Burnham’s Makerfield win doesn’t guarantee his success as PM
John Curtice
Burnham’s Makerfield win doesn’t guarantee his success as PM
- Monday, June 22, 2026, 3:13 PM
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John Curtice
Burnham’s Makerfield win doesn’t guarantee his success as PM
Thursday’s by-elections gave new hope to both the Conservatives and Labour. Both parties have been in the doldrums in the polls for more than a year – with Keir Starmer, at least, paying the ultimate price for his party’s unpopularity this morning. As Andy Burnham and the other victors arrive in Westminster to be sworn in as MPs, Labour and the Tories are hoping their respective successes in Aberdeen and Makerfield portend that they can now get the wind in their sails once more and re-establish their current tenuous relationship with the electorate.
The Conservatives fought Aberdeen South by emphasising their support for the continued exploration and extraction of the remaining oil and gas reserves in the North Sea. Aberdeen was, of course, just the place where such a message would have had resonance – once the oil capital of Britain, it has fallen on harder times now that the height of the North Sea bonanza is well behind us.
Burnham will have to champion the interests of the whole country, not just Manchester
In sharp contrast to the Scottish parliament election at the beginning of May, when Tory support fell to a new all-time low (and fell just as much in Aberdeen as everywhere else) voters appeared to respond. The 25-point increase in the party’s share of the vote in 2024 is the biggest ever rise on its general election vote that the Conservatives have registered in a by-election. Winning just under half the vote, the party secured by far its highest-ever vote share locally in what has hitherto always been a closely fought constituency.
But the key question now is whether this strategy is replicable more broadly. This week, those living in traditionally Tory territory of the South of England are facing the prospect of a record heat wave. On previous occasions, intense heat has served to increase public concern about the impact of climate change. Kemi Badenoch, who has taken much of the credit for the success in Aberdeen, may find herself having to explain how her party’s stance will help avoid the potentially damaging consequences of climate change.
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My night with Woah VickyPerhaps the answer to the replicability challenge lies in the Conservative party taking a similar approach to the difficulties being faced by the economy more broadly? Can it find a policy position that provides an effective critique of the government’s stewardship, convinces voters that a Conservative government would deliver economic growth, and draws voters away from the ‘culture war’ politics that is attracting voters to Reform? At the moment at least, that requirement is still to be fulfilled.
For some commentators, the Tory victory in Aberdeen South contained another encouraging implication – that the conviction of Peter Murrell for embezzlement had damaged the SNP, whose vote fell by four points. However, in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry SNP support increased by six points. Unlike the debate about the future of North Sea oil and gas, there is no reason to believe that Murrell’s conviction should resonate more in Aberdeen than in Arbroath. In truth, the results of two Scottish by-elections provide no clear indication either way as to whether the SNP have lost support as a result of the Murrell conviction.
In contrast, Labour’s fate in the two Scottish by-elections was dire – a drop of 19 points in Aberdeen and 18 points in Arbroath. As Keir Starmer acknowledged in his resignation speech this morning, the contrast with Andy Burnham’s success in Makerfield, where Labour’s vote increased by 10 points, simply underlined the apparent gap between Labour’s electoral attractiveness under the Prime Minister and the apparent potential for a brighter future for the party under Burnham.
However, much like the Tory success in Aberdeen, many of the ingredients of Burnham’s success in recording the first increase in government support in a by-election since Boris Johnson’s victory in Hartlepool five years ago are not necessarily replicable across the country as a whole.
Burnham lives just outside the constituency of Makerfield and was previously MP for nearby Leigh. He has acquired a personal popularity as Mayor of Manchester – in 2024, his share of the vote in the mayoral election was 16 points above what his party won in the general election a few weeks later. He has portrayed himself as the champion of the interests of Manchester and, more broadly, of the north of England, against a politics that he feels is too dominated by Westminster. He was nevertheless able to appeal in the by-election both to those still loyal to Labour and those who had become disenchanted with Sir Keir’s leadership.
But in making the now seemingly inevitable transition to Downing Street, Burnham will have to champion the interests of the whole country, not just Manchester. He will also need to develop a narrative about the kind of country he wants to create rather than simply articulating people’s disappointment at the present state of affairs.
That was a transition that Sir Keir never managed to make – a weakness that both Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski have been able to exploit. Yet one of the ironies of Burnham’s victory speech on being declared the winner of the Makerfield by-election was its emphasis on much the same kind of undefined ‘change’ that Labour offered under Starmer in 2024. He promised to ‘bring about the change the country needs’ and argued that his party had a ‘final chance to change’.
What we will now need to hear – from a politician who has something of a reputation for flip-flopping – is just what his vision of change for Britain as a whole is.
Badenoch blasts 'moaning' female Labour MPs over Burnham jobs 'quota'
Kemi Badenoch has told Labour women to earn a job in Andy Burnham's Cabinet instead of demanding they are handed jobs because of their gender.
The Tory leader lashed out today amid reports that female MPs are demanding the de-facto new prime minister introduce a 50:50 gender split 'quota' in his government.
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister also complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts.
But in a scathing article in the Times today Mrs Badenoch told them to 'stop moaning' and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'.
'There are many, many reasons why you shouldn't have any Milibands in the cabinet,' she said.
'But complaining that the boys haven't given them the right jobs or that the boys are taking all the jobs, just shows that Labour's women still don't get it.'
The idea of quotas was also attacked by Baroness Jacqui Smith, Labour's Skills Minister.
