Exclusive | GOP claims it will pick up NY House seats despite Trump’s unpopularity
Exclusive | GOP claims it will pick up NY House seats despite Trump's unpopularity
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Skip to main content Metro exclusiveGOP claims it will pick up NY House seats despite Trump’s unpopularity
By Carl Campanile Published June 28, 2026, 7:09 p.m. ETSee more of our coverage in your search results.
Add The New York Post on GoogleRepublicans are in a strong position to pick up congressional seats in New York in November, a defiant new GOP analysis claims — while Dems laughed off the notion as “fantasy.”
The analysis by the National Republican Campaign Committee suggests that GOP gubernatorial candidate and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman will run strong in the suburbs and upstate against Democratic incumbent Gov. Hochul — providing headwinds for party House candidates in some of the regions’ swing districts.
“In New York, Republicans are in the strongest electoral position possible because while Kathy Hochul and Zohran Mamdani run the Empire State into the ground, Republicans are delivering,” said NRCC Committee spokeswoman Maureen O’Toole.
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“Taxes are down, communities are safer, and New Yorkers have President Trump and Republicans to thank for it.”
But the analysis ignores how deeply unpopular Trump is in the state: A Siena College poll released last week found that only 32% of New York voters view him favorably, while 63% view him unfavorably.
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In the suburbs, where some key House races are being held, only 33% viewed Trump favorably and 60% unfavorably.
New York State Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs laughed off the GOP analysis.
“I don’t think anyone is going to believe this fantasy,” Jacobs said. “Donald Trump is the most unpopular president since Richard Nixon.”
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But Blakeman won re-election as Nassau County executive last year by an impressive 11 percentage points after winning 50.3% of the vote in 2021, when he toppled Democratic incumbent Laura Curran, the NRCC analysis noted.
Republicans also swept every countywide office in Nassau on Long Island in 2025.
Within the 3rd Congressional District occupied by Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, Blakeman carried Suozzi’s hometown of Glen Cove.
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In House District 4, occupied by first-term Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, Republicans also recorded a clean sweep of the Long Beach City Council elections last year, making the town council dominated entirely by the GOP for the first time in 54 years.
The House GOP analysis shows that President Trump carried the 3rd House District by 4.3 percentage points over Democratic presidential hopeful Kamala Harris in 2024 and lost District 4 by only a half-percentage point.
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In a surprise, Suozzi only squeaked by GOP former Assemblyman Michael LiPetri by 3 percentage points in the House District 3, which includes parts of Queens as well as Long Island, two years ago.
LiPetri is the GOP nominee in what could be a competitive rematch this year.
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But the Cook Political Political Report, an independent grader of elections, said House District 3 “leans Democrat” this year.
It also said House District 4 “leans Democrat.”
Gillen faces off against Hempstead Receiver of Taxes Jeanine Driscoll, whom the Nassau GOP nominated after Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, currently the inspector general in the US Labor Department, declined to run.
Despite winning statewide by 6.4 percentage points in 2022, Hochul lost to former Long Island Rep Lee Zeldin by 8.5 points in District 3 and by 5.8 points in District 4, the GOP analysis noted.
In the Hudson Valley’s 17th District, two-term Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler faces a tough re-election bid against Army veteran Cait Conley, who won her Democratic primary election last week.
Lawler won re-election by 6 percentage points in 2024 after toppling ex-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in a squeaker in 2022.
Hochul lost District 17 to Zeldin by 3.2 percentage points in 2022.
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In the upstate 19th Congressional District, Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker is challenging first-term Democratic incumbent Josh Riley.
Oberacker’s state Senate district makes up 37% of NY-19, which the GOP claims gives him a shot to win the seat, according to the NRCC analysis.
While favored to win a second full, four-year term as governor after replacing Andrew Cuomo, Hochul is not popular. In the Siena poll, 43% view her favorably and 44% unfavorably.
But Hochul leads Blakeman 52% to 32% in the horse race for governor.
Jacobs, who also serves as the Nassau County Democratic leader, said the GOP analysis is flawed for ignoring current conditions on the ground as opposed to focusing on prior years’s results.
“You can’t fight last year’s war. You fight the next one. Elections aren’t about years past but about the future in the now,” he said.
Filed under- Bruce Blakeman
- democrats
- donald trump
- jay jacobs
- kathy hochul
- midterm elections 2026
- mike lawler
- NY governor election 2026
- republicans
- tom suozzi
- us house of representatives
- 6/28/26
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Badenoch blasts 'moaning' female Labour MPs over Burnham jobs 'quota'
Kemi Badenoch has told Labour women to earn a job in Andy Burnham's Cabinet instead of demanding they are handed jobs because of their gender.
The Tory leader lashed out today amid reports that female MPs are demanding the de-facto new prime minister introduce a 50:50 gender split 'quota' in his government.
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister also complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts.
But in a scathing article in the Times today Mrs Badenoch told them to 'stop moaning' and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'.
'There are many, many reasons why you shouldn't have any Milibands in the cabinet,' she said.
'But complaining that the boys haven't given them the right jobs or that the boys are taking all the jobs, just shows that Labour's women still don't get it.'
The idea of quotas was also attacked by Baroness Jacqui Smith, Labour's Skills Minister.
Asked by Times Radio if Mr Burnham should reserve jobs for women, she said: 'No, I think what Andy Burnham should be doing is building the very best team around him to change this country.'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband (above, right, in 2010) is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts
But Mrs Badenoch told them to pipe down and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party and seen by the BBC has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs after he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer.
'We are asking you to demonstrate this change from day one and address the toxicity and misogyny within our own party and government,' it said.
Labour has never had a female leader, while the Conservatives have had three, and Mrs Badenoch urged the government to follow its meritocratic example.
'If you run a meritocracy, then you do not have to worry about jobs for the boys,' she wrote.
'Every woman who is a Conservative MP, every woman who has ever won the leadership, has had to fight to get where she is.
'By contrast, Labour women are demanding guarantees from Burnham. But the truth is he doesn't have to give any guarantees.
'If none of Labour's women are prepared to get their hands dirty and challenge him for the leadership, their demands are toothless.'
'In fact, it's quite revealing that the women's parliamentary Labour Party has written to Burnham asking him to commit himself to at least 50 per cent female ministers.
'This has nothing to do with meritocracy. It is yet more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country.'
