Predictions, Odds, Analysis! UFC Vegas 119, X-Factor
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This weekend (Sat., June 20, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return home to Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 119. The promotion’s groundbreaking trip to the White House was a lot of fun and all, but this card will serve as a return to normalcy and Apex adequateness. Fortunately, the Flyweight main event between Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape is an absolute banger of a rematch. Though that title eliminator should probably be taking place in Japan, it’s one of the best “Fight Night”-themed main events of the year. As for the rest, well, it’s the usual mix of veteran action fighters and some talented up-and-comers.
It should be fun! Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the three main card fights leading up to the main event:
Light Heavyweight: Ion Cutelaba (+240) vs. Navajo Stirling (-330)
Best Win for Cutelaba? Khalil Rountree Jr For Stirling? Rodolfo Bellato
Current Streak: Cutelaba won his last bout, while Stirling is 4-0 in UFC
X-Factor: Cutelaba is prone to collapsing
How these two match up: This should be good fun … for however long it lasts.
Cutelaba is a wild man, though perhaps he’s finally settled down a bit at 32 years of age. “The Hulk” theoretically has the wrestling and boxing to make an impact at 205 pounds, but poor decision-making and an iffy gas tank have historically held him against the upper level of Light Heavyweight competition. Stirling, conversely, has been very consistent. He’s not been an electric finisher inside the Octagon, but he represents what the City Kickboxing fight camp does well. Tall and lanky for the division, Stirling is an accurate kickboxer who feints well and is difficult to drag to the canvas.
This is a step up in competition for Stirling, but it’s one he appears well-equipped to handle. Though Cutelaba is definitely a threat both on the feet and the canvas, Stirling is a very composed fighter. He can handle getting taken down and work back to his feet without his heart rate spiking, and he doesn’t rely on huge moments alone to win standup exchanges.
Stirling is more methodical, which feels like a strong antidote to Cutelaba’s chaos. Likely, “The Hulk” finds some wrestling success early on, but as soon as he starts breathing a little heavier and struggling to floor Stirling, he’s going to really struggle with the long range offense coming his way.
Prediction: Stirling via knockout
Featherweight: Vinicius Oliveira (-260) vs. Andre Fili (+196)
Best Win for Oliveira? Kyler Phillips For Fili? Cub Swanson
Current Streak: Both men lost their last fight
X-Factor: Oliveira is moving up in weight
How these two match up: This feels like guaranteed action.
“Lokdog” rose to prominence as a Bantamweight marauder, walking through his opponents’ offense and bullying them via raw athleticism. There’s definitely some craft to his funky kickboxing, but he’s heavily reliant on his strength and durability. The massive weight cuts proved too much, however, resulting in his relocation to Featherweight.
Fili, meanwhile, is a long-time veteran of these waters. A tricky range striker and underrated wrestler, Fili took this fight on roughly two weeks notice. Fortunately, the Las Vegas local won’t have to travel far for this unexpected booking.
The short-notice element is a bit concerning, but Fili has the tools to make Oliveira pay for his wildness here. A lot of Oliveira’s Bantamweight success was a direct result of being comically huge for the division, and that usual edge should be muted here. Against an opponent who is significantly taller and longer, Oliveira’s habit of keeping his hands by his waist may come back to bite him.
Fili is awfully good at hiding that same-side high kick, after all.
AdvertisementAdvertisementFurthermore, Fili could look to wrestle to halt Oliveira’s offense and slow him down in the same way Mario Bautista just nullified the Brazilian. Between his counter shots and wrestling, Fili has multiple paths to avoid the big swings and punish Bautista’s sloppy techniques. It’s still a dangerous fight — particularly if Fili doesn’t have the gas tank for three hard rounds — but it’s one the veteran should be able to navigate.
Prediction: Fili via decision
Featherweight: Christian Rodriguez (-162) vs. Hyder Amil (+126)
Best Win for Rodriguez? Raul Rosas Jr For Amil? William Gomis
Current Streak: Both have lost two straight
X-Factor: Rodriguez is a little undersized for Featherweight
How these two match up: 145-pound strikers collide!
“Cee-Rod” made his name by upsetting fellow prospects, denying three different top grappling up-and-comers and taking away their undefeated status. He’s a crafty striker with the composure of a veteran, but it has to be mentioned that he’s struggled more up at Featherweight. Amil, age 36, started his UFC career strong with three straight wins but has since hit a wall. Amil is an all-action striker known for his pace and knockout power, but his last fight revealed an issue with stopping his opponent’s wrestling.
As we’ve seen Rodriguez does his best work against opponents who want to take him down, and Amil really isn’t that guy. Opposite similarly sharp but bigger strikers at Featherweight, Rodriguez has struggled more to take over on the feet. On paper, Amil might fill that mold of a slightly larger and more explosive striker.
