Fact-checking Trump's claims about 401(k) gains during his second term

This article originally appeared on PolitiFact.

President Donald Trump has often talked up the stock market's rise during his second term, saying increases in 401(k) retirement plan balances have made Americans wealthier.

During a June 23 speech at a Mack truck plant in Macungie, Pennsylvania, Trump said, "The typical 401(k), as you know, is up almost $30,000 in … 13 months."

He's made similar points going back to his Feb. 24 State of the Union address.

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The stock market has risen during Trump's second term. But the average $30,000 gain he cited is not supported by data; that's about triple the increase found in a large analysis of 401(k) balances. And a growing share of Americans are withdrawing 401(k) dollars before retirement to cope with unexpected hardships.

The White House offered no supporting evidence for Trump's statement. White House spokesperson Kush Desai said "equity markets have hit multiple all-time highs" during Trump's second presidency.

How much has the stock market increased during Trump's second term?

The Standard & Poor's 500, a metric that charts a broad selection of publicly traded stocks, shows notable gains since Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2025.

Between his second inauguration and the day of his February 2026 State of the Union address — the first time he mentioned the $30,000 figure — the S&P rose by about 13%. From his second inauguration to June 23, the day of his Pennsylvania speech, the S&P rose by about 24%.

401(k) balances are rising, but not as high as Trump said

What about the gains for typical 401(k) holders?

First, narrowing down a "typical" 401(k) account is challenging. People of different incomes, ages and company 401(k) policies can see their balances vary widely — and that's before factoring in the mix of assets that make up their accounts.

"The (higher account balance) you have, the more gains you will have achieved," said Joe Fitter, a senior lecturer in finance at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business.

Fidelity Investments, a financial institution that operates many 401(k) plans, provides the best available data.

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Every quarter, Fidelity examines balances within more than 26,000 corporate 401(k) plans serving roughly 25 million participants. It also breaks down the average balance by the account holder's age.

We looked at Fidelity's data for the quarterly period ending Dec. 31, 2024, and for the period ending March 31, 2026. Comparing these two figures offers a measure of the growth in 401(k) balances during the first 15 months of Trump's second term — a good approximation of how much growth occurred during the period he's been making this claim.

Fidelity offered breakdowns for 11 age ranges, starting at age 20 and ending at 70 and older. Averaging the gains for these 11 ranges produced an increase of $9,454 — about one-third of the $30,000 figure Trump cited.

The single biggest average increase for any particular age range was 55 to 59, which saw a rise of about $16,000.

Experts said the average gains might be lower than $9,454.

"Averages in data like this tend to get pulled up by high-balance accounts, so the median would likely be lower than the $9,000 figure," said Mark A. Johnson, an investments and portfolio management fellow at Wake Forest University's business school.

A $30,000 gain during this period would likely have required a balance of at least $200,000 in a 401(k), said Mark Williams, a lecturer in finance at Boston University's Questrom School of Business. But that's not a typical amount; about 10% to 20% of U.S. adults have an account that big.

In addition, the balance increase doesn't stem only from stock market gains. Some of the increase comes from the account holder's own contributions and potentially those of their employer.

Why 401(k) balances may not be rising as fast as the overall stock market

The percentage increases by age in Fidelity's 401(k) data do not necessarily match the overall growth rate of the stock market. From December 31, 2024, through March 31, 2026, the S&P 500 rose by about 11%, but the average 401(k) Fidelity measured rose by about 6.5%, and several age ranges, especially among the youngest and oldest groups, saw smaller increases.

One reason for the lag is that 401(k) accounts typically contain a mix of investment categories. Williams said the typical 401(k) mix is 60% to 65% stocks, with the remainder in other assets, such as bonds, that are less volatile. During the time period in question, bond returns were flat, he said, and that would hold down overall 401(k) returns.

Another important reason is that 401(k) accounts are a two-way street: Account owners can take out money, though they may have to pay a penalty to do so.

In general, 401(k) accounts are designed to provide retirement income, so early withdrawals — money taken out before age 59 1/2 — may incur a 10% early withdrawal penalty, plus income taxes.