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Red Sox, Mets front offices have a lot to prove, and that should start with trading two coveted arms

The trade deadline always has its headliners. 

Tarik Skubal will be the coveted name leading into the Aug. 3. The Tigers (37-49) are expected to be sellers, barring a significant shift in the standings. Still, even if they do make a run, Detroit should strongly consider moving the two-time Cy Young Award winner, who is expected to be one of the most sought-after players on the market and is set to become a free agent at season's end.

But after Skubal, there's a second tier of starters who could prove easier to acquire while still moving the needle for a World Series contender. Sonny Gray of the Red Sox and Freddy Peralta of the Mets fit that bill.

Gray was sensational in his last start against the Yankees on Sunday, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning before Amed Rosario broke up the bid with one out in the frame. His 7 ⅓ scoreless innings, coupled with nine strikeouts, lowered his ERA to 2.69 through 15 starts this season. 

He could certainly help a Braves club that has been riddled by injuries to its starting staff. The same goes for the Padres, who have dealt with their share of blows as well. The Cubs, too.

But will the Red Sox actually part ways with Gray? Well, there are a few factors at play.

For starters, the Red Sox (37-47) believe it is still too early to determine whether they will be true sellers at the deadline, though buying doesn't exactly feel like it's on their bingo card.

According to an industry source, the front office's internal models suggest Boston still has the club at a 50/50 chance of making the postseason despite being 10 games under .500. Boston is only 5 ½ games out of a playoff spot in the watered-down American League. But SportsLine's projection system gives the Red Sox only a 14.2% chance of making the postseason.

As things currently stand, five teams stand between Boston and the third wild-card spot, including division rivals Toronto and Baltimore.

Gray, who will turn 37 in November, also has a somewhat complicated contract situation. The righthander has a $30 million club option for 2027 that carries a $10 million buyout, adding another wrinkle to any potential deal. If the Red Sox do trade Gray, which at this point appears likely, the prudent move would be to absorb that cost. Additionally, Gray has a no-trade clause in his contract, though he has said he would be willing to discuss waiving it with the front office.

Gray has also publicly acknowledged that the Red Sox "aren't a good team right now," further fueling the notion that his days in Boston could be coming to a close only a few months after they started.

The return for Gray is unlikely to be massive. One industry source said the Red Sox should aim for a package centered around a top prospect and a big-league player. In-season deals, particularly those consummated close to the trade deadline, typically don't net the kind of blockbuster hauls seen during the offseason.

The Mets, meanwhile, have a clearer path to selling at the deadline after they continue to find ways to bottom out, sporting a 36-50 record in what is a less-forgiving National League. 

The club has dealt with injuries throughout the season, including to members of its pitching staff and its two brightest stars, Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns recently fired manager Carlos Mendoza after publicly backing him earlier in the season, when New York stumbled out of the gate. 

Peralta was one of the Mets' bright spots for much of the season, but in two of his last four starts, the right-hander yielded six and 10 earned runs, respectively, ballooning his ERA from 3.63 to 4.53.

But when asked whether that should cause some trepidation or perhaps decrease Peralta's value, one high-ranking executive scoffed at the notion, suggesting that Peralta is a proven winner on the mound, one who finished fifth in Cy Young Award voting last season as the cornerstone of a Brewers rotation that might have been rewarded with a World Series berth had it not been for the mighty Dodgers.

"The Mets should get a good return on him," the executive said. "He just turned 30 and is proven." 

The return, though, all depends on Stearns, a name across the industry that has, rightfully so, drawn some scrutiny. Rival executives look at the backing Stearns has received from owner Steve Cohen, and the amount of money Cohen has been willing to spend in pursuit of a winner, and wonder why, even with the second-highest payroll in baseball, Stearns' moves have yet to bear much on-field fruit.

"I say that slightly jokingly... He honestly has zero feel," one anonymous executive said of Stearns. "Relies solely on the model. He had a good supporting cast as with the Brewers and caught a wave. He's overmatched now." 

There's a trend here. Oftentimes, Stearns and Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow have been described as value hunters -- executives who constantly weigh the value of the return in a trade against what is best for their current club.

Yet, as things stand now, both are convincingly on the outside of the playoff picture. And a sell-off, regardless of the value attached to it, appears increasingly likely. 

"Generally speaking, it's pretty early for teams to start calling on specific names," said another league executive. "There's no reason for teams to act now when you can get more desperate teams to act closer to the deadline."

The Aug. 3 trade deadline is still more than a month away.

And when contenders begin searching for pitching, both Gray and Peralta are expected to be among the most sought-after names on the market.