The weak link theory that will decide who wins the World Cup
By its very nature, the World Cup is destined to be described in terms of the best. There is an argument, though, that it is determined by the least worst. Or, to put it another way, by who has the strongest weak link. Go by weak link theory and the tournament will not be decided by Lionel Messi or Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappe; each can be called his team’s finest player. But the 11th name on the teamsheet might be the most important.
Especially because, in international football, there is an ever-present risk the worst player is worse than in the elite club sides. Without a transfer market, without the option of importing anyone, then, even in the diaspora World Cup, national team managers are picking from a limited talent pool.
It feels particularly pertinent now. Each of the contenders is flawed. It would be easy to construct a (hypothetically) World Cup-winning side from sections of different sides: perhaps with France’s forwards, Spain’s midfield, Portugal’s full-backs, Brazil’s central defenders and Belgium’s goalkeeper. Take the alternative approach and some distinctly undistinguished theoretical sides could be assembled.
So the determining factor may be who camouflages their weaknesses the best or who is inconvenienced the least by relative shortcomings. It is a blueprint that has worked.
Spain won Euro 2024 as the most balanced team in the tournament, and courtesy of a goal in the final by Mikel Oyarzabal. It is nevertheless hard to claim Luis de la Fuente’s team have the most enviable assortment of strikers or centre-backs right now.
For France, perhaps billed as co-favourites before the World Cup, there are questions about a midfield that, in recent years, has lost Paul Pogba and Antoine Griezmann, while N’Golo Kante is now in his mid-thirties. They reached the 2022 final with Adrien Rabiot and Aurelien Tchouameni but it is difficult to see them controlling games in a way Spain or Portugal could.
AdvertisementAdvertisementRoberto Martinez’s team can seem short of world-class centre-backs, especially when Ruben Dias is out. The unfortunate conclusion for them, however, may be that the area where they are weakest is the one where they boast an all-time great: centre-forward, as long as Cristiano Ronaldo is there.
England have no such issues when Harry Kane is fit and firing. Historically, the middle of midfield has been an issue; it was in 2018 when they were outpassed by Croatia. Now, with Elliot Anderson and Declan Rice in tandem, the concerns may come from a defence that conceded twice to Croatia in Dallas. England have good players at the back... but World Cup-winning ones?
In South America, historic enemies could be united by a shared difficulty. Brazil and Argentina are not blessed with the best choices at full-back, which did not stop Lionel Scaloni’s side from triumphing in Qatar; that, with Messi’s form, was more a case of strong-link theory prevailing. With Angel Di Maria now in international retirement, Argentina lack the class on the wings that some of their rivals possess.
AdvertisementAdvertisementFor Brazil, there are additional questions about the centre of midfield, which were exacerbated by Casemiro’s struggles against Morocco, and whether they possess a good enough No 9. The same may be said of Germany, though Kai Havertz, while more of a false nine, got his tournament off to a two-goal start against Curacao. Bringing goalkeeper Manuel Neuer out of international retirement seemed a sign that Julian Nagelsmann was addressing one area where they could compare unfavourably to other contenders. Their neighbours in the Netherlands are blessed with defenders but, relative to previous Dutch sides, maybe not with some of their midfielders and forwards.
The history of the World Cup shows that it can be won by the group with the outstanding individual – whether Pele or Diego Maradona, Messi or Garrincha – those who just assumed that status for a short period, in Paolo Rossi or Mario Kempes.
But some of the recent triumphs have come from those who managed to ensure their imperfections did not cost them, or who could obscure issues. In 2014, Germany ended up shifting Philipp Lahm, who started the tournament in midfield, to the problem position of right-back. France won in both 1998 and 2018 with non-scoring strikers – first Stephane Guivarc’h and then Olivier Giroud, who completed the Russia World Cup without mustering a shot on target – but each was at least a foil to the more potent players who operated behind or alongside him.
AdvertisementAdvertisementThe most prosaic performer in the starting 11 of the 2010 Spain champions was probably left-back Joan Capdevila, but he was reliable enough to ensure he was never exploited. In both 2006 and 2014, the eventual champions, Italy and Germany respectively, benefited from a high median level in the team. Arguably, neither had a superstar, but neither had a weak link either. And, if a team is only as strong as its 11th man, perhaps the formula to win the World Cup is to ensure the weak link is not a weakness at all.
Badenoch blasts 'moaning' female Labour MPs over Burnham jobs 'quota'
Kemi Badenoch has told Labour women to earn a job in Andy Burnham's Cabinet instead of demanding they are handed jobs because of their gender.
The Tory leader lashed out today amid reports that female MPs are demanding the de-facto new prime minister introduce a 50:50 gender split 'quota' in his government.
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister also complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts.
But in a scathing article in the Times today Mrs Badenoch told them to 'stop moaning' and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'.
'There are many, many reasons why you shouldn't have any Milibands in the cabinet,' she said.
'But complaining that the boys haven't given them the right jobs or that the boys are taking all the jobs, just shows that Labour's women still don't get it.'
The idea of quotas was also attacked by Baroness Jacqui Smith, Labour's Skills Minister.
Asked by Times Radio if Mr Burnham should reserve jobs for women, she said: 'No, I think what Andy Burnham should be doing is building the very best team around him to change this country.'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband (above, right, in 2010) is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts
But Mrs Badenoch told them to pipe down and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party and seen by the BBC has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs after he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer.
