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Day 15 RecapUSMNT Falls To Turkey Third-Place Qualifiers Bracket Players to Watch

Is a perfect World Cup group record overrated? Was Tunisia worst-ever side? Day 15 recap

Christian Pulisic of the USMNT puts his hands to his mouth

Christian Pulisic's USMNT was defeated in its final group match Fran Santiago/Getty Images

By Jacob WhiteheadJune 26, 2026 Updated 7:32 am EDT

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Already assured of top spot in its group, a much-changed USMNT lost 3-2 to Turkey after Kaan Ayhan’s last-minute winner. The U.S. faces Bosnia & Herzegovina in Santa Clara next Wednesday. Australia has progressed from group D and Paraguay is forecast to reach the knockouts too after playing out a goalless draw.

Elsewhere, Ecuador produced an upset to shock Germany 2-1, its biggest scalp at a World Cup, to reach the knockout stages as one of the best third-place teams. Questions on how that process works? We’ve got you covered.

Over in Group F, the Netherlands secured top spot by defeating a dismal Tunisia, while Japan and Sweden played out a mutually beneficial draw to send both sides through.

Meanwhile, the World Cup may stop the globe, but the transfer market does not stop spinning. The Athletic revealed on Thursday that England’s Elliot Anderson is set to become the most expensive British player in history, after Manchester City agreed a £116million ($153m) deal to sign the midfielder from Nottingham Forest. He is expected to face Panama on Saturday.

Matchday 15 results

Group E: Curacao 0-2 Ivory Coast
Group E: Ecuador 2-1 Germany
Group F: Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands
Group F: Japan 1-1 Sweden
Group D: Paraguay 0-0 Australia
Group D: Turkey 3-2 United States

Ecuador shock Germany and U.S.A. suffer defeat | World Cup Daily BriefingMegan Feringa and Amitai Winehouse

Is a perfect World Cup group record overrated?

Julian Nagelsmann was almost certainly unhappy that his Germany side lost 2-1 to Ecuador — but might it mean a better chance of winning the competition?

The same goes for Mauricio Pochettino, who made nine changes as his U.S. side lost to Ayhan’s late scramble, with his team guaranteed to finish first in Group D.

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No side has won all three group matches and gone on to win the World Cup since Brazil in 2002.

Italy in 2006? Drew with the United States. Spain in South Africa? Opening loss to Switzerland. Germany four years later? Drew with Ghana. France and Argentina in the past two editions? A dull draw with Denmark and a shock loss to Saudi Arabia respectively.

Gonzalo Plata scores Ecuador's winning goal against Germany

Ecuador’s Gonzalo Plata ended Germany’s 100 per cent record – but is that a bad thing? (Mattia Ozbot/Getty Images)

There may be a couple of reasons behind this correlation. The first is that, in some of these cases, the eventual winners had rotated its team and named a weaker XI — leading to positive repercussions down the lin, through better-rested star players and a more incentivised squad.

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On other occasions, however, a team has included all its stars on the teamsheet and still only managed a disappointing result. The obvious answer here is that a mini-crisis can force a team into necessary changes — or bring it closer together.

Argentina’s defeat by Saudi Arabia four years ago is a good example, forcing Lionel Scaloni to shift from a 4-4-2 to a 4-3-3, introducing Enzo Fernandez at the base of midfield.

It seems that, to win a World Cup, a team wants a little bit of adversity — just not too much. All five of these teams did still go on to win the group, which feels important to note.

Based on those parameters, of the sides to complete the group stages, it means the following countries could win the World Cup: the United States, Switzerland, Brazil, Germany, and the Netherlands. Big-name teams who need to avoid winning the last game include France, Argentina, and Colombia.

Apologies to co-hosts Mexico, who won all three of group games for the first time in its history on Wednesday. Not this year, guys.

Who is winning the third-place race?

The permutations of the next three days are not going to be straightforward. When 32 nations competed, progression to the knockouts only relied on whether a team finished first or second in the group — the tournament moving straight on to the last 16. We no longer have the luxury of simplicity.

At this World Cup, with 48 teams competing, organisers have introduced an extra knockout stage, the round of 32, to protect the straight elimination format. As ever, the top two teams in each group will automatically qualify — but so will the eight best third-place teams.

Clearly, 12 into eight does not go. It is easiest to imagine that all 12 third-place teams will effectively be placed into a mini group of their own, ordered according to their record. This is the latest, as it stands, with Scotland on the verge of elimination.

Progression will be based on: firstly, the number of points, if tied, the side with the larger goal difference, if level still, the team that has scored more goals. And if they still cannot be separated? It then goes to fair-play record, followed by a drawing of random lots.

