So, with James making his fourth substantial foray into free agency, let's break down how much everyone can afford to pay him. We will be dividing the NBA's 29 non-Laker teams into four groups: teams with cap space, teams with all or part of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (up to $15 million or so), teams with the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6.1 million or so) and teams that can only offer the minimum ($3.9 million or so). Four quick notes before we begin:

• Teams with cap space also have access to the cap room mid-level exception of around $9.4 million. So even if those teams do spend their space elsewhere, they can pivot back to James with that tool.
• We are not going to directly hold a "sign-and-trade" tier because the Lakers may not have the means to facilitate one. In order for a team to sign-and-trade a player, it needs to be able to actually sign that player to the contract in question first, which means either preserving cap space until they're ready or hanging onto their Bird Rights. The Lakers may not be willing to do either as they look to spend their space on other players. There are teams with large trade exceptions that can absorb James at high salaries, but given the complications here, we aren't going to cover them specifically. Otherwise, all you really need to know on this front is that teams acquiring players through sign-and-trades are hard-capped at the first apron, so you're mostly dealing with cap space and mid-level teams... at least at first. Which leads us to our next point:
• Spending power in the NBA is very fluid. The opening bell of free agency rings at 6 p.m. ET. Money is going to start flying around almost immediately. This information will be accurate as of Tuesday afternoon, but it will change quickly. Remember, though, that teams can usually create financial flexibility if they absolutely need it. The waive-and-stretch provision exists. Teams can trade into the mid-level exception now. There are more savings mechanisms than ever, so if James tells any team, "you're offering X, but I need Y," there are usually going to be paths to getting there if the team is motivated enough. Sure enough, the Cavaliers traded Jarrett Jack to the Nets in 2014 to clear the space they'd need to sign James for the max.
• We are only covering spending power here. Therefore, whether signing James would push the team into the luxury tax will be irrelevant for our purposes. Frankly, the amount of money a team stands to gain by employing James would probably offset or exceed any tax implications of signing him. 

With all of that in mind, let's begin.

The cap space teams

Teams: Nets, Pistons, Bulls, Clippers

I'll start with the obvious question: Is there a world in which free agency goes poorly enough for the Lakers that they circle back? I think the answer is no... but say they give a restricted free agent a big offer sheet and it is matched. They'll be sitting on a mountain of cap space a week into July, when most of the free agents presumably will be gone. Maybe there's a way to mend fences for enough money. We won't consider that concept too closely here, though. Let's talk about the four other cap space teams.

• The Nets still haven't officially made the Julius Randle trade yet. They are seemingly delaying it in order to maximize their cap space. They can still get just above $40 million. They're not exactly winners, but if James wants to try living in New York and making a lot of money, I suppose they're an option.
• The Pistons are the lone contenders in this tier. They re-signed Kevin Huerter, but that can go into the room exception if needed. Detroit can create more than $34 million in space if needed, but doing so means waiving Duncan Robinson and Tolu Smith. Keeping those two takes the Pistons below $21 million in space. We're also assuming that the Pistons keep Jalen Duren's cap hold on the books, but if they let him leave on an offer sheet elsewhere, that opens up more than $19 million in spending power. The Pistons could also wind up operating above the cap if they want to retain some of their own players. In that case, they'll have access to the full mid-level exception.
• The Bulls are looking at around $33 million in cap space if they want it, and they have been linked to Norman Powell on a big, short-term deal with it.
• The Clippers are the only other local option for James if he wants to remain in Los Angeles. We'll have to watch for the specifics of the Kawhi Leonard trade, but for now, if they waive Kris Dunn, they can get to around $26 million in cap space.

The full mid-level teams

Teams: Hawks, Celtics, Hornets, Mavericks, Warriors, Pacers, Grizzlies, Heat, Bucks, Pelicans, 76ers, Trail Blazers, Kings, Spurs, Wizards

This is our biggest group, so let's just dive right in.

• Look... if the decision is happiness-based... it's not going to be the Kings, the Bucks, the Grizzlies or the Pelicans. Bad teams in small markets aren't getting James. Just to cover our bases, though, the Kings technically can't offer the full mid-level exception yet. They're over the first apron. But they're presumably going to waive and stretch the partially guaranteed DeMar DeRozan, freeing up around $22 million. That takes care of that. The Pelicans have a bit less than $14 million in first apron room as of now, and the Grizzlies and Bucks have more than enough to give James the full mid-level.
• Let's lump together the genuine contenders with the full mid-level amount. We have two, and they're interesting for different reasons. The Celtics have around $22 million in first apron space. That's enough to give James his $15 million or so. But Boston is among his greatest rivals, and unlike Golden State, the Celtics can't sell him on uniting with a fellow all-timer like Stephen Curry. Still, if he wants to win, Boston is a real option. The other, of course, is San Antonio. Even after re-signing Harrison Barnes and Julian Champagnie, the Spurs can throw the full mid-level exception at James. He could compete for a championship and officially hand the "face of the league" baton to Victor Wembanyama. He has a long-standing respect for Gregg Popovich, who is no longer coaching but still in the organization. This is one of the most sensible options on the board... if he's willing to live in San Antonio.
• The Warriors get their own blurb. We've written about this fit extensively. The exact amount Golden State has to offer will depend on how much is needed to retain Draymond Green and whether or not the Warriors can shed a mid-sized salary (Moses Moody makes the most sense), but in all likelihood, it will be the full mid-level exception. Right now, you'd have to categorize the Warriors as the frontrunners given all of the reporting behind their interest.
• Two notable contenders can offer chunks of the full mid-level, but not the whole thing. The Pacers have just under $10 million in first apron room. I doubt James would go to Indiana, but that would be a chance for him to contend. The other team in this bucket would be the Heat. Miami has around $18 million in first apron space right now but, with only 10 players under contract, still needs to fill out at least four roster spots. The Heat could therefore offer somewhere in the $11-12 million range with minimums filling out the rest of their roster. Pat Riley has said he would "leave the key under the doormat" for James should he ever want to return to Miami, and the Heat just acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo in a win-now move.
• They're not a contending-caliber team, and they've cleared out a lot of people that James had relationships with (most notably Jason Kidd and Nico Harrison), but the Mavericks can still offer the full mid-level exception to reunite James with Kyrie Irving. Should James want to reunite with Anthony Davis in Washington (if the Warriors can't secure a trade for him), the Wizards also have enough first apron space to offer the full mid-level exception.
• I'll just call these the "no notable connections or notes, but have the full mid-level" group of teams: the Blazers (close to the Nike campus at least!), the Hawks (Atlanta is a well-liked city among NBA players), the Hornets (they could technically pay him much, much more thanks to the $40 million trade exception they got for LaMelo Ball, but we're not covering sign-and-trades here, so mid-level it is) and the 76ers (Rich Paul met with them on James' behalf in 2018, but that obviously didn't come to fruition).

