Are more World Cup upsets to come? Here are 4 picks for group-stage surprises
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Day 14 Best BetsUpset PicksGolden Boot RaceFavoritesFrance Clear FavoriteAre more World Cup upsets to come? Here are 4 picks for group-stage surprises
Elijah Just and New Zealand are long shots to beat Belgium, but have a game plan that could frustrate the Red Devils. Emilee Chinn / Getty Images
By Graham RuthvenJune 24, 2026 3:30 am EDT UpdatedIn many ways, this has been the World Cup of the underdog. Cape Verde and Curaçao have both made history at the tournament and there will be further underdog stories written before the final in New Jersey on July 19.
With the World Cup moving into the final round of group stage fixtures, there could be even more scope for upsets as some of the stronger sides rotate their squads in preparation for the knockout rounds.
Here are four matches to look out for before the group stage concludes.
Ecuador-Germany
One point from two games against Ivory Coast and Curaçao certainly isn’t the points haul Ecuador would have hoped for heading into their final group game against Germany, but there’s still reason to believe they can spring something of a surprise against the four-times World Cup winners.
Ecuador’s defence remains their strongest asset. They conceded just five goals in 18 qualifiers and have looked solid at the back at the World Cup so far, only conceding a late goal to the Ivory Coast and keeping a clean sheet against Curaçao.
It’s at the other end of the pitch where Ecuador have experienced issues. If, however, Enner Valencia can find his shooting boots or Germany allow a lapse in concentration, this could be a tactical match-up that suits the South Americans more than the two games they have underwhelmed in so far.
Turkey-USA
No matter what happens in Turkey’s final group game, their World Cup campaign has been a failure. Widely tipped to make it out of Group D, Vincenzo Montella’s side are already out of the competition following back-to-back defeats to Australia and Paraguay. Meanwhile, the USA have six points from a possible six so far.
However, that Turkey have flopped so badly is something of an anomaly considering they have produced 3.53 expected goals (xG). They have created opportunities to find the back of the net, but have lacked the finishing to convert any of them.
United States manager Mauricio Pochettino could also be tempted to rest some of his best players given the USA are already certain to be group winners. While Turkey are heading home early, they could at least salvage some dignity from a disappointing World Cup. They’re 9/4 to beat the USA.
Norway-France
In what will be one of the most tantalising fixtures of the entire group stage, dark horses Norway will meet two-times World Cup winners France in Boston on Friday. Both teams are already through to the knockout rounds, which could take the edge off the encounter, but top spot is still up for grabs.
Norway are 3/1 to get the better of Les Bleus, which considering their current form could be worth a look. Erling Haaland and co. have won their last 12 competitive matches in succession and certainly have the attacking and creative talent to make it 13. Haaland has scored in 19 of his last 21 competitive outings for Norway.
Of course, France have a frightening forward line of their own and Norway’s defence might be the weakest area of their team, explaining why Didier Deschamps’ team are 4/6 favourites to claim three points on Friday. Nonetheless, Norway could build more momentum with another impressive win at this tournament.
New Zealand-Belgium
While New Zealand suffered defeat to Egypt in a blow to their chances of making the knockout rounds, the All Whites have been surprisingly attack-minded at this World Cup. On the flip side of that, Belgium have struggled to find any sort of fluidity in the final third so far.
Belgium have found the back of the net just once in two outings. Jérémy Doku’s direct threat was missed in the goalless draw against Iran, but even when the Manchester City winger was involved against Egypt, Rudi Garcia’s team struggled for any sort of attacking output.
New Zealand might not have the talent of the Red Devils, but they have a clearer game plan which involves playing into Chris Wood as the focal point and getting runners around the Nottingham Forest striker. A New Zealand win (priced at 11/1) would eliminate Belgium from the World Cup and might be a greater possibility than seemed realistic before the start of the tournament.
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Badenoch blasts 'moaning' female Labour MPs over Burnham jobs 'quota'
Kemi Badenoch has told Labour women to earn a job in Andy Burnham's Cabinet instead of demanding they are handed jobs because of their gender.
The Tory leader lashed out today amid reports that female MPs are demanding the de-facto new prime minister introduce a 50:50 gender split 'quota' in his government.
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister also complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts.
But in a scathing article in the Times today Mrs Badenoch told them to 'stop moaning' and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'.
'There are many, many reasons why you shouldn't have any Milibands in the cabinet,' she said.
'But complaining that the boys haven't given them the right jobs or that the boys are taking all the jobs, just shows that Labour's women still don't get it.'
The idea of quotas was also attacked by Baroness Jacqui Smith, Labour's Skills Minister.
Asked by Times Radio if Mr Burnham should reserve jobs for women, she said: 'No, I think what Andy Burnham should be doing is building the very best team around him to change this country.'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs
Amid reports that former foreign secretary David Miliband (above, right, in 2010) is being lined up to return to the role, possibly with his brother Ed as Chancellor, one female minister complained that Burnham could not have 'more Milibands than women' in the top posts
But Mrs Badenoch told them to pipe down and get chosen on merit instead of retreating into 'more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country'
A letter written by the Women's Parliamentary Labour Party and seen by the BBC has called on Mr Burnham to ensure a 50:50 split between men and women in government jobs after he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer.
'We are asking you to demonstrate this change from day one and address the toxicity and misogyny within our own party and government,' it said.
Labour has never had a female leader, while the Conservatives have had three, and Mrs Badenoch urged the government to follow its meritocratic example.
'If you run a meritocracy, then you do not have to worry about jobs for the boys,' she wrote.
'Every woman who is a Conservative MP, every woman who has ever won the leadership, has had to fight to get where she is.
'By contrast, Labour women are demanding guarantees from Burnham. But the truth is he doesn't have to give any guarantees.
'If none of Labour's women are prepared to get their hands dirty and challenge him for the leadership, their demands are toothless.'
'In fact, it's quite revealing that the women's parliamentary Labour Party has written to Burnham asking him to commit himself to at least 50 per cent female ministers.
'This has nothing to do with meritocracy. It is yet more of the failed identity politics that is holding back our country.'