Still, I favor Rodriguez, who has both fought and beaten a better class of competition than Amil. He’s the more consistent fighter, the one likely to establish the jab and build off it over time. Amil will explode more early on and perhaps land some heavy blows, but I expect Rodriguez’s composure and grit to take over as the fight wears on.
Prediction: Rodriguez via decision
Flyweight: Andre Lima (-770) vs. Kevin Borjas (+470)
Best Win for Lima? Igor Severino For Borjas? Ronaldo Rodriguez
Current Streak: Lima is 4-0 in the UFC, while Borjas has lost two straight
X-Factor: Ir’s been over a year since Lima’s last fight.
How these two match up: I don’t understand this matchup.
Lima is really good! The 27-year-old Brazilian has been largely flawless inside the Octagon, showing off excellent Muay Thai to maintain his undefeated record. On the flip side, Borjas has been quite average outside of his one upset victory in five UFC bouts. He’s a heavy hitter, but Borjas has really struggled to open up and let his hands go in more than one fight.
Between his undefeated status and impressive skills, Lima feels like he should be knocking on the door of a ranked opponent rather than fighting down. The odds feel a little silly — Borjas is not inept — but Lima is all wrong for him, a sharper striker with the composure and defense of a much more experienced athlete. Most likely, Lima dodges the big swings and chews up Borjas at distance, convincing “El Gallo Negro” to shell up as the damage starts to pile on.
Prediction: Lima via knockout
Featherweight: Melsik Baghdasaryan (+230) vs. Murzatali Magomedov (-310)
Best Win for Baghdasaryan? Tucker Lutz For Magomedov? Brahyam Zurcher
Current Streak: Baghdasaryan lost his last bout, while Magomedov debuts at 10-0
X-Factor: Baghdasaryan hasn’t fought since his Feb. 2025 KO loss to Jean Silva
How these two match up: Somebody is taking a nap.
Baghdasaryan is a former professional kickboxer, so the 34-year-old finisher has a bit more experience than his 8-3 mixed martial arts (MMA) record would imply. A short and stocky Southpaw, Baghdasaryan explodes forward with powerful left kicks and big combinations, and thus far his takedown defense has held up fairly well.
Magomedov, 26, meanwhile, is one of the better prospects to come off Contender Series in recent memory. Not only is the former Octagon champion undefeated, but he’s stopped all of his previous opponents with an equal mix of knockouts and submissions. An obvious athlete, “The Highlight” doesn’t wait long before letting his punches fly.
There’s always a chance that experience trumps youth, and that Magomedov’s aggression is tempered by a few clean liver kicks and counter punches … I wouldn’t bet on it though! The bouts with Silva and Josh Culibao demonstrated that Baghdasaryan’s professional kickboxing experience doesn’t equate to being especially hard to hit in MMA gloves, and Magomedov’s speed should see him find the target early.
I’m guessing both Magomedov’s win streak and finish streak continue.
Prediction: Magomedov via submission
‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2026: 31-16 (1)
To checkout the latest UFC Vegas 119 fight card and rumors click here.Badenoch blasts 'moaning' female Labour MPs over Burnham jobs 'quota'
Kemi Badenoch has told Labour women to earn a job in Andy Burnham's Cabinet instead of demanding they are handed jobs because of their gender.
The Tory leader lashed out today amid reports that female MPs are demanding the de-facto new prime minister introduce a 50:50 gender split 'quota' in his government.
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister also complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts.
But in a scathing article in the Times today Mrs Badenoch told them to 'stop moaning' and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'.
'There are many, many reasons why you shouldn't have any Milibands in the cabinet,' she said.
'But complaining that the boys haven't given them the right jobs or that the boys are taking all the jobs, just shows that Labour's women still don't get it.'
The idea of quotas was also attacked by Baroness Jacqui Smith, Labour's Skills Minister.
Asked by Times Radio if Mr Burnham should reserve jobs for women, she said: 'No, I think what Andy Burnham should be doing is building the very best team around him to change this country.'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband (above, right, in 2010) is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts
But Mrs Badenoch told them to pipe down and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party and seen by the BBC has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs after he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer.
'We are asking you to demonstrate this change from day one and address the toxicity and misogyny within our own party and government,' it said.
Labour has never had a female leader, while the Conservatives have had three, and Mrs Badenoch urged the government to follow its meritocratic example.
'If you run a meritocracy, then you do not have to worry about jobs for the boys,' she wrote.
'Every woman who is a Conservative MP, every woman who has ever won the leadership, has had to fight to get where she is.
'By contrast, Labour women are demanding guarantees from Burnham. But the truth is he doesn't have to give any guarantees.
'If none of Labour's women are prepared to get their hands dirty and challenge him for the leadership, their demands are toothless.'
'In fact, it's quite revealing that the women's parliamentary Labour Party has written to Burnham asking him to commit himself to at least 50 per cent female ministers.
'This has nothing to do with meritocracy. It is yet more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country.'