The tax mid-level teams

Teams: Rockets, Timberwolves, Knicks, Magic, Suns, Raptors, Jazz

We're starting to whittle the field down here. Some of these teams are pretty straightforward. Others are more complicated.

• The Rockets and Jazz are more of a "TBD" than anything else. They both have more than enough room under the first apron to offer James the full mid-level exception, but wouldn't dare create a first-apron hard cap while their notable restricted free agents, Tari Eason and Walker Kessler, respectively, are sitting on the market. That would open the door for another team to make them an offer they couldn't legally match. The tax mid-level triggers a second-apron hard cap, but that one is high enough that Utah and Houston could still feel confident in their ability to keep their restricted free agents.
• The Raptors are a "TBD" for a different reason. We're waiting on the structure of their trade for Kawhi Leonard. If it's just Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick going to Los Angeles, then the Raptors have a first-apron hard cap and are therefore basically only able to offer the minimum without further moves. Jake Fischer is reporting that no other players are involved. If they expand the trade to a third team or convince the Clippers to take on another minimum-salary player or two, they can send out more money than they take back with Leonard. That instead creates a second-apron hard cap, which would be much more manageable for Toronto. In that world, the Raptors could use the taxpayer mid-level exception to pursue James or someone else.
• The Suns can offer the full taxpayer mid-level exception, and with their roster essentially full, wouldn't have to worry about filling out the team afterward. They have been linked to guards with that tool, but I imagine they would make an exception for James. Given their standing in the Western Conference, though, we'll call this unlikely.
• One way or another, it seems as though the Timberwolves will get to the point where they can use the taxpayer mid-level exception. Right now, they have around $10 million in second apron space, but four roster spots to fill. But their LaMelo Ball trade is not yet official, and the hope would be that they could redirect Josh Green and his $14.7 million salary elsewhere to clear out a bit more space. If absolutely necessary, the Timberwolves could waive and stretch Green, though given how tight their long-term finances are, that would be a move best avoided unless absolutely necessary.
• The Magic have a bit less than $10 million in second apron space with three roster spots to fill. If they fill the first two with veteran minimums, they'd have a portion of the tax mid-level to offer. If one of those slots goes to a rookie minimum, they could potentially use the full tax mid-level.
• The Knicks are in a similar boat as the Magic. They have just under $9 million in second apron space with three empty roster spots. Sign two rookie minimums and there's still around $6 million left for a taxpayer mid-level contract. In the likelier event that they sign two veteran minimums, they'd barely be able to go above the minimum to sign James. They just won a championship. The appeal here likely would have been trying to be the savior who ended New York's drought. The window for this fit seems to have passed.

The minimum teams

Teams: Cavaliers, Nuggets, Thunder

And so we're left with three teams. Two of them are contenders with whom James would immediately enter the championship picture. The last is the sentimental homecoming, and since it's the most complicated, we'll save it for last.

• The Thunder are over the second apron for now. There's a good chance they eventually work their way underneath it, but if they do, it will only be just barely. Realistically, if Oklahoma City makes an offer, it will only be for the minimum.
• Denver is going to be far above the second apron if it retains Peyton Watson in restricted free agency and does not dump another big salary elsewhere. Either way, it's almost impossible to imagine the Nuggets offering more than the minimum. The Nuggets tried and failed to secure a meeting with James in 2018.
• Cleveland, right now, technically has almost $27 million in first apron space. The issue is that they haven't yet signed James Harden, who is widely expected to come back. In Philadelphia, he famously allowed the 76ers to sign him last, effectively taking whatever they had left after using their exceptions on Danuel House and PJ Tucker. Given how poorly that went, Harden probably won't be quite as flexible, so his salary will determine what is available to Cleveland. On top of this, Jake Fischer has reported that the Cavaliers are looking into trades involving Max Strus and Dennis Schröder. Those moves would be made seemingly to clear room for James. So for now... the minimum is the likeliest answer. However, depending on what Harden takes and whether or not Cleveland has a follow-up trade to make, they could potentially create one of the mid-level exceptions. If the Cavaliers are actively trying to shed money, it's probably because they believe they need a mid-level exception to have a realistic shot at James.