CCJ report: U.S. murder rate drops 21%, on track for lowest level in modern records
OAN Staff Brooke Mallory
4:59 PM – Wednesday, July 1, 2026
The United States murder rate has plummeted to what experts project is its lowest level since at least 1900.
According to an extensive annual crime trends report released by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), homicides nationwide have fully reversed their staggering pandemic-era spikes.
Data analyzing major American municipalities suggest that murders plummeted by roughly 21% from 2024 to 2025, marking the single-largest one-year percentage drop recorded in modern U.S. history.
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Breakdown of Murder Stats
Although the CCJ report states that the projected 2025 rate of ~4.0 per 100,000 would be “the lowest rate ever recorded in law enforcement or public health data going back to 1900,” FBI data (uniform crime reports) provides the most commonly cited modern national homicide/murder statistics, and reliable, standardized national FBI estimates begin around 1960.
The previous modern low was 4.4 – 4.7 in 2014, and similar levels in the late 1950s/early 1960s. Pre-1960 data, going back to 1900, comes primarily from public health records.
These are not as complete or nationally representative as later FBI data — as early 20th-century coverage was limited to certain states and had underreporting issues. Adjusted historical estimates often put early 1900s rates higher than the raw reported figures, which sometimes looked artificially low.
Critics of the report have called the phrasing misleading since FBI’s consistent apples-to-apples national tracking starts later, and the true modern-era lows are in the 1950s–60s and 2014.
LOWEST murder rate since 1960!
— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) June 30, 2026
This is what happens when you let the world’s best cops DO THEIR JOB!
DKP🇺🇸 https://t.co/3OfxmsF4il
I don’t care what people think about me, but the RESULTS at this FBI under President Trump speak for themselves.
— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) June 30, 2026
-DKP🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/yQjUkByOdF
“The United States almost certainly had the lowest murder rate ever recorded in 2025, with the FBI having data back to 1960,” stated crime data analyst Jeff Asher. “And the available evidence suggests that we’re going to go even lower this year.”
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CCJ Report
The massive drop in lethal violence is part of a sweeping, broad-based decline across nearly every category of criminal offense. Alongside the historic drop in homicides, the CCJ data revealed that 11 of 13 tracked crimes fell significantly over the same period.
Gun assaults dropped by 22%, robberies declined by 23%, and carjackings fell by an astonishing 43%.
Criminologists note that the data signals a complete deflation of the sudden, chaotic crime wave that gripped the country between 2020 and 2022, when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted social institutions and pushed the national murder rate to a modern high of 6.8 per 100,000. The year 2020 also saw a significant surge in civil unrest, marked by widespread protests and outbreaks of violence tied to the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement.
Nonetheless, public safety officials who previously feared that the country had settled into a permanently violent “new normal” are now looking at unprecedented peace across major hubs, with cities like Richmond seeing a 59% drop, Los Angeles down 39%, and Atlanta recording fewer than 100 homicides for the first time since before the pandemic.
While politicians across the ideological spectrum have been quick to claim credit for the positive shift, CCJ researchers argue that the record-low numbers are driven by a “complex, multifactorial web of social recovery and focused intervention” rather than a single policy.
While the drop to a 125-year low is a major achievement for public safety, crime data analysts remind the public that a rate of 4.0 per 100,000 residents still equates to roughly 13,000 to 14,000 preventable American deaths per year.
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Spain vs. Austria odds, prediction, time: 2026 World Cup Round of 32 picks from expert on 12-5 roll
Spain looks to continue their march towards their second World Cup championship since 2010 when they battle Austria in a 2026 World Cup Round of 32 matchup on Thursday. Spain, who are third in the FIFA rankings, won Group H by outscoring opponents 5-0. Austria, meanwhile, finished second in Group J. They defeated Jordan 3-1, lost to Argentina 2-0 and played to a 3-3 draw with Algeria. Austria is looking for its best World Cup finish since taking third in 1954.
Kickoff for Spain vs. Austria is 3 p.m. ET from Inglewood, Calif. The latest Spain vs. Austria odds from FanDuel Sportsbook list Spain at -300 (risk $300 to win $100) on the 90-minute money line, with Austria at +900 and a draw at +425. The over/under for total goals is 2.5. Spain are -950 to advance, with Austria at +610. Before locking in any Spain vs. Austria picks or World Cup 2026 predictions, check out the Spain vs. Austria predictions from SportsLine's Jon Eimer.
Eimer is a high-volume bettor who has vast knowledge of leagues and players across the globe. Since joining SportsLine, he has covered the English Premier League, Champions League, Serie A, the FA Cup, and much more. He's been red-hot on his soccer betting picks in 2026, posting a 31-13-2 record and returning over $1,200 of profit on his Champions League picks. He's also off to a fast start in the World Cup and is on an 25-15-2 run (63%) on WC picks. Anyone wanting to follow his World Cup betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could see big returns.
Now, Eimer has studied Spain vs. Austria and just revealed his 2026 World Cup picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several World Cup odds and soccer betting lines for Austria vs. Spain:
Spain vs. Austria 90-minute money line | Spain -320, Austria +950, Draw +420 |
Spain vs. Austria over/under: | 2.5 goals |
Spain vs. Austria to qualify for next round: | Spain -950, Austria +610 |
Spain vs. Austria picks: | |
Spain vs. Austria streaming: | Fubo (Try for free) |
Top Spain vs. Austria predictions
After examining Spain vs. Austria from every angle, Eimer is leaning Under 2.5 total goals (+106). Eimer sees Spain as being the much more talented side, but hasn't played at their best yet. Austria, meanwhile, are taking part in the World Cup for the first time since 1998 and have been one of the more exciting teams so far.
"This is one of the harder to predict Round of 32 matches for me," Eimer said. "If Spain was playing how they should be playing it would be easy, but right now it's a coin-flip of which Spain side shows up." With all of the uncertainties entering the match, Eimer is taking the Under. See Eimer's best bets for Spain vs. Austria at SportsLine, and you can bet the Under in Spain vs. Austria at FanDuel here:
How to make Spain vs. Austria picks
After studying the Spain vs. Austria matchup from every angle, Eimer has found a critical x-factor and locked in two plus-money best bets. You can head to SportsLine to see what they are.
So what are the best bets for Spain vs. Austria? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for Spain vs. Austria, all from expert on a 25-15 roll on World Cup picks, and find out.
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