World Cup

Group F

A World Cup in limbo: What now for fans as they wait to see if team qualify for last 32?

Scotland fans look glum as they watch the match against Brazil Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images

World Cup trips on a fixed budget or timeframe are relatively easy to organise. The cost is the cost. For anybody with a job, the time off work is the time off work. Supporters fly in, supporters fly out and it stacks up like a standard summer holiday (with the added bonus of football, and without the guarantee of family fall-outs).

But what of those who make the World Cup an open-ended adventure? The fans who decide to follow their country to a glorious or bitter end, irrespective of the cost or the risk of aggravating employers? And what if the difference between extending the party or flying home is a raft of games that neither they nor their nation are involved in or capable of controlling? In the context of the 2026 finals, what if continuing in the tournament relies entirely on FIFA’s third-place table?

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Forecasts for all 48 teams

For instance, your country is Scotland. They played their last game on Wednesday — a mauling by Brazil — and the omens didn’t look great. They finished third in Group C so by tomorrow night, the Scots could be out. But if the improbable happens and results twist favourably for them, the affectionately-insane Tartan Army can expect to be in Mexico City to meet co-hosts Mexico next Tuesday. It’s the difference between many sober hours in cattle-class seats and another few days of hard drinking (which, of itself, increases the financial outlay substantially).

“After the full‑time whistle against Brazil, qualifying felt like a 50:50 shot at best, so extending the trip seemed the sensible call,” says Stewart Mackinlay, one of a dozen Scotland fans in a group still in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. “Five groups later, every result has gone against us, and we’re still hanging around, hoping something finally breaks our way.

“The extra hotel nights are piling up and the cost of a new flight home is looming in the background, but we’re staying put and waiting it out. At this point, all we can do is hope for a miracle.”

When FIFA created the 48-team format for 2026, it created a last 32 in which eight of 12 third-placed finishers would feature. It’s not unknown for knockout places to be allocated in this way. At Italia 90, as good a comparison as any, the top two from all six groups went through automatically, followed by the four best third-placed nations. In the 32-team World Cup era, however, FIFA kept it simple as two countries from each section advanced to the round of 16. Goals and results could impact standings late on but once a group was complete, the fate of the countries in it was clear.

This edition’s third-place league is like little the tournament has seen before; a division in which — before a ball was kicked — 495 permutations of the final table were possible (the current state of play is shown here). The consequence is that the exact make-up of the round of 32 depends entirely on which permutation comes to pass. Needless to say, it’s complicated. And until the last group fixtures complete tomorrow (Algeria versus Austria and Jordan versus Argentina), the picture is subject to change.

For anybody with skin in the game, it creates a state of limbo. Scotland, Paraguay, South Korea, Senegal, Croatia — all are waiting for the cards to fall, some with their group matches finished and others with football still to complete. It isn’t helpful for players or coaches either. Those squads who are ultimately eliminated would, at previous tournaments, be long gone already, their summers starting. Those still involved would like to know who they face next, for preparation and analytical reasons.

Germany boss Julian Nagelsmann complained about the fact that his Group E winners are locked in for a last-32 tie in Boston on Sunday but, as yet, can’t be sure of the opposition. Paraguay, Sweden and Australia were all possibilities at the time (now, according to The Athletic’s tracker they are 99 per cent certain to face Paraguay). “I don’t think it’s ideal that you’re somewhat punished for winning the group,” he said. “I’m not a big fan of it.”

Supporters affected by the wait for clarity are weighing up their next move. Minsoo Kim, a 29-year-old from Seoul, had travelled to North America with the intention of staying for the last 32, provided South Korea got there and the game was in Los Angeles this weekend. He went to Monterrey, Mexico for a Group A defeat by South Africa on Wednesday, which might have eliminated them but absolutely confirmed they would not be playing in LA. Kim has chosen to depart the tournament early, for fear that other results send the Koreans to Seattle in the middle of next week.

Minsoo Kim had to cancel his flight (The Athletic/Tomas Hill Lopez-Menchero)

“It’s not just me, not just people who travelled from Korea all the way down here, but also Korean immigrants in Los Angeles who were rooting for the South Korean team to come to their home ground,” he said. “That’s gone now. Everyone’s feeling very upset.

“I had to cancel my flight back to Korea from LA. Other people cancelled their hotels, their flights, their rental cars. I don’t want to lose hope. Due to the new format, we still have a chance to make it to the next round but in the last World Cup, when we won against Portugal, we had to wait five additional minutes for the Ghana-Uruguay match (to finish — South Korea pipped Uruguay to a last 16 spot). The difference is that it’s three days now. I’m very nauseous, very anxious.”

Sweden supporter Lukas Hermansson, 27, was continuing to hedge his bets before their final group match against Japan yesterday. A 1-1 draw placed the Swedes third in Group F, good enough to qualify. It could have been Houston on Monday for Hermansson and his father (the city where they arranged to travel home from), but they’ll now go to New Jersey on Tuesday. “We’ll cancel the flight home,” he said, determined to stick around no matter what. This is only Sweden’s second World Cup since 2006. It’s the fourth time they’ve qualified in his lifetime.

“It’s a World Cup once every four years and Sweden don’t always participate so we don’t really have a choice,” Hermansson adds. “We’ve got to squeeze the wallet a little bit. What you’ve got to do, you’ve got to do.” Lukas Hermansson and his father before Sweden’s defeat by the Netherlands in Houston (Lukas Hermansson)

What complicates matters further is the complexity of FIFA’s algorithm for deciding how the final third-placed table translates into allocated positions in the last 32. It’s not as if finishing third in Group A, say, guarantees you a game in a certain host city. The match in Vancouver on July 2, in which Switzerland are confirmed, is a meeting between Group B’s winner and the third-placed teams from sections E, F, G, I or J.

It’s possible to crunch the numbers — and The Athletic’s mathematical whizzes have done so expertly — but as it stands, the most likely of Switzerland’s opponents is as follows: Egypt 23 per cent, Iran 21 per cent, and Algeria 17 per cent. Goal difference might be the deciding factor or goals scored or, failing that a team’s fair play record. That’s a lot of variables.

FIFA would say that the system has created tension and unpredictability, and they’re not wrong. The last round of group games are tomorrow, and places will still be on the line. But it’s also created a logistical nightmare for the many who are wondering if the show is over — or if this is just the interval.

Jun 26, 2026

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