In theory, if Belgium draws 1-1 with New Zealand and Cape Verde 0-0 with Saudi Arabia (along with another couple of internal group results going their way), both sides could be tied on three points, a goal difference of zero, and with two goals scored. Cape Verde, having remarkably committed only a single foul in its goalless draw with Spain, has the better disciplinary record.

Once the top eight teams are decided, FIFA has then devised a mathematical formula based on each team’s group to decide its round-of-16 opponent — England, for example, can only play a third-placed side from group E, H, I, J, K. It is too complicated to dive into the equations that devise the pairings in detail — but The Athletic’s handy bracket calculator can show who is likeliest to play who.

Arguably, this format places teams playing in the earlier groups at a disadvantage — they are unlikely to have entered their final game knowing what result they needed to progress, while automatic qualifiers may not know their opponents until just two days before the match.

The flip side is that they are likely to get more rest — but considering Gianni Infantino’s hydration break-related insistence that FIFA wanted “fairness and equity”, this appears a departure from that.

Is Tunisia the worst side in World Cup history?

This year, DR Congo made its first appearance in a World Cup for 52 years — last appearing as Zaire back in 1974 as the first sub-Saharan nation to qualify for the tournament. It lost all three games that tournament, failing to score and conceding 14 goals.

The backlash against Zaire was fierce and unwarranted, as this piece explains, — ending in that side of trailblazers earning a reputation as the worst side in World Cup history, having finished with a worse goal difference than any team to have played a full three-game group stage.

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Tunisia, however, has mounted a firm challenge to that status after their displays in North America. Having topped its qualifying group by 13 points, the Eagles of Carthage were not supposed to be this poor.

Placed in a group with the Netherlands, Sweden, and Japan, Thursday’s loss to the Dutch ensured it lost all three games while conceding 12 goals, scoring just twice and sacking head coach Sabri Lamouchi one game into the tournament. Tunisia’s scorelines were 1-5, 0-4, and 1-3.

While its goal difference of -10 was better than Zaire, Tunisia has far fewer excuses. For one thing, Zaire was placed in a group which included Brazil, Yugoslavia, and Scotland. According to the year-end Elo rankings, which predated FIFA’s official world rankings, Brazil was third, Yugoslavia was eighth, and Scotland 11th.

Tunisia, by contrast, was in one of the weaker groups in the tournament. The Netherlands is only ranked seventh, with Japan 17th, and Sweden, who barely qualified via the playoffs, all the way down in 36th. The other CAF sides, by contrast, have been far better, with no other African nation having yet been knocked out of the competition.

Tunisia's Hannibal Mejbri offs out his cheeks following his team's loss to the Netherlands

Tunisia endured a miserable World Cup campaign (Li Ying/Xinhua via Getty Images)

Since 2000, just two teams have been winless throughout the group stages and finished with a worse goal difference than Tunisia. North Korea (-11), has the excuse of being drawn alongside Brazil and Portugal, along with the other disadvantages which come from representing a pariah state. It is difficult to say that Tunisia truly outperformed North Korea.

Luckily for Lamouchi and Herve Renard’s side, the Saudi Arabia team of 2002 comes riding to the rescue — having conceded a goal difference of -12 while facing one strong nation in Germany, but two far weaker teams in the Republic of Ireland and Cameroon.

Tunisia is not quite the worst team in World Cup history — but it is close.

What to know about Friday’s games

Groups G, H, and I come to their conclusion, with the day’s highlight arguably Spain’s clash with Uruguay in Guadalajara. I’ll be there with you for that one.

After the draw with Cape Verde, Spain needs to beat Uruguay to be certain of top spot in Group H — a result which would provide possibly the biggest shock of the World Cup so far, with Uruguay going out in the groups. Tiny Cape Verde, remarkably, only needs a draw to guarantee progression.

Group I is first up on Friday. France and Norway boast perfect records and are guaranteed to finish first and second in the group — owing to their better goal difference, it is the French that will win the group in the event of a draw. Coach Didier Deschamps will miss the game after the death of his mother. If Senegal beats Iraq, it should go through as a best third-place team, but a large winning differential will be in its favour.

And finally, the exceedingly tight Group G. Egypt is in pole position and would win the group with a win over Iran, while a draw should also be enough, provided Belgium does not thrash New Zealand. Iran could yet steal the group with a win, if it betters Belgium’s result.

After two successive draws, Belgium has taken its ability to top the group out of its hands — but a draw against New Zealand, which is still chasing a first win at a World Cup, will mean progressing second or third. A loss? Belgium is out.

Friday’s Fixtures:

Group I: Norway vs France (3pm ET; 8pm BST)
Group I: Senegal vs Iraq (3pm ET; 8pm BST)
Group H: Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia (8pm ET; 1am BST)
Group H: Uruguay vs Spain (8pm ET; 1am BST)
Group G: Egypt vs Iran (11pm ET; 4am BST)
Group G: New Zealand vs Belgium (11pm ET; 4am BST)