'We are asking you to demonstrate this change from day one and address the toxicity and misogyny within our own party and government,' it said.
Labour has never had a female leader, while the Conservatives have had three, and Mrs Badenoch urged the government to follow its meritocratic example.
'If you run a meritocracy, then you do not have to worry about jobs for the boys,' she wrote.
'Every woman who is a Conservative MP, every woman who has ever won the leadership, has had to fight to get where she is.
'By contrast, Labour women are demanding guarantees from Burnham. But the truth is he doesn't have to give any guarantees.
'If none of Labour's women are prepared to get their hands dirty and challenge him for the leadership, their demands are toothless.'
'In fact, it's quite revealing that the women's parliamentary Labour Party has written to Burnham asking him to commit himself to at least 50 per cent female ministers.
'This has nothing to do with meritocracy. It is yet more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country.'
Venezuela Fury and Noah Price subsidising their life by livestreaming
Venezuela Fury and her husband Noah Price look to be making their own way in the world by raking it in from their lucrative social media accounts.
The influencer daughter of Tyson and Paris Fury, 16, has become an internet sensation after tying the knot with her husband Noah, 19, earlier this year.
Since getting married and moving in together the couple have been earning thousands of pounds a month, livestreaming their life as newlyweds in their static caravan in the East Riding of Yorkshire.
And fans can't get enough of their regular life updates on TikTok and Kick, which have proved to be very profitable for the pair.
They look to be supporting themselves after Noah denied that he was given £5million by Venezuela's family as a wedding gift.
Despite his wife's huge family wealth, an estimated combined £160 million, Noah recently told his Kick followers that he 'pays for everything' for the couple.
Making light of the claims about Venezuela's millionaire financial status, Noah said: 'I actually pay for everything unfortunately. You'd expect the millionaire to pay for it wouldn't you.'
Venezuela Fury and Noah Price are earning thousands livestreaming their caravan life - after her new groom insisted he pays all the bills and denied he had £5m handout from her dad
The influencer daughter of Tyson and Paris Fury , 16, has become an internet sensation after tying the knot with her husband Noah, 19, earlier this year
Venezuela then asked their fans: 'Do you think I am a millionaire?'
Noah joked: 'She isn't a secret millionaire guys', before she broke into song and sang: 'But I live like a millionaire!'
But it seems according to estimated calculations from their social media work, Noah and Venezuela can more than afford to support themselves.
Noah has been livestreaming on platforms such as Kick and TikTok, where viewers can send paid gifts or donations.
He was previously encouraging viewers to send gifts on his honeymoon during livestreams, suggesting this is one revenue stream.
Both Noah and Venezuela have built substantial followings on Instagram and TikTok. They can potentially earn money through sponsored posts, brand collaborations, affiliate links and creator payouts.
Kick allows its creators to take home 95 per cent of the £4.99 subscription cost that fans pay.
Streamers keep 100 per cent of direct tips and donations, minus minor standard payment processing fees.
It is unclear how many subscribers Noah currently has because this information is hidden, but he does have 7,200 followers which is publicly viewable.
An industry insider has suggested Noah is making around £400 per video on TikTok, while Venezuela is likely to make £2,000 due to her following count of 1.3 million.
An industry insider has suggested Noah is making around £400 per video on TikTok, while Venezuela is likely to make £2,000 due to her following count of 1.3 million
In one video on their honeymoon, Noah asked his followers if they'd give them some more gifts now that they were married.
In a TikTok live viewed by 20,000 he said: 'Keep liking our videos people, keep sending gifts.'
After saying thank you to several of his followers he joked they should stick around on the livestream and 'watch Venezuela punch me in the mouth'.
The other half of the honeymooning couple said: 'I am, honestly!'
Noah previously confirmed that the pair don't share their finances after they were asked whether they have a shared bank account.
'She earns her money, I earn mine,' said Noah, as Venezuela joked: 'Yeah, what you gonna do about it.'
Noah went on to debunk the rumour that Tyson gave him £5million when he tied the knot with his daughter as he insisted: 'No Tyson did not give me £5million'.
Meanwhile Venezuela is being eyed up by executives for a fly on the wall TV series.
Noah went on to debunk the rumour that Tyson gave him £5million when he tied the knot with his daughter as he insisted: 'No Tyson did not give me £5million'
Boasting 1.3 million TikTok followers, Venezuela is already entertaining fans with her honest musings and candid moments, from cooking to kitting out her and Noah's static caravan home.
And following the success of the Netflix series At Home With The Furys, it is no wonder bosses are wanting to draw on the Fury popularity.
A TV insider said: 'The couple are not A-list celebrities but everyone has become obsessed with their love story.
'People are genuinely intrigued by them. Whether it’s the fact they have married so young, Venezuela’s famous family or their gypsy lifestyle, they have the ‘X factor'.
'Several TV executives think a proper fly-on-the-wall series following their lives as newlyweds in the gypsy community would be fascinating,' they told The Sun.
It is thought Netflix would be likely to produce the series due to their already established relationship with the Furys.
Venezuela's representatives told The Daily Mail: 'We have many offers on the table regarding Venezuela which we are discussing.'