Asked by Times Radio if Mr Burnham should reserve jobs for women, she said: 'No, I think what Andy Burnham should be doing is building the very best team around him to change this country.'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband (above, right, in 2010) is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts
But Mrs Badenoch told them to pipe down and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party and seen by the BBC has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs after he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer.
'We are asking you to demonstrate this change from day one and address the toxicity and misogyny within our own party and government,' it said.
Labour has never had a female leader, while the Conservatives have had three, and Mrs Badenoch urged the government to follow its meritocratic example.
'If you run a meritocracy, then you do not have to worry about jobs for the boys,' she wrote.
'Every woman who is a Conservative MP, every woman who has ever won the leadership, has had to fight to get where she is.
'By contrast, Labour women are demanding guarantees from Burnham. But the truth is he doesn't have to give any guarantees.
'If none of Labour's women are prepared to get their hands dirty and challenge him for the leadership, their demands are toothless.'
'In fact, it's quite revealing that the women's parliamentary Labour Party has written to Burnham asking him to commit himself to at least 50 per cent female ministers.
'This has nothing to do with meritocracy. It is yet more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country.'
Venezuela Fury and Noah Price subsidising their life by livestreaming
Venezuela Fury and her husband Noah Price look to be making their own way in the world by raking it in from their lucrative social media accounts.
The influencer daughter of Tyson and Paris Fury, 16, has become an internet sensation after tying the knot with her husband Noah, 19, earlier this year.
Since getting married and moving in together the couple have been earning thousands of pounds a month, livestreaming their life as newlyweds in their static caravan in the East Riding of Yorkshire.
And fans can't get enough of their regular life updates on TikTok and Kick, which have proved to be very profitable for the pair.
They look to be supporting themselves after Noah denied that he was given £5million by Venezuela's family as a wedding gift.
Despite his wife's huge family wealth, an estimated combined £160 million, Noah recently told his Kick followers that he 'pays for everything' for the couple.
Making light of the claims about Venezuela's millionaire financial status, Noah said: 'I actually pay for everything unfortunately. You'd expect the millionaire to pay for it wouldn't you.'
Venezuela Fury and Noah Price are earning thousands livestreaming their caravan life - after her new groom insisted he pays all the bills and denied he had £5m handout from her dad
The influencer daughter of Tyson and Paris Fury , 16, has become an internet sensation after tying the knot with her husband Noah, 19, earlier this year
Venezuela then asked their fans: 'Do you think I am a millionaire?'
Noah joked: 'She isn't a secret millionaire guys', before she broke into song and sang: 'But I live like a millionaire!'
But it seems according to estimated calculations from their social media work, Noah and Venezuela can more than afford to support themselves.
Noah has been livestreaming on platforms such as Kick and TikTok, where viewers can send paid gifts or donations.
He was previously encouraging viewers to send gifts on his honeymoon during livestreams, suggesting this is one revenue stream.
Both Noah and Venezuela have built substantial followings on Instagram and TikTok. They can potentially earn money through sponsored posts, brand collaborations, affiliate links and creator payouts.
Kick allows its creators to take home 95 per cent of the £4.99 subscription cost that fans pay.
Streamers keep 100 per cent of direct tips and donations, minus minor standard payment processing fees.
It is unclear how many subscribers Noah currently has because this information is hidden, but he does have 7,200 followers which is publicly viewable.
An industry insider has suggested Noah is making around £400 per video on TikTok, while Venezuela is likely to make £2,000 due to her following count of 1.3 million.
An industry insider has suggested Noah is making around £400 per video on TikTok, while Venezuela is likely to make £2,000 due to her following count of 1.3 million
In one video on their honeymoon, Noah asked his followers if they'd give them some more gifts now that they were married.
In a TikTok live viewed by 20,000 he said: 'Keep liking our videos people, keep sending gifts.'
After saying thank you to several of his followers he joked they should stick around on the livestream and 'watch Venezuela punch me in the mouth'.
The other half of the honeymooning couple said: 'I am, honestly!'
Noah previously confirmed that the pair don't share their finances after they were asked whether they have a shared bank account.
'She earns her money, I earn mine,' said Noah, as Venezuela joked: 'Yeah, what you gonna do about it.'
Noah went on to debunk the rumour that Tyson gave him £5million when he tied the knot with his daughter as he insisted: 'No Tyson did not give me £5million'.
Meanwhile Venezuela is being eyed up by executives for a fly on the wall TV series.
Noah went on to debunk the rumour that Tyson gave him £5million when he tied the knot with his daughter as he insisted: 'No Tyson did not give me £5million'
Boasting 1.3 million TikTok followers, Venezuela is already entertaining fans with her honest musings and candid moments, from cooking to kitting out her and Noah's static caravan home.
And following the success of the Netflix series At Home With The Furys, it is no wonder bosses are wanting to draw on the Fury popularity.
A TV insider said: 'The couple are not A-list celebrities but everyone has become obsessed with their love story.
'People are genuinely intrigued by them. Whether it’s the fact they have married so young, Venezuela’s famous family or their gypsy lifestyle, they have the ‘X factor'.
'Several TV executives think a proper fly-on-the-wall series following their lives as newlyweds in the gypsy community would be fascinating,' they told The Sun.
It is thought Netflix would be likely to produce the series due to their already established relationship with the Furys.
Venezuela's representatives told The Daily Mail: 'We have many offers on the table regarding Venezuela which we are discussing.'
