favor Messi, barely. Messi is the favorite on FanDuel (+180) and DraftKings (+185), while BetMGM has Messi and Mbappé as co-favorites at +175. Mbappé is +220 on DK and FD.

Messi has a one-goal edge on Mbappé, which obviously carries value, but his Argentina team also plays Jordan on Saturday. La Albiceleste will be overwhelming favorites in that match, but have already clinched first place in the group. Would it be wise to play Messi, who turns 39 on Wednesday? On the other hand, can you convince him to sit?

Meanwhile, Mbappé and Haaland meet on the field on Friday. France and Norway, who have two wins each, have been impressive, which means goals could be harder to come by for both teams. France-Norway is one of the most enticing matches of the group stage, especially now that both Mbappé and Haaland are in the thick of the Golden Boot race.

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