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PCA keeps hitting, but sluggish Cubs can’t muster any momentum

Pete Crow-Armstrong hit a two-run home run in the sixth inning Saturday at Wrigley Field, but the Blue Jays rallied for an 8-6 victory. Sage Zipeto / Getty images

CHICAGO — If I had told you in late March that by the third week of June, Pete Crow-Armstrong would be the major-league leader in WAR, you probably would have thought it would bode well for the Cubs’ fortunes.

MVP PCA for the first-place Cubs, right?

Well, as of June 21, Crow-Armstrong’s 4.6 fWAR led his peers in both leagues, but the 40-37 Cubs are not only not in first place, they’re not particularly close, just one of a gaggle of teams in the NL wild-card hunt.

This is a team theoretically built to win the NL Central. This is also a team that might be fortunate to get a wild-card berth.

In years past, we’ve called on owner Tom Ricketts to open the purse strings for president Jed Hoyer. And we’ve called on Hoyer to get aggressive at the trade deadline. Hoyer had the budget to add Alex Bregman this offseason, and he made a smart trade to add starting pitcher Edward Cabrera. He shuffled the bullpen and signed his young players to extensions.

But when it comes to this year’s trade deadline, which will be here before you know it, Hoyer sounds less than enthused about making a big move given the Cubs’ place in the NL Central.

“Your World Series odds are probably going to be correlated to your odds of getting a bye,” Hoyer said two weeks ago. “Getting a bye is such a big deal. It’s effectively not only winning one round but also, by getting a bye, in theory, you’re playing an opponent that should be in a lesser state. The Brewers got a bye last year, and Matt Boyd threw on three days’ rest. The bye is that important. If you want to look at it differently, I’d say a lot of the aggressiveness is based on the ability to get a bye.”

Going into Monday, the Cubs are seven games behind Milwaukee. Their odds of overtaking the Brewers and winning the division are somewhere between 0 (reality) and 23 percent (PECOTA).

The trade deadline isn’t saving this team. It has to save itself.

After a family vacation a few time zones away, I went to Wrigley Field on Saturday to see what I had missed. What I saw was indicative of what this team has been over the past two months: just a frustrating watch.

The Cubs were vying for their second winning streak in the past six weeks. It was warm and sunny, a perfect Saturday at Wrigley Field. They had defeated the Blue Jays 16-2 on Friday for their second win in a row. That elusive third consecutive win seemed imminent.

WE KNOW YOU WANT TO SEE HIM IN PHILLY.

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— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) June 20, 2026

But then, the Cubs promptly lost 8-6 to Toronto despite having a 5-0 lead going into the seventh inning. Colin Rea pitched admirably into the sixth inning, allowing just three singles, and Crow-Armstrong continued his monthlong tear by cranking a two-run homer 400 feet to right field. But in the end, the universal truth of baseball did in the Cubs: you’re only as good as your bullpen.

Earlier in the day, Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced that closer Daniel Palencia’s recent MRI showed just a mild flexor strain, which was good news. He was placed on the IL with elbow inflammation earlier in the week.

I guess one way to avoid using a closer is giving up a lead before you get to the ninth. Trent Thornton and Jacob Webb each gave up a three-run homer in the seventh and eighth innings. Caleb Thielbar was also charged with two runs.

“When you have three guys kind of have bad days, we gave up a lot of runs because of it,” Counsell said. “We just didn’t get it done in the bullpen today.”

Or as Webb, who gave up a go-ahead three-run homer and has an 8.22 ERA in June, said: “I just didn’t f—— execute today. Period. Plain and simple.”

If it’s not one bleeping thing with this club, it’s another. Despite all the hype about pitching depth, defense, leadership and a balanced lineup, the Cubs aren’t doing much of anything well right now.

Since improving 27-12 on May 8, with 20 of those wins coming on two 10-game spurts, the Cubs are a maddening 13-25. In that span, they have won two consecutive games three times and three in a row just once. Their problems have been manifold, though most of the issues can be attributed to an ungodly amount of pitching injuries and a vexing lack of success from a highly paid lineup.

Alex Bregman, who signed a $175 million free-agent contract, is equaling the offensive performance of the departed Kyle Tucker, though I wouldn’t call that a good thing. Bregman’s slow start is quickly becoming a down season.

Dansby Swanson, who has three years left on his $177 million deal, reached base three times for the second straight game Saturday, improving his slash line to a robust .183/.292/.325. He is likely the best-paid No. 9 hitter in baseball only because he can’t hit 10th.

What You Should Read Next Instead of youth movement, Cubs wait for Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman to produce The Cubs will keep running Swanson out there, hoping something clicks with his swing, knowing that their fragile pitching staff needs help.

Meanwhile, your favorite Cub’s favorite Cub, Nico Hoerner, who signed a $141 million extension at the beginning of the season, now has a wRC+ of 83 and a slash line of .235/.313/.328. When I profiled him in early May, he was hitting .302 with an .841 OPS. In the games since that story was published, those numbers are .183 and .482.

When he came up with the bases loaded, no outs and the Cubs trailing by three runs in the eighth inning Saturday, I wondered if Counsell should pinch-hit for him. He didn’t, of course, and Hoerner’s 70 mph groundball to shortstop scored one run, and his speed prevented him from getting doubled up. It was more productive than Seiya Suzuki striking out and Michael Busch flying out to left field.

At least Crow-Armstrong, who signed a $115 million extension in March, is producing. In his last 19 games, he’s put up a .450/.494/.938 slash line with 10 homers, 16 RBIs and 16 runs scored. For the season, he has an .883 OPS and a 145 wRC+. He will likely be the Cubs’ only All-Star. Even salty Sox fans have to respect his production.

But in the 19 games in which he’s been raking, the Cubs are just 9-10. They trailed the Brewers by four games at the start of that mini-run, and now they’re three more in the hole.

What You Should Read Next Can Cubs’ Moisés Ballesteros use Triple-A reset to get back to being a productive bat? The Cubs announced Friday that Ballesteros is being optioned to Triple A. "Sometimes you gotta go through some struggles to get there."

After Saturday’s game, Matt Shaw, who has played himself into a regular spot in the lineup, said he felt the Cubs were “in a really good spot.” I followed up on that to make sure I heard it correctly.

“I feel like we have a lot of momentum on the offensive side,” he said. “We’re swinging it really well, one through nine. And starting pitching has been great as well. Ben Brown with a great start (Friday) and C-Rea with a good start today. So I think we’re in a good spot to get rolling. It’s going to take, I think, maybe just one or two good series in a row. And then from then on, just keep kind of piling it together.”

Shaw had homered in the game, so I’ll give him a pass on the optimistic outlook. The Cubs were rained out Sunday, but now would be a good time for them to try and win three games in a row, let alone three series. It’s not going to be easy. Then again, the supposed easy part of the schedule has been a scuffle.

After a four-game set at the Mets, the Cubs go to Milwaukee to face their local tormentors. An optimist might imagine them sweeping the series and cutting their deficit in half. But a realist knows the best-case scenario is not getting swept in heart-wrenching fashion. The Cubs then come back to Wrigley for a series against the Padres and Cardinals, two of their challengers in the wild-card race.

It’s not early anymore. It’s late June, and though Crow-Armstrong is showing he’s worth the hype, you can’t say the same about the Cubs, who look destined for a quick exit in October, if they even make it that far.

Jun 23, 2026

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