Biden's illegal immigration surge caused higher rent and home prices, Fed study finds
Politics Biden's illegal immigration surge caused higher rent and home prices, Fed study finds
A 1% increase in unauthorized workers raised US home prices by roughly 2.2% and rents by 1.4%
By
Amanda Macias Fox News
Published
June 29, 2026 9:33am EDT close 
Video Construction leader warns America is 250K workers short as housing costs soar
As builders grapple with rising costs and stalled projects, Jim Tobin of the National Association of Home Builders says a worsening labor shortage is making America’s housing affordability crisis even more difficult to address.
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!A new Federal Reserve working paper found the record surge in illegal immigration during the Biden administration came at a cost to one of the nation's fiercest political debates: higher home prices and rent rates.
The findings arrive as immigration remains a defining political issue, with Republicans arguing former President Joe Biden's border policies strained housing and public resources while Democrats have pointed to immigration as helping ease labor shortages and support economic growth.
The new report, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas by compiling individual immigration court records and government administrative data, is among the first comprehensive efforts to measure how the unprecedented wave of illegal migration between 2021 and 2024 impacted local economies and affected local labor markets.
A PROBLEM HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT IS KEEPING AMERICANS FROM BUYING HOMES
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas report, a 1% increase in unauthorized immigrant worker flows raised local home prices by about 2.2% and rents by roughly 1.4%. (Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
The authors cautioned that the paper is a preliminary draft circulated for professional comment and that its findings do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
Researchers found the influx of illegal immigrants boosted local employment with little measurable effect on wages, but came with a trade-off of increasing housing demand enough to drive up home prices and rents.
The researchers found that illegal immigrant worker inflows increased local employment "approximately one-for-one," meaning a 1% increase in unauthorized workers relative to a local area's workforce corresponded with roughly a 1% increase in overall employment. The study found no evidence that the immigration surge lowered average wages.
THE KEY STRATEGY RED STATES ARE USING TO LOWER HOUSING COSTS REVEALED
The Trump administration made securing the border and deportation a priority in its first months of 2025. (Gregory Bull/Associated Press)
That 1% increase in illegal immigrant worker flow, however, raised local home prices by about 2.2% and rents by roughly 1.4%, while finding little evidence that new housing construction expanded enough to absorb the increased demand, according to the study. So while wages remained relatively stable due to the influx of illegal immigration, housing prices and rent surged and left American workers struggling to keep up.
The housing crisis has heavily impacted affordability in the U.S. and is a key midterm issue for many voters on both sides of the political aisle.
Researchers concluded the influx of illegal immigrant workers acted as a housing demand shock in markets where supply remained relatively constrained.
The authors argued the increase in housing demand outpaced homebuilding in many areas, amplifying price pressures where housing supply was already limited.
ONE TYPE OF PROPERTY IS QUIETLY SAVING AMERICANS THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS
Housing industry leaders say states that have prioritized homebuilding have been better positioned to accommodate population growth and economic expansion. (Joshua Lott/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
The economists estimate illegal immigrant worker flows accounted for roughly 30% of employment growth in the average local labor market between March 2021 and March 2024.
They also estimate those inflows explained about 30% of home-price growth and roughly 20% of rent growth in the average metropolitan area over the same period.
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The findings suggest the recent immigration surge had different effects across sectors—expanding the labor force without significantly affecting wages while increasing demand in housing markets where supply struggled to keep pace. The estimates refer to the average metropolitan area in the study and do not suggest immigration was the sole driver of rising housing costs nationwide.
VideoThe paper describes the years between 2021 and 2024 as an "unprecedented boom" in illegal immigration. Citing Congressional Budget Office estimates, the authors said net unauthorized immigration added roughly 7 million people to the U.S. population during that period before slowing sharply beginning in mid-2024.
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The researchers also examined government spending and found areas with larger increases in unauthorized immigrant workers experienced declines in government transfer payments.
They suggested the finding could reflect stronger employment and lower use of safety-net programs among working-age immigrants, while acknowledging the result differs from some previous survey-based research.
Read the full report here:
Amanda Macias covers the intersection of business, economics and politics, with a focus on how policy decisions shape markets, businesses and American workers.
Badenoch blasts 'moaning' female Labour MPs over Burnham jobs 'quota'
Kemi Badenoch has told Labour women to earn a job in Andy Burnham's Cabinet instead of demanding they are handed jobs because of their gender.
The Tory leader lashed out today amid reports that female MPs are demanding the de-facto new prime minister introduce a 50:50 gender split 'quota' in his government.
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister also complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts.
But in a scathing article in the Times today Mrs Badenoch told them to 'stop moaning' and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'.
'There are many, many reasons why you shouldn't have any Milibands in the cabinet,' she said.
'But complaining that the boys haven't given them the right jobs or that the boys are taking all the jobs, just shows that Labour's women still don't get it.'
The idea of quotas was also attacked by Baroness Jacqui Smith, Labour's Skills Minister.
Asked by Times Radio if Mr Burnham should reserve jobs for women, she said: 'No, I think what Andy Burnham should be doing is building the very best team around him to change this country.'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband (above, right, in 2010) is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts
But Mrs Badenoch told them to pipe down and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party and seen by the BBC has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs after he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer.
'We are asking you to demonstrate this change from day one and address the toxicity and misogyny within our own party and government,' it said.
Labour has never had a female leader, while the Conservatives have had three, and Mrs Badenoch urged the government to follow its meritocratic example.
'If you run a meritocracy, then you do not have to worry about jobs for the boys,' she wrote.
'Every woman who is a Conservative MP, every woman who has ever won the leadership, has had to fight to get where she is.
'By contrast, Labour women are demanding guarantees from Burnham. But the truth is he doesn't have to give any guarantees.
'If none of Labour's women are prepared to get their hands dirty and challenge him for the leadership, their demands are toothless.'
'In fact, it's quite revealing that the women's parliamentary Labour Party has written to Burnham asking him to commit himself to at least 50 per cent female ministers.
'This has nothing to do with meritocracy. It is yet more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country.'
