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Jun 26, 2026

UFC Azerbaijan, PFL San Diego Prime Picks: Why A.J. McKee could be the weekend's best MMA bet

UFC Azerbaijan, PFL San Diego Prime Picks: Why A.J. McKee could be the weekend's best MMA bet

Jay Pettry Jun 26, 2026 We at Sherdog remain constantly active for major events, such as the regular in-depth “Shillan & Duffy” preview show and the “Sheehan Show” for all sorts of related matters including betting. With those official sources for picks handled, we would like to take the edge off here and get a bit lighter with our breakdowns.

The industry of sports betting is exploding before our very eyes, with billions of dollars pumping in since legalization stateside. Oftentimes, those driving the lines are right on the money with their openings, valuations and analyses. Occasionally, they are way off, or otherwise merit some additional conversation. That is where we come in with this reinvigorated series of Prime Picks, where we dive into the upcoming Ultimate Fighting Championship show in Azerbaijan and take a brief Professional Fighters League stop off on San Diego. Try it out.

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One UFC trend bettors shouldn't ignore this weekend


Typically, when the UFC goes on the road, it fills the billing with local athletes to boost ticket sales and otherwise give the home city or country fans something else to cheer for on fight night. This year, it has been quite obvious the level of matchmaking granted to said local athletes against foreign adversaries, and the betting lines have matched. What will we gain from Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev at -675 should he posterize Julius Walker? Other than to pad his paycheck and scoop potential bonus money for a stoppage, what does Daniil Donchenko stand to add to his life by facing late replacement and huge underdog Theodor Berggren (+385)?

Sherdog editor Ben Duffy often analyzes fight shows and how he rates them based on what he gleans from the six-plus hour engagement. Did he learn something about the athletes? Did someone show a new arrow in their quiver, or have they actively diminished in their skills? There many be plenty to gather from individual pairings, but when they appear on paper situationally created to give those brought in advantages for this fight card, it takes away from those takeaways. While the city of Baku may be nearly 100 feet below sea level, how would we know if an unsuccessful athlete only failed due to the travel and acclimation conditions?

When the UFC made its first splash in Azerbaijan last year, it did so with three local competitors in tow, and two of those prevailed. Previous debut shows in new nations France, Denmark and Uruguay all had UFC fighters from those respective countries all prevail. The UFC may not need to have a clean sweep of homers getting their hand raised in order to come back to big site fees next year, but it certainly would help with ticket sales while the costs to attending events has skyrocketed. It almost seems like an eventuality that when the UFC takes to a new market or returns to an underserved one, it matches the event accordingly for red meat and thrilling expected results. Is that right?


Why A.J. McKee offers value against Salamat Isbulaev (+100)


It may come as a bit of a surprise that established Bellator MMA crossover talent A.J. McKee is not getting respect from the books. Currently in the midst of his athletic prime coming off of good wins over talented opposition, this PFL San Diego headliner is showing the good stuff. We wish McKee vs. the unbeaten Salamat Isbulaev was a five-round engagement, for all the extra knowledge we could have gathered from two potential championship rounds, but that does not take away from the bout itself.

Top notch featherweights headline PFL San Diego: Tune in Saturday, June 27 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN 2.

There are ample questions to be answered about the incoming featherweight from Kazakhstan. With 10 wins, all 10 inside the distance and no pro outing lasting longer than 7:16, what happens when brick not hit back? Jesus Pinedo is an excellent scalp to collect on his mantle, and unquestionably established Isbulaev as one to watch. He is not taking the easy road to top contender status, as by diving right after elite opposition he seems to want to get through foes before the increased pressure of fighting for gold. What happens when McKee does not go down after Isbulaev’s first full-throated surge of offense, or when he survives the first submission attempt. How will the Kazakh’s morale fare when he hits “The Mercenary” with everything he has and McKee does not go down?

We have seen McKee fully capable of servicing as a frontrunner but also as someone who can outlast what comes his way. Sometimes, letting a flying Adam Borics soar past with a knee is better than trying to tank it and fire back. Perhaps hitting a quick armbar on Clay Collard is thinking smarter and not fighting harder by wading directly into the fire. McKee has stood up against more battle-tested opposition, has substantially greater experience and a fully functional gas tank. All of these lean to his favor, which makes McKee at even money a good get.

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