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Forecasting the World Cup bracket – and the best knockout ties that could be coming our way

Kylian Mbappe and Florian Wirtz during a France vs Germany game

France could face Germany in the last 16 Sathire Kelpa/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images

By Amelie ClaydonJune 23, 2026 Updated 7:45 am EDT

France vs Germany. Cristiano Ronaldo vs Luka Modric. Brazil facing the Japan side who beat them less than a year ago.

All three fixtures are possible before the quarter-finals as the World Cup knockout bracket begins to take shape — alongside Mexico vs England, Argentina vs Belgium and a meeting between Arsenal team-mates William Saliba and Viktor Gyokeres.

Some of those ties require little more than current group leaders holding their positions. Others depend on third-place permutations, favourable routes through the draw and several rounds of the favourites behaving like favourites.

We have used The Athletic’s forecasting tools to pinpoint some of the most exciting knockout matches that could be just around the corner.

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Round of 32

From 1998-2022, 32 teams entered the World Cup. Now there are 32 teams left after the group stage.

Expansion to 48 teams for the first edition of the competition staged across three countries increased the schedule from 64 matches to 104. Thanks to the addition of another round to the knockout phase, the number of knockout games doubled from 16 to 32.

This is what the additional round could offer…

France vs Sweden

France must win Group I, while Sweden would need to finish third in Group F, qualify as one of the eight best third-placed teams and then be assigned to the section of the bracket containing France.

The Athletic’s model gives France an 83 per cent chance of winning their group and Sweden a 67 per cent chance of finishing third and qualifying, although the allocation of the third-placed teams would still have to fall the right way.

The result would see Arsenal team-mates Saliba and Gyokeres face one another on the world stage.

Sweden’s pairing of Gyokeres and Liverpool striker Alexander Isak has the speed and power to give France’s centre-backs problems.

The Scandinavian side have shown how unpredictable they can be, scoring five goals against Tunisia and conceding five to the Netherlands. Against Kylian Mbappe and France’s runners, that fragility could prove fatal to their competition hopes.

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Netherlands vs Morocco

This is one of the more straightforward possibilities. The Group F winners play the Group C runners-up, with the Netherlands and Japan contesting one position and Brazil and Morocco the other.

The Athletic’s forecast gives the Netherlands a 63 per cent chance of winning Group F and Morocco a 69 per cent chance of finishing second in Group C.

Three members of Morocco’s squad — Noussair Mazraoui, Sofyan Amrabat and Anass Salah-Eddine — were born in the Netherlands and came through the Dutch football system.

The Netherlands will want their full-backs, particularly Denzel Dumfries, advancing high enough to become auxiliary forwards, but Morocco’s threat comes from exploiting those spaces, with Achraf Hakimi, Brahim Diaz and Ismael Saibari able to turn a defensive action into an attack. Their draw with Brazil showed why this tie could be far from routine for the Netherlands.

Portugal vs Croatia

Both countries would have to finish second — Portugal in Group K and Croatia in Group L — for former Real Madrid team-mates Ronaldo and Modric to face each other again after their Nations League meeting in September 2024.

This is one of the less certain possibilities, with the forecast giving Portugal a 35 per cent chance of finishing second in their group, while Croatia are rated at 57 per cent to do the same. Portugal won their last meeting 2-1, with Ronaldo scoring the 900th goal of his career.

Ronaldo is 41 and Modric 40. They spent six seasons together at Real Madrid and won four Champions Leagues, but this could be their final meeting on the international stage.

Portugal would have the deeper supporting cast, but their opening draw with DR Congo showed how their control of the ball can fail to produce chances. They had 75 per cent possession and completed 783 passes, yet managed seven shots and only one on target — Joao Neves’ sixth-minute goal.

Croatia would welcome the opportunity to slow the match, close the spaces and allow Modric to set the rhythm. Neither captain could assume another World Cup game lay ahead.

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Brazil vs Japan

Brazil must win Group C and Japan finish second in Group F for the teams to meet in the round of 32. Japan would not need to imagine how an upset might happen. In a Kirin Challenge Cup friendly in Tokyo in October 2025, they recovered from 2-0 down to beat Brazil 3-2 — their first senior victory over the Selecao in 14 meetings.

Ayase Ueda scored the winner that night and the Feyenoord striker scored twice in Japan’s 4-0 victory over Tunisia at this World Cup. Japan also came from behind twice to draw 2-2 with the Netherlands in their opening game.

Brazil would be favourites, but Japan would enter with recent proof that they can beat them.

Japan celebrate scoring against Brazil in October 2025 (Masashi Hara/Getty Images)

Last 16

By this stage, the third-place permutations will have disappeared and the routes through the bracket will be clear.

The possible ties become bigger, too. Several require the leading nations to win their groups and avoid an upset in the round of 32, but the bracket could still produce four meetings with historical or major tournament significance…

Germany vs France

Germany are already confirmed as Group E winners. France must finish above Norway in Group I, and both teams would need to survive their opening knockout matches.

The teams have met four times before at the World Cup. France beat West Germany in 1958, Just Fontaine scoring four goals in a 6-3 win in the third-place playoff. Since then, West Germany beat France on penalties after a 3-3 draw in the 1982 semi-final in Seville, recovering from a 3-1 deficit in extra time. In Mexico four years later, West Germany defeated France at the same stage. And in 2014, Germany eliminated France in the quarter-finals on the way to winning the tournament.

Germany will want to commit players around Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz and control the ball high up the pitch. The risk is that France are at their most dangerous when opponents leave space behind them for Mbappe to exploit.

Brazil vs Norway

Brazil must win Group C and Norway finish second in Group I before both advance from the last 32.

Brazil would likely be favourites, but history offers them a warning. Norway have never lost to them, winning twice and drawing twice in four senior meetings.

Their most celebrated victory came at the 1998 World Cup, when a late Kjetil Rekdal penalty sent Norway into the knockouts. The present side possess an even more obvious match-winner.

Erling Haaland has scored four goals in his first two World Cup appearances, with Martin Odegaard providing the supply. Brazil would expect to have more of the ball, but Norway might need only one transition or delivery into the penalty area to alter the tie.

Mexico vs England

Mexico have already secured first place in Group A. England must win Group L — The Athletic’s model gives England an 89 per cent chance of finishing top — after which both sides would need to navigate through the last 32

The setting would give the tie much of its power, with Mexico attempting to escape a familiar national frustration — they have not reached the World Cup quarter-finals since hosting the tournament in 1986.

A meeting with England, carrying the force of a home crowd in Mexico City and the confidence of two group victories, would feel like an opportunity to break that cycle.

England have the stronger squad, as their four-goal opening win over Croatia demonstrated. But that match also became chaotic, and Mexico would try to turn this into a contest of emotion and endurance rather than allow England to control it.

Argentina vs Belgium

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Argentina have won Group J with a game to spare and Belgium would need to finish second in Group G, with both then progressing from the last 32 to recreate a fixture with considerable World Cup history.

Belgium defeated the defending champions in the opening game of the 1982 tournament. Four years later, Diego Maradona scored twice to eliminate them in the semi-finals, while Gonzalo Higuain decided the 2014 quarter-final in Argentina’s favour.

The current balance appears tilted towards the holders. Argentina have built a compact collective around Lionel Messi, who has begun the tournament with five goals.

Belgium would require Kevin De Bruyne to escape Argentina’s midfield pressure and deliver before their defensive structure had time to settle.