Deaths will now outnumber births every year in England and Wales
Deaths have begun to outnumber births in England and Wales as the start of July marked a grim milestone dubbed ‘Death Day’, according to new analysis.
Official projections showed deaths would outpace births every year from 2026 and researchers said Britain entered a ‘new demographic era’ as this threshold was crossed yesterday.
The public will now attend more funerals than christenings as 450,000 more deaths than births are projected over the next decade due to a ‘collapse’ in the birthrate.
Earlier this year the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revised down estimates for the growth of the UK population in the coming decades due to declining birthrates and a fall in net migration.
New Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) analysis of official projections suggests the threshold at which deaths started to outnumber births in England and Wales was crossed on 1 July. This will now be the new normal.
Edward Davies, the think tank’s research director, described it as a ‘worrying milestone’ that reflects ‘decades of failure to adequately support family life’.
The fertility rate - the average number of children women are expected to have - has been falling steadily since 2012 and it hit the lowest level ever recorded last year at just 1.39.
This is well below the 2.1 children per woman required to maintain a stable population without immigration and a far cry from the concept of ‘2.4 children’ in a stereotypical British nuclear family.
The fertility rate has fallen to just 1.39 children per woman - well below the 2.1 children per woman required to maintain a stable population without immigration (stock image)
Falling birthrates have been blamed on couples delaying plans to have children due to the cost of housing and childcare, more women prioritising careers and couples opting to have smaller families.
The CSJ has warned that that the birthrate ‘collapse’ will cause government spending to soar, with public debt forecast to his 270 per cent of GDP in order to pay for Britain’s ageing population.
The think tank said that if Labour attempted to maintain today’s ratio of workers to pensioners, the state pension age would need to rise such that children aged 8 and under today would not retire until they are 75.
Mr Davies said: ‘For as long as family continues to be the F-word of politics, the government will not be in control of the seismic demographic shifts which are wreaking havoc on the public finances and depriving millions of their dreams of parenthood.’
He added: ‘We need to prioritise marriage, help young men step up to the plate, and make it easier for couples who want children to afford to have them.’
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Deaths set to outnumber births in the UK: 'Hard questions for the future'
Deaths have outnumbered births in just a handful of years since the late 1890s - in 1976, during the pandemic in 2020, and again in 2023. However this is now projected to be the case every year after 2026.
Declining birth rates in recent years have been masked by record levels of immigration, which has seen the population grow rapidly despite births and deaths remaining roughly level.
The proportion of babies born in the UK to foreign parents has also increased during that period. Official figures show that four in ten babies born last year had at least one parent who was born outside the UK.
Meanwhile some areas such as the West Midlands and London have seen the number of births increase, while other places including the North East and South West have seen a decline in the number of births.
Overall, the population is expected to grow by about 1.7 million people by 2034 up to a total of 71 million, with this increase driven entirely by migration.
The population is projected to begin to decrease in the mid-2050s, sooner than previous estimates which suggested it would continue to grow until 2096.
These projections were revised downwards due to the birth rate and falling net migration - the difference between the number of people coming to the UK and those leaving - following a record high in 2023 dubbed the ‘Boriswave’.
Madelyn Cline and Boyfriend Henry Smith Split After Brief Romance: Reports
Madelyn Cline and Henry Smith have called it quits on their relationship, according to multiple outlets.
People and TMZ report that the Outer Banks actress, 28, and the TikTok star, 29, have split after a brief romance.
Us has reached out to Cline and Smith for comment.
A source exclusively told Us in April that Cline and Smith were “dating” after they sparked romance rumors at a live show for “Brooke and Connor Make a Podcast” earlier that month. In a photo posted by DeuxMoi from the event, the pair were seen holding hands while sitting by each other in the audience.
Related: Celebrity Splits of 2026: Frankie Muniz, Paige Price and More Who Broke Up
A slew of breakups rocked the celebrity world throughout 2026, beginning with Bill Hader and Ali Wong in January. In March, NFL quarterback Dak Prescott and his fiancée, Sarah Jane Ramos, called it quits. News broke in April that The Real Housewives of New York City stars Sai De Silva and her husband, David Craig, […]Later that month, Cline appeared in Smith’s TikTok video as she celebrated Easter with his family. She laughed and joined Smith’s mother in a dance as she sang and Smith chuckled behind the camera.
“Here comes Peter Cottontail up and down the bunny trail,” Smith’s mom sang as she carried an Easter basket. “Hippity, hoppity!”
The trio then made an Easter-themed cocktail together.
“We are having a carrot mimosa because Madelyn had a special request that our cocktail not be too sweet and a little bit healthy,” Smith’s mom noted. “And everybody loves a carrot mimosa.”
They also attempted to dye eggs, but since Smith bought brown eggs instead of white, their crafting project was a bust.
Related: Madelyn Cline’s Dating History: The ‘Outer Banks’ Star’s Love Life Includes Costars and Comedians
Madelyn Cline is no stranger to a high-profile romance following the 2020 premiere of Netflix’s Outer Banks. As fans shipped Cline and costar Chase Stokes on screen as Sarah Cameron and John B, respectively, they were getting cozy in real life. Cline and Stokes hard-launched their relationship in June 2020 with an Instagram post. “Cat’s […]At the time, fans reacted to the video by speculating about Cline and Smith’s relationship status.
“Skipped the Easter eggs and went straight for the hard launch,” one person wrote, while another asked, “Something you’d like to share with the class sir?”
“I’m officially RSVP’ing to the wedding now thanks,” a third user replied. A fourth noted, “Mama loves Madelyn. Good job Henry Henry Henry.”
Later in April, Cline and Smith were spotted at Coachella. The duo also appeared in more TikTok videos together after Us confirmed they were dating, including a post where the two danced to Zara Larsson’s hit song “Lush Life” during their weekend at the music festival.
Cline’s love life has been in the headlines since she rose to fame in 2020 with her role as Sarah Cameron on Outer Banks. She and Chase Stokes, her costar on the Netflix show, dated from 2020 to 2021.
Related: ‘Outer Banks’ Cast’s Dating Histories: Madelyn Cline, Chase Stokes and More
Madelyn Cline, Chase Stokes and more Outer Banks stars manage to keep the romance alive offscreen — and their real-life love stories make fans go wild. The Netflix series became a major hit when it premiered in April 2020, and soon after, viewers began to wonder whether sparks were flying between Sarah and John B. […]Cline was subsequently linked to DJ Zack Bia from 2021 to 2022 before dating musician Jackson Guthy from 2022 to 2023 and Pete Davidson from 2023 to 2024. She later sparked romance rumors with Prince Constantine Alexios in 2025.
In August 2025, Cline shared the “best love advice” she’s ever received while reflecting on her own dating history.
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Deal of the Day
Stop Scrolling! This 46%-Off Floral Bikini Looks Like a Resort Boutique Find View Deal“Fall in love, don’t be afraid of it,” she told People at the time. “Look, historically, I haven’t been, like, the most successful [at love], so don’t take advice from me until I figure it out.”
She added, “But yeah, my advice is don’t be afraid to fall in love.”
Earlier that year, Cline opened up about the effects of dating Stokes, 33, in the public eye, revealing on a March 2025 episode of Jake Shane’s “Therapuss” podcast that she “didn’t realize what the repercussions [were] of inviting so many people into something, let’s be honest, something that’s intimate.”
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